Britannia Radio

Duplicity from Russia
This gets to the heart of the Caucasian war, Helen Szamuely was born
in Eastern Europe and consequently speaks Russian. Heed her words!

xxxxxxx cs

EUREFERENDUM Blog 12.10.08
So what now?

The news is that Russia has ceased its military action. Or has
announced that she has done so, though there are still reports of
fighting. It is not quite clear what that means, since before doing
so, its forces penetrated far into Georgian territory. What will they
demand in return for taking them out and, indeed, will they take them
out?

The whole subject of South Ossetian independence has disappeared into
a memory hole. Yesterday I took part in a discussion on the BBC
Russian Service, together with Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation
and a Russian political analyst and former member of the Duma (whose
name I managed not to catch, which is really annoying but had
something to do with me having to adjust my earphones).

The latter very calmly informed us all that there was no question of
going back to status quo ante because only Russian troops (I don’t
think he bothered with the words peacekeepers or peacemakers) could
guarantee the two break-away republics’ security and they were
staying. Under no circumstances would international peacekeepers be
allowed in.

Nor did he argue when I made the point that this was not about South
Ossetian independence. Of course, not. Only those who are wilfully
blind can say so.

Indeed, the gentleman in question remained very calm and full of
certainty throughout the discussion, losing his temper only when I
started enumerating the various ways in which the West can respond
without any military intervention. “And who are you going to buy gas
from,” he asked me angrily. “Lots of people,” replied I airily. “Who
are you going to sell it to if we don’t buy it? There are no
pipelines to China.” This did not make him very happy.

While we are on the subject of what the West can do to prevent
attacks on other countries -the idea that Russia will do no such
thing now that it has taught Georgia a lesson can be believed only by
people who also think that stars are God’s daisy chains. (- - - - ).

What we could not find out was Russia’s endgame. What is it they
want? We still don’t know, though according to the BBC Russian
Service website [it’s in Russian but I think there is a way of having
the article translated] some experts are saying that Russia has
achieved her aims. Others are more cautious and suggesting we should
wait and see.

On the whole, waiting and seeing sounds like an excellent idea. Not
least we should hear what it is Mr Putin or his teddy bear, Mr
Medvedev are going to demand. Simply asserting that they have
punished the aggressor and reasserted the security of the civilian
population (something that Mr Putin cares about desperately) as well
as of the peacemakers is not the end. There will be more demands.

Meanwhile President Saakashvili has announced to around 50,000 people
in Tbilisi that Georgia is leaving the Commonwealth of Independent
States, Russia’s post-Soviet attempt to control the break-away
republics.

While the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline appears not to have been
damaged (apart from the fire caused by an explosion in Turkey a few
days before the hostilities in Georgia began) BP has prudently closed
it down for the duration. When they will reopen it might well depend
on the separate battle that is being waged for the control of the
joint Anglo-Russian consortium TNK-BP.

We can but speculate why Russia has decided to end hostilities for
the time being, while there is still fighting in Abkhazia. It may be
that they do feel that they have taught Georgia a lesson and, in any
case, they are in a good position to resume the teaching of that
lesson if the Georgians refuse to kiss the rod.

It may be that the Georgian forces fought back with greater vigour
than the Russians had expected and there was a sudden worry (which we
have speculated on before) of another quagmire like Chechnya. It may
be that the angry conversation between President Bush and former
President, now Prime Minister, Putin included certain very specific
threats possibly to do with ships in the Mediterranean.

As opposed to that last point Russia may well have reassured herself
that the West will do nothing if she proceeds to reconquer the old
Soviet colonies as Putin has always threatened to do and there is no
need to do anything else for the moment.

I shall do a separate posting about Russia, her so-called humiliation
and the amazing lengths to which her supporters in the West will go
to. For the moment, let me just point out that if there has been any
humiliation it was that of President Medvedev. He may say that he has
decided to end the hostilities and he may look solemn during his
meeting with President Sarkozy as a Reuters picture shows but the
whole world has been watching and we know who has been in charge all
the time.

As the International Herald Tribune wrote today:
In recent days, Putin has appeared on television with his sleeves
rolled up, mingling with refugees on the border with South Ossetia —
the very picture of a man of action.

By contrast, Medvedev is shown sitting at his desk in Moscow, giving
ceremonial orders to the minister of defense.

"All his liberal speeches which he made in Berlin and elsewhere are
forgotten," Rahr, who serves on the German Council on Foreign
Relations, said of the new president. "He is playing the game which
is designed by Putin."

Yulia L. Latynina, a frequent critic of Putin's government, noted
with amusement that on the eve of the conflict in Georgia, when
President George W. Bush and Putin were deep in conversation in
Beijing at the start of the Olympics, Medvedev was taking a cruise on
the Volga River.

"Now he can cruise the Volga for all the remaining years, or can go
right to the Bahamas," she wrote in Daily Magazine, a Russian Web
site. "I must admit that for the first time in my life I felt
admiration for the skill with which Vladimir Putin maintains his
power."

What, one cannot help wondering, will happen if the worm or the teddy
bear turns?

UPDATE: The announcements were all premature and wait and see remains
a good policy. It seems that the Russians are shelling Gori, which
is, indeed, Stalin's birth place. More to the point, it is a long way
from the disputed territory, some days after the Georgians asked for
a cease-fire and a day or so after President Saakashvile agreed to
the European plan for negotiations. Of course, it could be that
President Medvedev's announcements are not worth the paper they are
described on.

Posted by Helen Szamuely