27.8.08
Ireland shoots down idea of swift Lisbon revote
LEIGH PHILLIPS
The Irish government has insisted that no second referendum on the
Lisbon Treaty is in the works after Europe minister Dick Roche on the
weekend told press that another vote on the text would be "appropriate.
"Nothing whatsoever has been decided vis-a-vis the next step, because
we're only in the process of analysis at this stage," the Irish Times
quotes an unnamed government spokesperson as saying.
"People who are saying 'another referendum or legislation,
all jumping ahead to an outcome, and the government isn't anywhere
near that."
Meanwhile, the UK's Financial Times reports that Irish government
officials have privately conceded that any second referendum, should
one take place, would not occur before next year's European
Parliamentary elections, but rather in the second half of 2009.
The government clarification comes after a storm of criticism
attacking Mr Roche's comments from campaigners for both the Yes and
No sides in the failed June referendum as well as all main opposition
parties.
Irish Europe minister Dick Roche had told the Irish Independent
newspaper earlier this week: "A referendum is the appropriate
response to the position we are in", while stressing that it was his
"personal view at this stage."
"The government has made it clear that no option has been ruled in or
out. We cannot exclude that at some stage and in the right
circumstances it may be necessary to consult the people once again."
In response, the Labour Party's deputy leader, Joan Burton, described
the minister's comments as "unwise and unhelpful," adding: "There can
be no question of simply putting the same proposition to the people
once again."
"There is no basis for believing that a second referendum would
produce a different outcome to the one we got on 12 June," she said,
saying the government should not be "threatening to ram another
referendum down people's throats".
Leading opposition party Fine Gael's European affairs spokesperson,
Lucinda Creighton, said Mr Roche's remarks showed the government had
"learnt nothing from its disastrous referendum campaign."
Meanwhile, her colleague, MEP Gay Mitchell said of the minister: "I
think he is jumping the gun. I don't think it's helpful ... I don't
think it's helpful to be coming out in the month of August with
proposals or solutions one way or the other."
According to the Irish Independent newspaper, both Ms Burton and Sinn
Fein's Mary Lou McDonald believe the government was using Mr Roche's
comments as a trial balloon in order to see what the popular response
to a second referendum would be.
Ms McDonald said the move displayed "another example of a government
without a plan."
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EUREFERENDUM B log 27.8.08
A nightmare comes true?
If there ever was received wisdom after the famous Irish "no" vote,
it is that the "colleagues" – if they were to have another
referendum – would want it before next year's euro-elections. They
would be at pains, it was held, to avoid the contest becoming an
unofficial, Europe-wide referendum on the constitutional Lisbon treaty.
Now, it seems – at least according to the Financial Times - that the
colleagues' worst nightmare is about to come true.
This paper is reporting that the prospects of Ireland holding a
second referendum on the treaty before the elections "are receding as
differences emerged on Tuesday between parties supporting a 'yes' vote."
This stems from weekend comments by Dick Roche, Ireland's European
affairs minister, who proclaimed that a second vote was
"appropriate"
coalition, and the conservative Fine Gael and Labour, the main
opposition parties, ruled out the possibility of putting the question
back to the people in the short term.
Until this week, says the FT the expectation was that the Irish would
put the question, perhaps with a few political protocols attached to
reflect Irish concerns, to a second vote. But Irish officials and
some diplomats privately concede that it is more likely any second
vote will now take place in late 2009.
This may give Declan Ganley, chairman of the "no" group Libertas, the
opening he needs to set up his EU-wide political party to take on the
treaty – a prospect trailed last July.
More recently, Ganley has been very quiet. He was due to speak at
last weekend's summer school but he pulled out at the last minute,
pleading "urgent commitments in the US", leaving Fine Gael Senator
Eugene Regan to declaim him as "running scared".
If Ganley is not ready to step up to the plate, the prospect of an
unofficial referendum in the UK certainly presents UKIP with an
opportunity. It could galvanise the euro-elections, especially if the
Tory party tries to fight on domestic issues and is unable or
unwilling to clarify its position regarding the constitutional Lisbon
treaty when or if it gets into power.
In what could be its saviour, UKIP's only nightmare would be Ganley
coming up with some serious money and fielding a full slate in
opposition to the UK's premier eurosceptic party.
There is, though, the outside chance that the Tories could get their
act together and give UKIP a run for their money. On past performance
though, their message will not convince enough voters to make the
switch in a contest which is now regarded as UKIP's natural hunting
ground.
The chance of registering disapproval of the constitutional Lisbon
treaty may be so attractive that the electorate will be prepared to
resist Tory invitations to make the contest a two-way joust between
Conservatives and Labour, in a rehearsal for the - - - - general
election slated to take place the following year.
Time will tell, of course – it always does.
Wednesday 27 August 2008
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