EU: Thanks, Russia
On Monday the EU will face the greatest challenge to its unity since the Iraq war of 2003, when the 27 heads of state meet at an emergency summit to discuss future relations with Russia and aid to Georgia.
Former Communist EU members, led by Poland and supported by the United Kingdom, called for an emergency EU summit on the crisis as early as August 9 , but the French EU presidency -- in close consultation with Germany -- opted for dialogue and mediation instead. In visits to Moscow and Tbilisi, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, persuaded both sides to agree to a six-point ceasefire plan, which included provisions for full Russian withdrawal from Georgia and an international settlement on the status of the separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The trip was followed by an emergency EU foreign ministers meeting, which merely called on both Russia and Georgia to implement fully and swiftly Sarkozy’s plan, rather than condemning Russia and imposing sanctions as the ex-Communist members and London demanded. France and Germany continued to push for their ‘soft’ approach so as not to alienate Moscow.
Moscow proved reluctant to comply with the ceasefire agreement and has not completely withdrawn its troops from Georgian territory. On August 24, Sarkozy seemed to have lost patience and called for an emergency EU summit to be held on September 1, apparently responding to the “request of several EU members”. At the time this looked a risky strategy -- the EU is limited in the range of ‘sanctions’ it can impose on Russia without suffering itself from the consequences, such as suspending negotiations of the new EU-Russia pact, reimposing stricter visa requirements or vetoing Moscow’s WTO bid. Differences between old and new member states have also hardened since August 13. A newly divided and thus weakened EU would have played into the hands of the Russians.
However, the situation changed markedly once Russia’s recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 26. This act of defiance against the West is an embarrassment to Sarkozy, and France and Germany can no longer claim that their mediation efforts have been effective or even respected by Russia. By reducing the options open to EU leaders, Moscow’s defiance will allow them to adopt a tougher and more united line on Monday, avoiding a potentially damaging split.
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