NO MARGIN FOR ERROR?
Moshe Arens
Ha'aretz, July 22, 2008
There was a time, not so long ago, when the Israeli leadership enjoyed a
margin for error in its decisions. Israel was strong militarily and
economically, was deterring its enemies from taking military actions against
it, and could afford to take risks. And even mistakes made by the leadership
were not going to have catastrophic consequences. Not like in the early
years of Israeli statehood when there was no margin for error.
In the days of the Sharon government there was enough confidence for
Ariel Sharon to announce that since there was nobody to negotiate with,
Israel would unilaterally determine its borders, use the Israel Defense
Forces to evacuate settlements, and make itself "more Jewish and
democratic." It was a time when Ehud Olmert, then the deputy prime
minister, declared that "we are tired of fighting and tired of defeating our
enemies." Those of us who were concerned about these mistakes could comfort
ourselves by the thought that Israel was strong enough to have a margin for
error—we could even afford to make mistakes. But since Olmert assumed the
office of prime minister, the government's mistakes have been accumulating
at such a rate that our margin for error is rapidly disappearing.…
Unfortunately, some of Israel's enemies make no bones about their
intention to bring about Israel's destruction. Iran, under Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's leadership, Hezbollah and Hamas are in that category. When
their fortunes improve it is bad for Israel, and the margin of error at
Israel's disposal shrinks. In the years of the Olmert government the
fortunes of Hezbollah and Hamas have improved as a result of mistakes made
by Israel.
The debacle of the Second Lebanon War has been interpreted by Israel's
enemies as a sign that Israel could be defeated on the battlefield.
Hezbollah's hand was strengthened in Lebanon and its influence there
increased. The newly elected Lebanese president, Michel Suleiman, recently
declared that Hezbollah had "freed southern Lebanon of the Israeli
occupation."… (L'Express, no. 2975). The release of Samir Kuntar in exchange
for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers only served to increase Hezbollah's
prestige in Lebanon and much of the Arab world.
The disengagement from Gush Katif and the forcible evacuation of 8,000
Israelis from their homes there contributed to Hamas' victory in the
Palestinian elections, their subsequent takeover of the Gaza Strip, and
encouraged them to launch rockets and mortar shells against Israeli towns
and villages in the Western Negev. Israel's agreement to a cease-fire with
this terrorist organization further strengthened them and increased their
standing among Palestinians and in the Arab world. Israel's margin for error
is shrinking.
And now comes Olmert's adventurous policy toward Syrian dictator Bashar
Assad.… Throughout the world, [Assad's] support for Hezbollah and the
allegations that he was behind the murder of former Lebanese prime minister
Rafik Hariri were not going to be soon forgotten. It was no accident that
Imad Mughniyeh, the Hezbollah arch-terrorist, was in Damascus when he was
recently assassinated. Syria's record on human rights is also well known. So
helping to improve Assad's image cannot work to Israel's benefit.
Now, while Assad is being boycotted by the U.S. and most European
countries, along comes Olmert and insists on beginning negotiations with
him. If anyone wonders how Assad was so suddenly rehabilitated and greeted
by President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris, the answer is to be found in the
Prime Minister's Office and the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem. When French
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was recently questioned on that point, he
replied that "we cannot be more Israeli than the Israelis" (L'Express, no.
2975). Olmert's shameless chase after a handshake with Assad at the Paris
conference added embarrassment to the unease that most Israelis feel at his
antics.
The Olmert government may not be able to survive many more weeks, but in
those weeks, at the rate they are going, they might very well exhaust the
small margin for error Israel still has left.
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