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18/08/2008
Gordon postpones next May's local elections to buy time against Labour plotters
Gordon Brown is set to postpone local elections next year in a bid to stave off a leadership challenge that could be triggered by a Labour wipeout.
The Prime Minister intends to face down his critics next month with a "fightback" strategy that will include a possible Cabinet reshuffle, speeches to the TUC and Labour conference and a Pre-Budget Report giveaway to low and middle earners.
Cabinet minister Yvette Cooper today began the offensive with an attack on "Cameronomics" of the Tories, while Blairite minister Andy Burnham warned off colleagues who were "jostling" to succeed Mr Brown.
Despite his current 20-point deficit in the polls and the likely loss of another by-election in Glenrothes, friends of Mr Brown hope that the "autumn push" will kill off speculation about a leadership challenge.
But I hear that a further key plank in the plan is a move to delay the May local elections next year to coincide with the Euro 2009 elections in June.
By combining both polls, Brown would suffer just one national defeat rather than two and - most important of all - give rebel backbenchers less time to mobilise against him ahead of next year's summer recess.
Consultation on a little-noticed Government document, Moving the Date of the Local Elections, was formally completed last week and ministers are set to move quickly to pass the necessary secondary legislation to allow the postponement.
For the change to go ahead, a Parliamentary order has to be made by early October and so Mr Brown has authorised Communities Secretary Hazel Blears to swing into action as soon as the Commons returns after the conference season.
Labour is braced for a catastrophic defeat in many of its remaining town halls and faces wipeout in the last few redoubts where the party is in control. Labour faces the loss of Lancashire, Derbyshire, Staffordshire and Nottinghamshire County Councils to a Tory tide that will strike fear into the hearts of Labour MPs who hold crucial marginal seats in each area. Ironically, all the Labour counties were held in 2005 because the local elections that year were held on the same day as Tony Blair's general election victory.
Shadow Local Government minister Bob Neill tells me: "Gordon Brown is clearly terrified of a bad beating in the county elections. You can be sure that if he was confident of holding on to Labour seats, he would hold the local and Euro elections on separate days. This is all about protecting Gordon's back."
Neill adds that last year's voting chaos in Scotland stemmed from the fact that the Scottish Parliament and local elections were held at the same time and voters were presented with two different voting systems. "We would have that again in England, with first past the post for local elections and a list system for the Euros," Neill says.
Despite recent speculation that there will be a move to oust Mr Brown this autumn, some MPs believe that David Miliband will have a better chance of taking over after the expected disaster in the May elections.
Some Blairites believe that Mr Brown will buy himself some time with his fightback plan and are very nervous of causing trouble at the time of the Pre-Budget Report. But wipeout next May would trigger a serious move to get a Cabinet consensus that it is time for Mr Brown to go.
There are pros and cons to delaying the May elections. Many councils feel annoyed that the counties get ignored all too often and that merging with the Euros will mean Brussels dominates the political debate. Some worry about the costs and the complexities of holding two polls on the same day.
The Government claims it could boost turnout and even cut costs in some areas. There are precedents for merging elections but given the current climate it's no wonder the Tories see this as a desperate move.
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