China Confidential
Foreign Reporting and Analysis Since April 2005
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Afghanistan Cheers Musharraf's Fall
The US-backed Afghan government welcomed Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's resignation Monday, saying he "was not someone good for Afghanistan" and his departure will have a positive effect on the region.
Afghanistan has accused Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency of being behind an April assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai and the July bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which killed more than 60 people. Karzai's spokesman, Humayun Hamidzada, reiterated a standing Afghan government demand that Pakistan's military intelligence service cease its activities in Afghanistan.
In Pakistan's historic rival India, there were concerns that Musharraf's departure will leave a power vacuum. Officials have recently said they are worried Pakistan's new civilian government does not have enough control over hawkish elements in the Inter-Services Intelligence agency and that Pakistan-based militant groups will have freer rein with Musharraf gone.
The United States praised Musharraf for his role in the fight against terrorism.
Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman Zemeri Bashary said that Musharraf was an ally of the United States in words only. He said Afghanistan wants a Pakistani president that pursues peace by his actions, and not only through words.
Musharraf "was not someone good for Afghanistan," said Bashary. "We hope that someone good will replace him."
Peace Talks Threatened by PLO Radicals
More radical members of the Palestine Liberation Organization are threatening to sabotage peace talks with Israel. The West Bank-based extremists are demanding that Israel return all the lands captured during the 1967 Six-Day War, including predominantly Palestinian Arab East Jerusalem, which includes the Western Wall, a sacred place of pilgrimage venerated by Jews as the sole remnant of the Holy Temple.Monday, August 18, 2008
Russia Moves Missile Launchers into South Ossetia
The history of imperialist resurgent and rising regional powers is far from encouraging to anyone concerned with preserving the peace. Skilled and effective diplomacy would seem to be urgently needed; one hopes that cooler heads in Moscow will prevail. The last thing the world needs is a new cold war between Russia and the United States.American officials said Sunday the Russian military had been moving launchers for short-range ballistic missiles into South Ossetia, a step that appeared intended to tighten its hold on the breakaway territory.
The Russian military deployed several SS-21 missile launchers and supply vehicles to South Ossetia on Friday, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports. From the new launching positions north of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, the missiles can reach much of Georgia, including Tbilisi, the capital.Pakistan Update: Uncertainty Everywhere
Foreign Confidential....
Following the resignation of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, it is unclear if the country's ruling coalition can effectively unite around an issue besides opposition to him.
The two largest parties in the coalition, the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League - N, both held power in 1990s and were frequently political opponents. Both parties were also dismissed for corruption and mismanagement of the economy.
Just hours after Musharraf's departure, coalition leaders held a meeting in Islamabad to discuss what are expected to be their next main policy issues: whether to bring charges against the former president, how to restore the judges Musharraf deposed and who will be Pakistan's next president. The meeting ended without a public statement.
Muhammad Mian Soomro, the president of the Senate, has assumed the office of acting president. Under the constitution, Pakistan's four provincial assemblies and the national assembly choose the country's president through an election. In Karachi, the co-chairman of the Pakistan People's Party, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, 19, was asked who would become the country's next president.
"It will be someone from the Pakistan People's Party," he said.
But PML-N leaders have already said that Pakistan's next president will not come from one the two largest parties and instead have proposed prominent leaders from minority parties.
The two parties have also given conflicting statements in recent days about how they plan on restoring the judges sacked by the president last November and whether they plan to criminally charge Musharraf.
-VOAUS Leads Campaign to Combat Threat to Global Aviation from Man-Portable Air Defense Systems
Countering the proliferation of Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) is a top national security priority of the United States. MANPADS, shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, in the hands of criminals, terrorists, and other non-state actors pose a serious threat to passenger air travel, the commercial aviation industry, and military aircraft around the world. Over 40 civilian aircraft have been hit by MANPADS missiles since the 1970s.
The US and other concerned countries have recognized this and taken steps to counter this threat. After the November 2002 attempted shoot-down by terrorists of a civilian airliner in Mombasa, Kenya, the US redoubled its efforts to keep MANPADS from falling into the wrong hands, and is working closely with numerous countries and international organizations to keep the skies safe for all. With US assistance, this cooperation has led to the destruction of over 26,000 excess, loosely secured, illicitly held, or otherwise at-risk MANPADS since 2003.
The White House launched an initiative in late 2002 to prevent the acquisition and use of MANPADS by terrorists and other non-state actors. At the direction of the White House, the US Department of State, supported by the US Department of Defense, leads the nation’s international efforts on this critical issue.
This abridged version of an updated State Department fact sheet is presented as a public service. If you have information concerning the illegal possession of MANPADS, immediately contact the appropriate law enforcement authorities in your country.
Americans who are living or traveling overseas who wish to report the illicit possession of or location of illicitly-held MANPADS should contact the Regional Security Officer (RSO) at the nearest US Embassy, or the Legal Attaché at the specific US Embassies listed on this FBI website--click here--as soon as possible.
In the US, American citizens, other residents, and visitors who have knowledge about the possession or location of illicit MANPADS, both in the US or in other countries, should immediately report this information to the nearest field office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation by telephone, or by e-mail using this web tip sheet--click here. Or, they may telephone the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms at this toll-free number: 1-888-ATF-BOMB (or 1-800-283-2662).
Man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), commonly described as shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, are surface-to-air missiles that can be carried and fired by a single individual or carried by several individuals and fired by more than one person acting as a crew. Most MANPADS consist of: (1) a missile packaged in a tube; (2) a launching mechanism (commonly known as a “gripstock”); and (3) a battery.
More modern MANPADS also contain a separate missile ejection motor. The tubes, which protect the missile until it has been fired, are normally disposable. Rudimentary sights are mounted on the tube. The missiles themselves are usually comprised of a flight motor, a warhead, a control section and a guidance section that directs the missile toward the targeted aircraft. A single-use battery is typically used to power the missile prior to launch.
MANPADS launch tubes typically range from about 4 feet to 6 1/2 feet (1.2 to 2 meters) in length and are about 3 inches (72 millimeters) in diameter. Their weight, with launcher, ranges from about 28 pounds to just over 55 pounds (13 to 25 kilograms). They are easy to transport and conceal. Some of the most commonly proliferated MANPADS can easily fit into the trunk of an automobile.
Although superficially similar in appearance, MANPADS should not be confused with rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). RPGs are also portable and shoulder-fired. However, RPGs are unguided weapons designed primarily to be used against ground targets and are generally ineffective against aircraft, except at very close range. Some RPG attacks on low-flying aircraft have been mistaken for MANPADS attacks.
Since the 1970s, over 40 civilian aircraft have been hit by MANPADS, causing about 28 crashes and over 800 deaths around the world. The following list is a sample of reported incidents involving civilian aircraft. All of the incidents listed below, except the Mombasa incident, took place in zones of conflict.
March 12, 1975
A Douglas C-54D-5-DC passenger airliner, operated by Air Vietnam, crashed into inaccessible, hostile Vietnamese territory after being hit by a MANPADS. All six crew members and 20 passengers were killed in the crash.
September 3, 1978
An Air Rhodesia Vickers 782D Viscount passenger airliner crash landed after being hit by a MANPADS fired by Zimbabwe Peoples Revolution Army rebels. Four crew members and 34 of the 56 passengers were killed in the crash. 10 survivors were shot to death afterwards.
December 19, 1988
Two Douglas DC-7 spray aircraft, chartered by the U.S. Agency for International Development to eradicate locusts, en route from Senegal to Morocco, were struck by MANPADS fired by POLISARIO rebels in the Western Sahara. One DC-7 crashed killing all 5 crew members. The other DC-7 landed safely in Morocco.
September 22, 1993
A Tupolev 154B aircraft operated by Transair Georgia was shot down by Abkhazian rebels, crashed onto the runway and caught fire, killing 108.
April 6, 1994
A Dassault Mystère-Falcon 50 executive jet carrying the Presidents of Rwanda and Burundi and its French flight crew was shot down over Kigali, killing all aboard and sparking massive ethnic violence and regional conflict.
October 10, 1998
A Boeing 727-30 Lignes Aeriennes Congolaises airliner was downed over the Democratic Republic of the Congo jungle by Tutsi rebels, killing 41.
December 26, 1998
A United Nations-chartered Lockheed C-130 Hercules transport was shot down over Angola by UNITA rebels, killing 14.
January 2, 1999
A United Nations Lockheed L-100-30 Hercules transport was shot down by UNITA rebels over rebel-held territory in Angola, killing 9.
November 28, 2002
Terrorists fired two MANPADS at an Arkia Airlines Boeing 757-3E7 with 271 passengers and crew as it took off from Mombasa, Kenya. Both missiles missed.
November 22, 2003
A DHL Airbus A300B4-203F cargo jet transporting mail in Iraq was struck and damaged by a MANPADS. Though hit in the left fuel tank, the plane was able to return to the Baghdad airport and land safely.
March 23, 2007
A Transaviaexport Ilyushin 76TD cargo plane was shot down over Mogadishu, Somalia, killing the entire crew of 11.
Some 20 countries have produced or have licenses to produce MANPADS or their components. These include Bulgaria, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, Iran, Japan, the Netherlands, North Korea, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, South Korea, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the US.
It is estimated that over 1 million MANPADS missiles have been manufactured worldwide since they were first produced in 1967. The US believes that most of these systems are either in national inventories or have been destroyed. However, in many cases, these systems have not been accounted for properly.
MANPADS are found in the stockpiles of many countries around the world, including those of manufacturing military nations. The US believes that thousands are outside of the control of national governments and a number of terrorist organizations, including Al Qaeda, have MANPADS in their possession. The total number of MANPADS remaining in the global inventory is difficult to estimate with precision because the destruction of MANPADS systems—either by warfare, accident or systematic demilitarization—is not always tracked or publicized. Even more uncertain is the number of operational systems within that total inventory, as a number of variables—age, storage conditions, and quality of maintenance—influence the life-expectancy of such systems. Even vintage systems may remain functional long after their projected life-span, particularly if properly stored and maintained.
Given the unique threat posed by MANPADS to aviation due to their ease of use, relatively small size and portability, the US exercises strict controls over production, storage, and transportation of its MANPADS. The US exercises diligence when selling them to other governments in order to ensure that they are properly secured and not sold or transferred to others without prior consent.
The black market cost of MANPADS can vary widely, ranging from as little as a few hundred dollars, to several thousand dollars, depending on the model and its condition. Given the relatively low cost of some of these systems, there is a heightened risk for acquisition by terrorists or other non-state actors.Another Foreign Policy Failure
Foreign Confidential...
The United States has suffered yet another foreign policy failure: the resignation of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf. His departure (he will probably go into exile in a day or so) means there is no chance that the US and Pakistan will wipe out the sanctuaries and bases of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistan's lawless tribal lands bordering Afghanistan.
And no US military surge or long overdue, US-sponsored government cleansing in Afghanistan can be expected to succeed unless the Taliban are kicked out of and cut off from the Pakistani borderlands.
Afghanistan is in danger of falling to the Taliban; and Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is in danger of falling into the hands of Al Qaeda and its allies, given the widespread hatred for the US in Pakistan, and the Islamist infiltration and Islamist leanings of the Pakistani intelligence services, which created and sustained the Taliban before 9/11.
It does not get much worse than that.
The idea that the US could fight a protracted war against Islamism--instead of crushing it by any and all means necessary--was dangerously dumb in the first place. Time is working against the US. But Washington is blind to the truth.
Tuesday 19 August 2008
An AP story illustrates the frustrating complexity of the war against radical Islam. The US news agency reports:
Foreign Confidential....
The New York Times provides further proof that Russia has adopted an imperialist foreign policy according to Hans J. Morgenthau's classical political realist definition of the term--i.e. a policy aimed at radically altering the power relations among nations. It remains to be seen to what degree this policy of overthrowing the status quo will be extended across and beyond Russia's so-called near abroad.
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