The Pre-Nuclear Iran Window

Thursday, August 7, 2008
Weekly Commentary: The Pre-Nuclear Iran Window
Dr. Aaron Lerner

The Olmert team's ongoing failure to seriously address threatening
developments in the Gaza Strip is frequently excused as reflecting a
conscious decision to focus current efforts on preventing the existential
danger that a nuclear Iran would represent.
But it would be a mistake to ignore the opportunity that the current
"pre-nuclear Iran window" provides in order to best create conditions that
are the most amenable should Iran ultimately succeeds in its efforts to
produce nuclear weapons.
Conditions in which Israel is able to engage in rapid conflict incident
resolution that reduces the possibility of Iranian - or for that matter
other malicious third party - intervention.
A conflict incident that goes on for many days or even weeks can heat up the
Iranian and Arab street with rallies, pronouncements and threats of
intervention. In sharp contrast, a conflict incident resolved in a short
period is considerably less likely to suck others in - even if resolution
means numerous casualties.
Creating a situation on the ground that is amenable to rapid conflict
incident resolution goes beyond military training and equipment. It means
developing a workable and effective approach to the human shields challenge.
It means exploiting an appreciation of the nature of media coverage of
conflicts (brutally put - the bad press for bloody battles in a multitude of
civilian areas that take place simultaneously is almost the same as the bad
press for one battle).
It also means restoring a military presence in the Gaza Strip to facilitate
the intelligence gathering and rapid insertion so critical for rapid
conflict incident resolution instead of allowing Hamas, as the Olmert team
is now, build up an army that could engage Israel in prolonged battle.
However great the cost may be to address this challenge today, it is only a
fraction of what it could cost Israel should the day come that we find
ourselves in a dragged out fight with the surrogates of a nuclear armed
Iran.
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il