Middle East Strategic Information (MESI) Analysis
No. 6 September 24, 2008
MESI Issue of the Week
Jordan's Outreach to Hamas: The Politics of Distress
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewBlog.aspx?ArticleId=33>
Pinhas Inbari
<http://list-jcpa.org/mail-mesi/assets/abdullah.jpg> Until recently,
Jordan was the only Arab country that had boycotted the fundamentalist
Hamas
<http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112
&FID=568&PID=0&IID=2106> movement. However, in 2007 Jordanian
intelligence held a series of meetings with Hamas leaders to end hostile
relations and start afresh.
Jordan's greatest fear is that it be considered the "alternative
homeland" for the Palestinians. That is why all political formulas that
Jordan is ready to consider are based on the "two-state solution" - a
Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
<http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112
&FID=568&PID=0&IID=2117> and a Jordanian state in the East Bank. Jordan
would only consider confederation arrangements with the Palestinians
after a Palestinian state is declared west of the Jordan River.
Israel's regional policies have thrown Jordan off balance. The tahdiya
(calm) agreement with Hamas caused great embarrassment to moderate Arab
countries and exploded the policy of isolating Hamas. In addition, in
its prisoner deal with Hizbullah
<http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112
&FID=568&PID=0&IID=2104> , Israel agreed to hand over to Hizbullah the
bodies of Jordanians. If Israel, for pragmatic reasons, finds it
appropriate to engage with Hamas, why shouldn't Jordan do the same?
Traditionally, Jordan has cooperated closely with Israel to maintain the
status quo in Jerusalem
<http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112
&FID=568&PID=0&IID=429> , and Israel has formally recognised Jordan's
role as the sole custodian of the Holy City's Muslim shrines, in line
with the 1994 "Arava agreement." However, Israel's preference to work
with UNESCO as opposed to Jordan regarding repairs to the Al Aqsa
staircase was seen to be aimed at ending Jordan's exclusive role as sole
custodian of Jerusalem's Muslim shrines.
There is a virtual consensus in the Arab media that Russia has been the
winner in its bloody attack on Georgia, while the U.S. and its Western
allies failed to protect their Georgian ally. Following the Russian
invasion of Georgia, King Abdullah II flew to Moscow and indicated an
interest in buying Russian weapons, with all of the implications such a
move entails.
Hamas influence in Jordan and the West Bank is rising. Iran
<http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112
&FID=568&PID=0&IID=2102> and Russia are moving to reshape the Middle
East. At the same time, Jordan fears it cannot trust the political will
of its traditional allies as Israel has diplomatically engaged Jordan's
adversaries - Syria
<http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112
&FID=568&PID=0&IID=2103> and Hamas. Jordan's current policy can best be
categorized as a "distress call" - one that should be heeded by Israel
and the West before it is too late. To read more of the article, please
click here.. <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewBlog.aspx?ArticleId=33>
MESI Weekly News Digest
Strategic Context
Europe Can Not Accept a Nuclear-Armed Iran, Calls for A Palestinian
State (Kuwait News Agency)
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1111>
Iran Secretly Modifying Missiles to Fit Nukes - IAEA by Mark Heinrich
(Arabian Business) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1068>
Al-Qaeda's New Bastion: Yemen (Straits Times)
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1108>
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=911>
Regional Affairs
Syria and Iran Bid for Seat on the Board of the IAEA (Gulf Daily News)
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1090>
Iran: A Spotlight on the Intra-Conservative Rift (Kuwait Times)
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1098>
London Daily 'Al-Hayat' Investigates Phenomenon of Child Warriors in
Lebanon (MEMRI) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1107>
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=910>
Commentary
Struggling over Civilisation by Khalil El-Anani (Al-Ahram)
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1086>
Al Qaradawi, Iran and the Battle of the Shia Expansion by Tariq
Alhomayed (Asharq Alawsat)
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1105>
Mirage of Palestinian Unity by Ramzy Baroud (Khaleej Times)
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1064>
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=957>
For more news, click here <http://www.mesi.org.uk/FromNews.aspx>
Paradigms and Anomalies
Paradigm: Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza, as exemplified by
the shelling in Beit hanoun.
Anomalies:
*
An IDF inquiry
<http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3538733,00.html> into
the civillian deaths in Beit Hanoun concluded from aerial footage, that
the deaths in question were caused not by an Israeli shell, but by the
conflagartion of the explosives and the weaponry carried by the
militants who were hit.
*
Israel often goes out of its way to avoid civilian casualties;
the attack on Hamas head Salah Shehada in 2002 was postponed
<http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85208/daniel-byman/do-targ
eted-killings-work.html> eight times, due to intelligence that
predicted high civilian costs.
*
Over the last few years Israel has managed to dramatically lower
<http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/939702.html> the rate of civilian
casualties to a rate of 1:30 - 1 civilian casualty for every 30 military
targets; a lower rate
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/targeted-killing-is-worki
_b_79616.html> than that of the U.S., the UK and Russia.
*
This figure would be lowered further were it not for hamas'
policy of operating from densely populated areas, a practice for which
it has been regularly admonished
<http://www.un.org/News/ossg/hilites/hilites_arch_view.asp?HighID=1066>
by the United Nations.
*
Finally, the Law of Armed Conflict, derived from international
law, allows for the practice of targeted killings, in compliance with
two requirements: distinction and proportionality. Since Israeli army
rules of engagement
<http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/IDFmorals
html> strictly forbid the harm of civilians (distinction); and the
practice of targeted killing is only employed in the context of the
heads of terror organisations and those immediately involved in planning
attacks on Israel (proportionately), the practice is legally justified
under International Law.
Quote of the Week
"The problem with Britain is that its law is not the law sent down by
Allah. This country says that it implements democracy, freedom of
expression, personal liberties, and the right to own property, but when
I expressed my belief by preaching to Islam - there was an impressive
response in the universities, and George and Michael became Omar and Abd
Al-Rahman, and Jane became Hadija...When they saw that Islam was
spreading in British universities at an unprecedented rate, and that the
non-Muslims - the Hindus, the Christians and the Jews - were accepting
Islam at an average rate of 21 people a day, it began to endanger their
society. Within 20 years, British society will have a Muslim majority.
Of course, this cannot be allowed by this secular regime, which wants to
strip society of any religious values connected to Allah."
Lebanese Sheikh Omar Bakri Muhammad, former leader of Hizb ut-Tahrir
and Al-Muhajiroun in the UK
<http://list-jcpa.org/Mesi-sub.html> .
The Middle East Strategic Information Analysis
<http://www.mesi.org.uk/Default.aspx> is a project of the Jerusalem
Centre for Public Affairs <http://jcpa.org/>
<http://list-jcpa.org/mail-mesi/inc/or.asp?idEmail=153581&mailLogCode=72
8786>
Wednesday 24 September 2008
<http://www.mesi.org.uk>
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