Britannia Radio

Today we wait to see what exactly the Russians mean by “troop
withdrawal” . Most commentators assume that this will only mean some
troops and that ‘withdrawal’ will not mean ‘complete withdrawal’.

But since Sarkozy went to Moscow and made no attempt to drive any
bargain at all but just collected the terms of Georgia’s surrender,
there’s no longer anything we can do about it.

Our prime minister has been totally invisible and virtually silent on
the issue only issuing a bland statement when pressed. Even though
the Treaty of Lisbon has not been passed the government acts as
though it was in force, leaving the whole issue to be settled by the
Franco-German axis - of which I have written repeatedly.

Today we learn that Russia has started issuing Russian passports to
those in the eastern Ukraine who ask for them. Probably a majorirty
of the inhabitants of certain districts there regret not being part
of Russia. This would give the Russians the same pretext that they
used over South Ossetia and the invasion of Georgia.

XXXXXXXXXXX CS
(I will collect more general comments separastely and post later)
- However, Brown must be secretly in charge somewhere, as he has
issued a strong approval of the British Olympic athletes. All his
doing of course!
======================
17.8.08
1.The ultimate joke

Whatever the outcome of the Russian escapade in Georgia, the one
thing on which most commentators seem to agree is that the EU has not
come well out of the experience.

Few, however, are as forthright as US columnist, J R Nyquist, writing
for Global Analaysis who has decided that Moscow's "blitzkrieg" in
Georgia is more than a military campaign.

It is designed, he writes, to empower Russia's diplomatic strategy,
which seeks to make the European Union the West's chief
representative in future negotiations with Russia. Quite naturally
the Kremlin wants to escape the logic of U.S. and NATO policy, which
is to contain Russia within her national borders.

The logic of this, according to Nyquist, is that the European Union
is an entirely different animal: "toothless, utopian and ready to
please." Better to deal with this organisation than a tough nut
United States. Today, he continues, the European Union confronts
Russia in the same way Neville Chamberlain confronted Hitler in 1938;
being outwitted and tricked in the cease fire negotiations, there is
no possible outcome other than appeasement.

Pointing at Sarkozy's "triumph", he notes now the Russians insisted
that their troops were accepted as peacekeepers in Georgia and the
French mediators caved in and allowed this. Thus, the stipulated
withdrawal of combatants does not apply to Russian troops.

Under this ceasefire agreement Moscow can claim – in a strictly legal
sense – that Russian troops can stay in Georgia indefinitely.
President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin are laughing at the
French while observing international law. Meanwhile, occupied Georgia
is looted and burned; Georgian ships are sunk and the Georgian
capital is strangled.

Nor is the purple prose confined to the commentators. My co-editor
has already taken a side-swipe at the Common Foreign Policy - when
she featured our favourite Polish politician - but, it appears, dear
old president Lech Kaczynski was only just warming up.

To the Rzeczpospolita newspaper yesterday he declared that the EU was
"too soft on Russia", complaining that it should have been more
critical of Russia's military assault on Georgia, with the bloc
making clear to Moscow that "imperial times have ended".

As for the Common Foreign Policy, this he said was dictated by France
and Germany. [I’ve warned often of this Franco-German axis. set to
dominate the EU -cs] "Once again it turned out that, in actuality,
decisions of this organisation (the EU) were being taken between
Berlin and Paris. (French President Nicolas) Sarkozy agreed the
position with Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose voice proved to be
decisive," Kaczynski said.

He also complains that the French deal lacked a key element –
recognition of Georgia's territorial integrity, adding that he
believed the EU reaction "should have been more decisive."

With all that, it was a "joke" to suggest that the 27-nation EU had a
common stance. Then speculating on what such a policy would be, he
had but one word, "submissiveness".

Perhaps the biggest joke of all, however, is perhaps our own
politicians, whose posturing has been noted, even by the Independent.
Gordon Brown and David Miliband, we are told, "merely mouthed empty
platitudes about the crisis".

What this rabidly europhile newspaper does not say, though, is that
there is a "common position" on relations with former Soviet
satellites and Russia. Therefore, any dealings must go through the EU
presidency – in this case the egregious Sarkozy.

That is indeed the ultimate joke. Great Britain, once the head of an
empire on which the sun never set, is reduced to a bit part, while a
French president supposedly represents our interests. And all because
our political class is so enamoured of the EU.
===============
Posted by Richard North
===============

2. Unintended consequences

On this blog we have always maintained that former President, now
Prime Minister, Putin and his teddy bear (mishka), President Medvedev
tend to be less than adroit when it comes to foreign adventures,
whether attempts to bully and blackmail or, as has now happened,
actual military invasion (and no, I do not mean South Ossetia, which
has been under Russian occupation for something like ten years).

Chancellor Merkel, who led the nay-sayers during the last NATO Summit
in Sofia, and thus may be said to have helped to precipitate the
crisis in the Caucasus, has now changed her mind. She is reported by
AP as saying that Georgia is strongly on track to becoming a member
of NATO, which is not entirely logical but there you are.

Her comments, as reported by AP are not precisely accurate. It is not
an EU ceasefire we are talking about but a Russian one that they keep
offering but never quite keeping to. The EU has not precisely covered
itself with glory. Also, the state of the Georgian military is not
entirely clear. There are several opinions, some maintaining that the
Russians did not have a totally easy ride.

Meanwhile, thanks to Glenn Reynolds on Instapundit, we learn that
Ukraine has agreed to take part in a missile defence system designed
by the United States to protect Western countries. The government in
Kiev defended its decision for military co-operation with the West,
saying Russia cancelled a bilateral treaty with Ukraine earlier this
year.

No doubt, this will be interpreted by all the Kremlin-lovers, since
they cannot be described as Russia-lovers, as a "humilation" for
Russia.

Whatever one calls it, this is not precisely what Mr Putin had
intended, one assumes. Some things have changed in the last forty
years. Time for Russia's rulers to understand that.
===========================
Posted by Helen Szamuely