Under Moscow's wing.

Events in Georgia have had some surprising repercussions in the Middle East, leaving Syria looking perkier than usual

By James Denselow

22/08/08 "The Guardian" -- - Israel's involvement with the Georgian military has been somewhat overlooked in light of more blatant US support, such as the airlift of some 2,000 Georgian troops from Iraq at the start of the conflict. However Misha Glenny spotted it, writing in the New Statesman that Prime Minister Putin warned President Shimon Peres to "pull out your trainers and weapons or we will escalate our co-operation with Syria and Iran" – after which Israel dutifully complied.

Hizbullah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah also spotted it and subsequently mocked Israel's withdrawal, claiming that "the entire front line of the [Israeli] army's brass stepped down because of the [Lebanon] war. Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him."

The Russians are indeed emboldened by their sweeping victory which has highlighted the impotence of both the US and Nato. Jonathan Spyer, in the Jerusalem Post, described Russian action as throwing down "a direct challenge to the US-dominated post Cold-war international order" and expressed concern over Moscow's willingness to supply Syria with the S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missile system, a defensive measure that has the potential to impede Israeli airstrikes such as the one that targeted a suspected Syrian nuclear site last September.

Then the BBC reported yesterday that Syria's President Assad met with President Medvedev at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss "deals on anti-aircraft and anti-tank missile systems".

Like any customer visiting his main arms dealer, Assad praised Russian actions in Georgia, explaining that "we understand the Russian stance and the Russian military response as a result of the provocations which took place. We appreciate the courageous decision taken by the Russian leadership in responding to the international initiatives and the start of withdrawing its forces".

Assad also signalled his willingness to have Russian Iskander missiles (which according to GlobalSecurity.org are capable of overcoming the enemy's anti-missile defences and hitting targets at a distance of 280 kilometers) situated on Syrian territory, although he refused to commit to any timeline for such a deployment.

The Syrians have survived six years of Isolation led by Washington and Tel Aviv following 9/11, an isolation that has only shown recent signs of ending. If a small country like Syria can survive years of western isolation then the Russian bear empowered with petrodollars and a stable, if undemocratic, leadership, will surely feel more confident in throwing its foreign policy weight around.

The Times reported that Russia's activism, particularly in arms dealing, was sparking fears of a Middle East "Cold War". In previous years Russia has respected US/Israeli "red lines" on supplying equipment to Syria; however with the potential red lines crossed by the other side in terms of support for Georgia and signing Poland up to the anti-ballistic missile treaty, all bets may be off. Indeed, the BBC reported the Russian reaction as an ominous foreign ministry statement saying that Moscow "will be forced to react, and not only through diplomatic demarches".

Syria has a number of offensive and defensive weapon orders pending, however what could radically alter the balance of power is a more overt Russian presence in the country itself. Over the past few years defence analysts have kept a close eye on the Russian navy's activity at the Syrian port of Tartus. There are real fears that the Russians are keen to transform what was little more than a refuelling station into a fully-fledged Russian Mediterranean fleet naval base where they can relocate much of the Black Sea fleet currently held up in Sevastopol.

Satellite shots of Russian involvement in dredging the port to allow access to larger vessels provide more evidence to support this theory which would place an aggressive Russia right on the doorstep of Israel and in close proximity to the strategic Turkish port of Ceyhan, the terminus of a major new oil pipeline linked to the Azerbaijani port city of Baku – an incendiary combination with huge tactical ramifications.

This makes grim reading for the lame duck leaders, Bush and Olmert, neither of whom have the political capital of the Russian Putin-Medvedev alliance. Perhaps the only manoeuvre that can undermine an aggressive Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance is the Israeli-Syrian peace talks, which are still ongoing. If they result in an unlikely peace treaty there is hope yet that this new and dangerous cold war will not emerge.