Monday, 21 January 2013

The Slow and Steady Rise of the Chinese Yuan

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For the full article text, please visit:  http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-slow-and-steady-rise-of-the-chinese-yuan-4772/

“Chinese citizens welcome US President Barack Obama's re-election, saying it would benefit bilateral relations,” reported China’s official news agency Xinhua in November.

 Any Chinese optimism surrounding Obama’s victory was surely not a reflection of the President’s handling of Sino-American relations, but relief at the election of the lesser of two evils. Mitt Romney’s eagerness to make the “China threat” a key part of his campaign and vow to label Beijing a “currency manipulator” on his first day in office elicited a scornful response: “If scapegoating and vilifying China are merely campaign tricks... it is time for whoever the president-in-waiting is to tone down his tough rhetoric and adopt a more rational stance,” read a Xinhua editorial.

While Obama has yet to accuse China of manipulation, he has come close. In February 2010, with the renminbi exchange rate hovering around 6.8 to the dollar as it had since Obama’s inauguration, the President stated that the US needed “to make sure our goods are not artificially inflated in price and their goods are not artificially deflated in price.” Several months later a bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill that made it easier for the US to impose punitive trade barriers against Chinese goods.

An announcement by Beijing in June of that year that the renminbi would be given greater flexibility was met with scepticism. The International Monetary Fund subsequently urged the renminbi to be allowed strengthen and at the November 2010 G20 summit in South Korea, amidst sharp allegations from President Obama that the Chinese currency was “undervalued”.

Yet despite the grandstanding during the US Presidential campaign, Beijing has proven to be true to its word. In late November last year the renminbi touched 6.2105, its strongest level since China floated the currency in 1994; representing an 8.5% appreciation since Obama took office. Up until April 2012, the renminbi was mandated to trade within a daily range of 0.5% from a reference rate set by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), but has since been free to move within a 1% band. Since the increase, the renminbi has reached the upper 1% limit on more than 100 trading days, which is evidence of a robust strengthening trend.

For the full article text, please visit:  http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-slow-and-steady-rise-of-the-chinese-yuan-4772/
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