What will Cameron do about Europe? Cameron's first 100 days.

What will Cameron do about Europe?
This is a fascinating appraisal. It is all interesting but here I
have slightly curtailed the specifics on other subjects to
concentrate on the author’s assessment on the Tories and the EU.

Good to see The Independent - of all papers - thinking the hitherto
unthinkable!

At the end I answer the “unanswered questions”

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INDEPENDENT 1.8.08
Cameron's first 100 days

Preparing for Power - Starting Out & Europe: In the last of our
series, Andrew Grice, Political Editor, examines how the Tories plan
to hit the ground running after winning an election and whether
divisions over Europe will return to haunt the party

Tony Blair has become an unwitting model for a Tory government – but
only in how NOT to act on coming to power. David Cameron admires the
New Labour election machine, but is convinced that the party did not
prepare enough for what it would actually do when elected in 1997. He
is determined not to make the same mistake, and has set up an
implementation unit headed by Francis Maude, a Shadow Cabinet member
and former party chairman, and Nicholas Boles, the former director of
the Policy Exchange think-tank.

"Blair's biggest failure was his first term," Mr Maude told The
Independent yesterday. "By the middle of the second term, he knew
what he wanted to achieve and had a pretty good idea how to achieve
it. But his authority was diminished, there was Iraq, and Gordon
Brown was obstructing his public service reforms. We are not
interested in winning for the sake of it. We have a vision of how
Britain can be. It will take a long time to deliver it, so we had
better start from day one."

So what would Mr Cameron's first 100 days be like? One close ally
gave a candid answer: "The scope to be hugely different on the
economy will be limited, so the fireworks will be on the social
agenda."

The two centrepieces of the first Queen's Speech are likely to be
education and welfare. The first may be easier to achieve than the
second. An Education Bill would allow parents, philanthropists,
charities and other groups to set up new state schools.

A Welfare Reform Bill would use private firms to get the unemployed,
sick and disabled into work on a payment-by-results basis. (- - - - -
- -)

The first 100 days would see George Osborne's first Budget. The
Queen's Speech could also include an NHS Bill to set up an
independent board to reduce ministers' day-to-day control; an
Immigration Bill to set a limit on the number of migrants from
outside the EU; and a Prisons and Rehabilitation Bill under which
state-run prisons would also be responsible for inmates after their
release.

How would Mr Cameron run his government? "The Blair-Brown style is
all about central control," said Mr Maude. "There would be a return
to something much more like more conventional cabinet government,
with a strong prime minister showing leadership and direction at the
top." He added: "To have a strong centre, you don't need a prime
minister's department. What you need is a strong prime minister who
sets direction clearly. David Cameron will be more trusting of his
colleagues, with their departments being held accountable but not
constantly being second-guessed and interfered with."

Formal contacts between the Opposition and the Civil Service will
begin next January. Whitehall is studying the speeches and statements
of Conservative frontbenchers more closely as the prospect of a
Cameron government grows. Some officials may welcome a change.

"The Civil Service is extremely demoralised and fed up. It is not
being treated with respect," said Mr Maude. "Civil servants don't
mind if their advice is not taken – decisions are up to ministers.
But there is real resentment that advice is not being sought."

But preparations, however extensive, only get you so far. Mr Maude, a
former minister, said: "In my experience, 75 per cent of what you do
in government is not implementing your programme but dealing with
events."

Europe – the issue that won't disappear
While David Cameron has talked up the environment, poverty and health
as part of his rebranding of the Conservatives, more traditional Tory
issues have been relegated further down the agenda – notably Europe.

Its ability to split the Tories was painfully illustrated during the
Thatcher and Major governments. Today the party's centre of gravity
is Eurosceptic, with Europhiles such as Kenneth Clarke reduced to a
rump. That has made Europe less of a headache in opposition; but
senior party figures admit it could become one in government, when
tricky decisions could no longer be fudged.

Mr Cameron has tossed a few bones to his Eurosceptic MPs, who think
he is "one of us". It is no coincidence that the two most Eurosceptic
members of the Shadow Cabinet, William Hague and Liam Fox, hold the
jobs – on foreign affairs and defence respectively – that place them
on the front line of relations with the rest of Europe.

Yet the Europhobes might be disappointed if Mr Cameron becomes Prime
Minister. He could have an early decision to make on the Treaty of
Lisbon, designed to streamline EU decision-making, which the Tories
oppose because it would increase majority voting. The party has
promised to call a referendum if the treaty has not been ratified by
all the other 26 EU states when it takes office. The process has been
delayed by Ireland's "no" vote in a referendum. A similar rejection
by Britain could plunge our relations with the EU into chaos.

If the treaty has been approved, the Tories have said they would not
"let the matter rest", but refuse to spell out precisely what they
would do. They might try to win back control of some powers handed to
the EU under Lisbon, but would almost certainly be given short shrift
by other EU members.

Similarly, the Tories would find it very difficult – if not
impossible – to implement their pledge to withdraw from the EU's
social chapter of workers' rights. Eurosceptics would then demand a
renegotiation of Britain's membership, but Mr Cameron is unlikely to
want the early years of his government overshadowed by trench warfare
with the EU. On relations with the US, meanwhile, Mr Cameron has had
a pop at the unilateralism of the current White House, but his
approach would essentially be the same as Gordon Brown's.

Unanswered questions
* Could the Tories' blueprint for government be blown off course by
the state of the economy they inherit from Gordon Brown? [Since it’s
quite clear that things can only get worse one would expect “the
Tories' blueprint” to have made contingency plans ! -cs]
* Has the Tory plan to put welfare at the heart of their first
Queen's Speech been wrecked by Labour's decision to bring in very
similar proposals? [Should be immensely helped -cs]
* How would a Tory government try to change Britain's commitments
under the Treaty of Lisbon if the treaty has already been approved by
all 27 EU member states? [Wave a succesful referendum under their
noses and say that since this is what the people want we have to form
a new relationship with the EU - by negotiation if possible or,
failing that, by leaving the EU for the EEA -cs]
* Would the Tories try to renegotiate EU membership if the other
nations refuse to let it withdraw from the social chapter? [see above]

Face to watch: Nicholas Boles
A key moderniser who heads the implementation unit drawing up the
blueprint for the early months of a Cameron government. Set up by the
Policy Exchange think-tank in 2002, road-testing some of the ideas
taken up by David Cameron. Selected to fight Grantham, Margaret
Thatcher's home town, at next election. Could rise swiftly up the
ministerial ladder.