Thursday, 1 January 2009

Biased BBC
Thursday, January 01, 2009
David Vance #

HAVE HAMAS LEFT HAMASTAN?

I am puzzled that the world media has not reported the startling news that Hamas have left Gaza. That is certainly the impression the BBC conveys because in its latest reports on the cleansing of Gaza, it reports that 391 "Palestinians" have been killed so far. Yes, but apparently not one of these has been a Hamas terrorist. So, as in Lebanon in 2006, the BBC refuses to number how many of the dead are Islamic Jihadi militia and instead lumps them all into one big convenient number which is then used to portray Israel as the cruel oppressor of poor innocent Arabs. I also note the continued pro-Hamas testimony of Jeremy Bowen, a man who makes Orla Guerin seem objective on Middle Eastern affairs! It would a lot more honest if the BBC just came clean, admitted they loath Israel and are license payer funded shills for the so-called Palestinians. The pretence of neutrality is so risible as to beyond parody.

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David Vance #

THE WAR AGAINST THE US CONTINUES.

Well here are in 2009. I turn on the radio to listen to the BBC propaganda headlines and am not disappointed! It reports that a new legal framework for the presence of US and UK forces in Iraq has come into effect today. What this means, according to the BBC, is that Iraq can stop and check US vehicles and that US soldiers can be tried in Iraq for crimes committed there. Obama may be preparing for the White House and the BBC will cut him some slack but the US military is always the enemy.

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IAF VIDEO : attack on mosque full of rockets. 31-12-08



Profile of Elite IDF Unit Operating in Gaza

Foreign Confidential....

 

Hamas Rockets Made in China

The Grad-model Katyusha rockets that were fired into Beersheba on Wednesday were manufactured in China and smuggled into Gaza after the Sinai border wall was blown up by Hamas in January, Israeli defense officials say. 

The Chinese rockets have a range of 40 kilometers. They are similar to the 122 mm Soviet-made Katyusha that was used extensively by Hizbullah during the Second Lebanon War and are slightly more sophisticated than an Iranian-made Grad-model Katyusha that is also in Hamas's arsenal.

The four rockets that hit Beersheba this week were filled with metal balls that can scatter up to 100 meters from the impact site, These rockets have also been fired into Ashkelon and Ashdod.

In addition to China, Russia and Bulgaria also manufacture Grad-model Katyushas.

 

Slain Terrorist Leader Was Muslim Cleric

Foreign Confidential....

The Jerusalem Post provides important background information on Nizar Rayan, the senior Hamas leader who was killed today in an Israel Air Force attack on his home. 

Rayyan [also spelled Rayan] was not only the religious leader of Hamas's military wing, Izzadin Kassam, but also one of their military commanders. He was often seen in uniform, and participated in military exercises. He was considered one of the most fanatical Hamas commanders, and was close to Hamas terrorist Salah Shehadeh, who was killed by the IAF in 2002.

He was both the director and the financier of the 2004 terrorist attack at Ashdod's port which killed ten Israelis.

In October 2001, he sent his son to perpetrate a suicide attack in the Gush Katif settlement Elei Sinai, in which two young Israelis were killed.

Channel 10 reported that Rayyan had replaced Sheikh Ahmed Yassin as the organization's top clerical authority after Yassin's assassination in 2004.

According to Palestinian sources, his family was warned before the attack but did not leave the building, Army Radio reported.

 

Israel Kills Senior Hamas Leader


Foreign Confidential....

Israel killed a senior Hamas leader in an air attack on his home on Thursday, striking its first deadly blow against the top ranks of the Islamist group in a Gaza offensive that has claimed more than 400 Palestinian lives.

Nizar Rayan, widely regarded as one of Hamas's most hardline political leaders, had advocated renewing suicide bombings inside Israel. Hamas police said another six Palestinians, including members of Rayan's family, were killed in the bombing.

Many Hamas leaders are in hiding, anticipating assassination attempts by Israel, whose military confirmed the air strike. Hamas Radio said Rayan rejected Hamas advice to leave his house.

A lecturer at Gaza's Islamist University, Rayan, 49, had mentored suicide bombers and would sometimes go on patrol with Hamas fighters. Hamas said Israel would pay a "heavy price" for his death, which was confirmed by medical officials.


Iron Fist

Hours before the killing, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel was fighting Hamas with an "iron fist," his words backed by a series of air strikes in the Gaza Strip but challenged by rockets that have killed four people in southern Israel.

Hamas and its militant allies fired more than 10 rockets Thursday, some hitting deep within Israeli territory, without causing injuries, the Israeli military said.

One rocket slammed into an apartment block in the port of Ashdod more than 30 kilometres (20 miles) from the Gaza border, the army said, adding that a warplane attacked the squad that launched the missile.

Two rockets fell without causing damage around the desert city of Beersheva, 40 kilometres (24 miles) from the border -- the deepest strike inside Israel.

Hamas's armed wing said it fired three rockets at the Hatzerim air force base west of Beersheva. The Israeli army did not comment.

Since Saturday, Hamas and its allies have fired more than 270 rockets and mortars into Israel, killing three civilians and one soldier and wounding several dozen people.


- Reuters, AFP

Yellowstone Park Shaken by Hundreds of Earthquakes

'Scientists are monitoring a cluster of earthquakes that have rattled Yellowstone National Park over the past few days amid concerns that a larger earthquake could be brewing.'

Read more...

Northern Ireland's Environment Minister: Man Made Global Warming Is a Con

'Spending billions on trying to reduce carbon emissions is one giant con that is depriving third world countries of vital funds to tackle famine, HIV and other diseases, Sammy Wilson said. The DUP minister has been heavily criticised by environmentalists for claiming that ongoing climatic shifts are down to nature and not mankind.

But while acknowledging his views on global warming may not be popular, the East Antrim MP said he was not prepared to be bullied by eco fundamentalists.'

Read more...

 

Eugenics Equals Fauxgenics: Canada's Awful Experiment With Genetic Manipulation

'As Canada's immigration population exploded in the 20th century, a reaction to it by white Anglo-Saxon Protestants was brewing in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Specifically, this reaction manifested itself into a pseudo-science puff program known as eugenics.'

Read more...

 

Czech Pres. Vaclav Klaus Enrages Eurocrats

'Vaclav Klaus, president of the Czech Republic, can drive communists, leftists, Greens, and one-world globalists to near apoplectic fury. However, the popular Czech statesman (finance minister, 1989-1992; prime minister, 1992-1997; president since 2003, reelected 2008) has become a hero to a growing tide of Europeans from Prague to London who are resisting the increasingly oppressive rule by the European Union's bureaucrats in Brussels and the socialist-dominated European Parliament in Strasbourg.'

Read more...

Predictions from the Great and the (Not So) Good for 2009

Iain Dale 5:00 PM

Adam Boulton's 10 predictions/provocations
The Steamie has some rather wild predictions
Tom Harris has suggestions for some new year's resolutions
Dizzy has nine predictions for 2009
James MacIntyre looks into his crystal ball
James Kirkup has only one prediction for 2009: Trouble for Nick Clegg
Global Dashboard has 10 foreign policy predictions for the year ahead
LibDem Voice's 10 questions for the LibDems in 2009
Robin Lustig has 10 predictions too

And in case you missed them, here are my own Ten Predictions for 2009

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2008




71% Oppose Euro - BBC
C of E Bets £150m on Gore's Green Fund - Religious Intelligence
Osborne Will Lose Shadow Chancellorship in 2009 - Boulton & Co.


2008 Blog Highlights : What a Lot You Got

January

February
MarchApril
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Today's Daily Reckoning

2008: A Year in Review, Part II
Ouzilly, France
Thursday, January 1, 2009

---------------------

*** Well, we’re glad to put that year behind us...a close call with a moat...a rare, but typical meltdown...

*** Bernanke won’t stand for deflation...thank God for gold...our first resolution for the year: stick to the basics...

*** Our Trade of Decade still stands strong...your last chance to join the Agora Financial Reserve...and more!


A New Year’s Resolution

Well...it’s over.

“I’ll be glad to put this year behind us,” said a fellow we met at a New Year’s Eve party last night.

“What a disaster. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

The fog was thick when we set out. We had been invited to a party about an hour away...but it was an hour of twisty roads we’d never been on before...in some of the thickest fog we’ve seen in years.

“Just stay on the little road...you’ll see the old castle in ruins on your left. Turn there...and take the bridge over the river...” we had been told.

It sounded easy enough. When we got to the village, there was the castle...a huge thing on a hill in the middle of town...but where was the bridge? We couldn’t find it. So, we drove around in the fog for another half an hour until finally getting our bearings. Then, walking to the house, we nearly fell into a moat.

“You didn’t tell us you had a moat around your house,” we told our hosts.

“Well, we didn’t think we needed to. You can see it. You’re supposed to stay on the path to the house.”

In the fog, we couldn’t see much of anything outside. But the house was warm and inviting, with a huge fireplace that must have dated from the medieval era.

“This part of the house is from the 14th century,” we were told.

In the fireplace was a huge crackling fire. We stood in front of it, with our backs to the fire, to warm up. Then, we commenced explaining.

“What is going on in the financial markets?” people wanted to know. They had heard we were an economist. They thought we might know something. We didn’t want to disappoint them.

“Yes...it’s a rare, but typical, meltdown. Like America in ‘29, but without the flappers. Like Japan in ‘89, but without the sushi. Nothing to worry about really. Just the end of the world as we have known it. Asset prices will fall – erasing trillions of dollars worth of ‘wealth.’ Millions of people will lose their homes. Millions will lose their jobs...their pensions and retirement savings...their self-respect. Hundreds of thousands of businesses will go broke. And the monetary system we’ve had since 1971 will collapse. Nothing special. And, oh yes, there will probably be a revolution in China.”

“Sounds terrible.”

“No, actually, that’s the good news. The bad news is that government meddlers all over the world are making the situation much worse. They don’t have any choice. They have to react. And the only things they can do are the usual claptrap remedies. More government spending. More giveaways. More bailouts. All they are doing is trying to avoid the ‘creative destruction’ that a real economy needs... and postponing the inevitable adjustments and corrections that must be made.

“But it gets worse. Because the world’s main debtor – the USA – is also the custodian of the currency that most of the world’s debts are denominated in. And Ben Bernanke is hellbent on making sure that the US does not follow the Japanese example...or the example from the U.S. in the ‘30s. He won’t stand for deflation. He’ll wants to fight it in the worst possible way, because he wants to go down in history as the first and only central banker to beat it. What’s the worst possible way to fight deflation? Print money. We call this policy ‘Gonoism,’ after Zimbabwe’s top man at its central bank – Gideon Gono. Gono did what neither the U.S. in the ‘30s nor Japan in the ‘90s was able to do. He made prices go up – 230 million percent in a single year. Of course, he destroyed the economy completely... So Bernanke won’t be the first. And we may not get to 230 million percent. Maybe 20%. But even that level the destruction will be massive.”

With introductions and explanations out of the way, we sat down for dinner...said goodbye to 2008 with champagne, kisses for the ladies, and handshakes for the menfolk...and then made our way home by 3AM.

Checking the news this morning...here’s the low-down from the last day of trading.

The Dow rose 108 points, after being up 184 points on Tuesday.

Oil rose $3 – to close the year at $42, which is $105 below its high for the year.

The dollar gained a little yesterday, ending the trading day at $1.39 per euro. And gold rose $14, to $884.

Thank God for gold. 2008 was a tough year for everyone....everyone, except for those who held gold and stuck to gold. Over the course of the year only two asset classes rose. US Treasury bonds and gold. One of these things, we believe, is in a durable, reliable bull market. The other is a fake-out. Which is which?

First, let’s look at what happened to most investors last year.

Those who had their money in U.S. stocks lost about 40%. Those who invested in Europe were down a bit more – about 45% – 50%.

Investors in Japanese stocks lost 42%.

And investors in Chinese stocks lost 70% of their money.

We interrupt to come to our first resolution for the New Year: We will stick to the basics.

Yes, Daily Reckoning readers got good advice last year. Stick to the basics; stick to the Trade of the Decade. Sell stocks on rallies; buy gold on dips. Now, we see the results for the year. The S&P is down 40%. Gold – bless its heart – is up 5%.

Unfortunately, good advice is easier to give than to take. Besides, we don’t trust any market forecaster – including ourselves. With the family money, we took the long view...and decided to diversify. ‘In twenty years, what is most likely to have made the most money,’ we asked ourselves.

Gold? No. Over long periods, gold makes no gains at all. It is only valuable when other gains are fraudulent...when there is a crash...or inflation. That is why it is so valuable now. We face all of those things.

But over the long run, gold does nothing and goes nowhere. That makes it a bad investment usually and a good investment occasionally.

The most obvious and most tradable long term trend is probably the regression to the mean in the world labor market. Broadly, a working stiff in Shanghai ought to make about as much as his counterpart in San Francisco. That will probably mean a huge rise in consumption in the Orient...with fast-growing economies and asset prices. Taking the long view, we invested in India and Vietnam – believing that they would be relatively safe from the worldwide financial meltdown we saw coming. We also invested in Japan, believing that after an 18-year slump, it was unlikely to slump more.

We were wrong about both those things. In the long run, we still have faith in India...we’re not so sure about Vietnam. And we still believe that Japan offers good value. But in the short run, we have lost money. Hence, our new year’s resolution: stick with the basics.

Sell stocks on rallies; buy gold on dips.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

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Today's Guest Essay

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: The beginning of a New Year is a good time to reflect on the months that just passed us by...and wonder how they will effect the months ahead. 2008 certainly had its fair share of ups and downs (mostly downs)...let’s see how the last six months of the worst year in stock market history treated us...

2008: A YEAR IN REVIEW, PART II

07/01/08 – The Greater Depression and What You Should Do About It
by Doug Casey – “For international investment expert Doug Casey, there’s more than a recession on the horizon. He recommends battening down now for the rough seas ahead...with some special information about making sure your investments can weather the coming storms. Read on...”

07/25/08 – Lovable Moronic Capitalists
by Bill Bonner “Modern economists are more like auto mechanics. They think they can control the economy with a screwdriver. And to some extent they’re right. Which is why the world economy is in such a mess; they turned the wrong screws.”

08/18/08 – Unemployment Survival Guide
by The Mogambo Guru – “Thanks to the horrors of inflation (brought on by the despicable government), many people are turning to subsistence farming just to survive. Of course, the Mogambo has a few other suggestions. Read on...”

08/27/08 – “People are Policy”
by Byron W. King – “Pity the next president. A worldwide economic slowdown, a flailing housing sector, and the need for the United States to become less dependent on foreign sources for their energy supply, lands squarely on his shoulders. Bryon King explains that while there are many new and exciting options out there that will change the landscape of how we utilize our energy supply, the real issue is knowing which one to pick. Read on...”

09/09/08 – Investing in the Age of Scarcity
by Chris Mayer – “In just the last couple of months, commodity stock prices have melted like ice cream on a hot summer day. Chris Mayer has been burning the phone line and firing off e-mails to people in the field about what they see. What he found, below...”

09/19/08 – The Dumbest Man in America
by Bill Bonner “AIG...Lehman...Fannie...they believed their own guff! It wouldn’t be the first time that something like this happened.”

09/26/08 – Too Big to Bail
by Bill Bonner “When everybody thinks the same thing, no one is thinking. And now, everyone thinks the market screwed up...and the bureaucrats rush in to unscrew things.”

10/09/08 – Welcome to Murphy’s Market
by Byron W. King “If you sold out of the stock market last year – or even back in June or early July 2008 – you probably feel pretty good right now. And if you took the cash and spread it around to a group of well-run banks, so as to take advantage of the FDIC insurance, then you must be feeling fine. Read no further. Take the rest of the day off. But if you still have some skin in the game, you’ll want to hear what Byron King has to say...”

10/30/08 – An Interview with Paul O’Neill
From the companion book to I.O.U.S.A. – “Today, we bring you another exclusive interview from the companion text to the documentary I.O.U.S.A. , with former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill. Read on...”

11/07/08 – Apocalypse Now
by Bill Bonner “The last time the sky fell was 96 years ago. Few saw it coming; no one panicked. But panic wouldn’t exist if it weren’t a useful instinct from time to time. The celestial bricks came unglued in August 1914...”

11/24/08 – Roasting G-20 Weenies on a Golden Spit
by The Mogambo Guru “Whenever you hear Keynesian economists try to wax philosophical about modern economic theory, the Mighty Mogambo’s chilling cackle can always be heard in the background. This week, he takes on the G-20 meeting, the abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement, and his not-so-secret plan to maintain personal wealth. Read on...”

12/04/08 – Gold Looks Bullish as the Dust Settles
by Ed Bugos “The price of gold is seeing a modest rally...and Ed Bugos wonders if it is just a ‘retracement rally’ that will give way to new lows, or if we’ve seen the bottom for the yellow metal, and this is just the first of many rallies to come. Read on...”

12/12/08 – Le Bubble Epoque
by Bill Bonner “All over the world, prices are falling. Inflation is no longer a sure thing. For the first time since the 1930s America, and many other nations, run the risk that inflation rates will turn negative.”

After dramas of 2008, prepare for unemployment to take centre stage

Sunday, September 14, 2008, symbolises for me the year when the unimaginable happened. Over a few frantic – and I have to admit at time surreal hours on that Sunday – we ripped up our business section time-and-time again as the night unfolded.

 

First to tell the breaking story of the failure of Lehman Brothers; then the collapse of Merrill Lynch into the arms of rival Bank of America; and finally a last ditch private-equity bid to rescue AIG from the brink.

In the period of just a few hours we witnessed three events that in any "normal" year would have been among the biggest stories of the year. In the taxi home at the end of the night I remember texting the night's headlines to my father (a former Merrill employee). I started my text by assuring him I was sober (and still sane).

It will, I suspect, be years before we discover quite how close we came in September to a full blown credit crisis.

(I hope to have retired by the time the Cabinet papers are released in 2038 – but given the current dire state of my pension fund I fear I may still be scribbling away).

Few expect 2009 to be as unprecedented as 2008. What we now face is a hard, relentless grind as the fallout from the credit crisis spreads into the real economy. While the collapse of financial institutions dominated 2008, I believe unemployment will dominate 2009.

The dire data of recent weeks is worth repeating. More than 75,000 extra people claimed Jobseeker's Allowance in November – the largest monthly increase for more than 17 years.

If the forecasters are to be believed the picture will get a lot worse in the coming year.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) forecasts that 600,000 workers face redundancy this year – the equivalent of 1,600 people a day.

As I have written before, don't underestimate the effect of unemployment – not just on those unfortunate enough to have been laid off, but also on the confidence of friends, family and neighbours.

The fallout from redundancies spreads: hitting the confidence of everyone – no matter how secure their own jobs.

With economists now predicting that unemployment could now hit 3m, jobs look set to become the a major headache for the Government in 2009.

Unfortunately there is no quick solution. No bail-out would be large enough to fix the economy and avoid us all paying the price for the excesses of the last decade.

Downturn's already a record-breaker

How long will the recession last? Listen to some commentators and we face years of stagnant growth with a Japanese-style downturn that could last up to a decade.

New Star economist and strategist Simon Ward is more upbeat predicting on his blog – moneymovesmarkets.com – that we could see the bottom of the curve as soon as February (although we will have to wait until 2010 until we return to growth).

G7 industrial output has already contracted 7pc since peaking in February 2008, according to Ward who has crunched the November and October output data for the G7 members. The speed and depth of the downturn mean that we have already exceeded the 2000-2001 downturn and look set to exceed the 1980-1982 recession with the current decline heading towards 10pc.

That would make the current recession the second worst since the Second World War, beaten only by the 1974-75 recession when output plunged 12pc from peak to trough.

2009 brings hard choices over the future of capitalism

Either a large part of humankind has to be excluded from the happy benefits of growth or our way of life has to change

Happy new year? You must be joking. 2009 will begin with a wail, and then get worse. Millions of people have already been put out of work, across the world, by this first truly globalised crisis of capitalism. Tens of millions more will be made jobless soon. Those of us lucky enough still to have work will feel poorer and less secure. To celebrate his Nobel prize in economics, Paul Krugman promises us months of "economic hell". Thank you, Paul, and a happy new year to you too.

Economic troubles will exacerbate political tensions. But rumours of the death of capitalism have been exaggerated. I don't think 2009 will be to capitalism what 1989 was to communism. Maybe on 1 January 2010 I'll have to eat these words. Prediction is a mug's game. (In the Economist's predictive almanac, The World in 2009, the editor has a brave and amusing little column titled "About 2008: Sorry".) But as this year begins I don't see any serious systemic competitor on the horizon - in the way there appeared to be in the days of Soviet communism before 1989. The Hugo Chávez model of socialism depends on capitalists buying his oil, and if you fancy the North Korean model you need to see a doctor.

Something will be very wrong, however, if the assumptions of the kind of free-market capitalism - sometimes called "neoliberal" - that has appeared triumphant since 1989 are not re-examined in this 20th anniversary year. First there's the balance between state and market, public and private, the visible and invisible hand. Even before last September's meltdown, Barack Obama was trying to nudge his compatriots towards the idea that government is not always a dirty word. Subsequent months have seen a dramatic shift towards a larger role for the state, usually in spasms of desperate governmental improvisation, sometimes (as in Gordon Brown's London) ideologically legitimated as Keynesianism, sometimes (as in George Bush's Washington) just plain, unvarnished Desperationism.

How much of that shift is temporary and how much will endure is something we won't know by the end of this year. While most of the movement is towards strengthening the visible hand of government, it may not all go that way. A leading Chinese economic reformer recently argued to me that the Asian financial crisis of a decade ago had catalysed more market-oriented reform of the Chinese economy, and this one would do the same.

If he is right, one could even imagine a kind of global convergence on some version of a European-style social market economy, with the US and China approaching from different ends. But it's important to stress the words "some version". Even within Europe, there are large variations in the mix of state and market, and in the way that mix is organised. What works for one small northern country may not work for a large southern one. There's no universal formula. What matters is what works for you.

A second rethink for 2009 concerns what is needed for sustainable, green, low-carbon growth, to avert the tipping-point in global warming. At issue is how much and what kind of growth. Again, Obama is trying to discover the chance of this crisis, orienting part of his Keynesian fiscal stimulus towards investment in alternative energy. Yet on balance, this seems likely to be a bad year for the fight against global warming.

Moving towards a sustainable, low-carbon economy requires both companies and governments to pay short-term costs for long-term benefits. When they have their backs to the wall they usually do the opposite. Probably the best we can hope for is that they will avoid the beggar-my-neighbour economic nationalism of the 1930s. To get them beyond that will require a deeper shift in the expectations of voters and shareholders. So long as we, the people, are guided in our personal financial and political choices by the lodestar of short- to medium-term economic gain, we shouldn't blame our leaders for trying to give us what we ask for.

So a third essential prise de conscience involves looking again at our personal lodestars. How much more in money and things do we need? Is enough as good as a feast? Could we manage with less? What really matters to you? What contributes most to your individual happiness?

Believe it or not, there's now a whole academic subfield of happiness studies. The economist Richard Layard has written an interesting book, Happiness: Lessons from a New Science. Is this what Freidrich Nietzsche meant by "the gay science"? A Dutch scholar, Ruut Veenhoven, has created a World Database of Happiness, including national rankings. Its results were reported on a Canadian website under the headline "Canada beats US in global happiness index" - beating the United States being itself a clear material contribution to Canadian happiness. A rival ranking and "world map of happiness" has emerged from Leicester University. Denmark scores top in both of them. There's even a Journal of Happiness Studies. Whatever you think of the substantive value of this stuff - sorry, science - you can spend a happy hour surfing it on the web, and wondering how much of it has been invented.

Seriously, though, some of the choices do come back to individual middle-class citizens of richer countries. It must be obvious that the planet cannot sustain 6.7 billion people living as does today's middle class in North America and western Europe - let alone the projected 9 billion world population in mid-century. Either a large part of humankind has to be excluded from the benefits of prosperity or our way of life has to change.

The mantra with which most political and business leaders enter 2009 is "back to economic growth, whatever it costs". Like the crew of a sailing boat in a storm, they just want to keep it afloat and moving through the waves in some direction - never mind which. But even as we weather the worst of the storm, which has not hit us yet, we should be taking a hard look at the course we are steering. That requires leadership of a high order, but also citizens demanding such leadership. Would I personally be happy making the changes in my way of life that would be necessary? Almost certainly not. But I'd at least like to know what they would be.

timothygartonash.com