“A new poll by YouGov shows that more voters now want Britain to remain in the EU than to leave, compared to a 6-point lead a week ago for those supporting a British exit.” -
OpenEurope
Have had a quick look at the survey (PDF link above).
These are my *quick* impressions, which are subject to revision and correction if anyone can improve on them.
Opinion polling is not an exact science and YouGov polls from a resident online panel. I’ve even heard that someone has been thrown off their surveys in the past after giving a ‘wrong’ answer.
YouGov has been headed by Peter Kellner, who is married to EU High Rep Baroness Ashton. He is still their President, and publishes articles talking up the EU
* the poll is deliberately weighted against those that don't vote for major parties. Much of the public is non party political and more inclined to take an interest in issues.
'Voting for others' was put at over 6% in the sample, but then under-weighted by nearly 80% down to 1.3%.
* some of its implications don't pass a common sense test - that Labour will have a runaway victory in the European Parliament elections, but UKIP might get beaten by the LibDems looks fantasy. It is also hard to see as representative that only 59% want a referendum on the EU, with 21% against.
* the poll over-weights Labour and LibDem supporters who are more likely to be pro-EU.
* questions with wording like 'party leader trusted to look after our best interest in Europe' and 'best deal' are leading, and rather disingenuous, given that in practice, it is not possible to return powers from within the EU. Recent events show that any process of trying to obtain concessions would be acrimonious.
As for the scenario with 'Britain's interests now protected', hardly surprising that it gets majority approval. We all know what the reality will be...
At least I don’t think that the current run of EU propaganda e.g. in the Telegraph will sway people long term, both due to a fatigue factor and an events factor. Any polls were also conducted in the dead period of January when there were few ‘news’ stories.
I would also say that Euroland ructions are a dead cert for 2013, even if Treaty changes are kicked into the long grass until after the German elections in September, and possibly after the EuroParls nine months later.
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