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Middle East Strategic Information (MESI) Analysis No. 6 September 24, 2008 MESI Issue of the Week Jordan's Outreach to Hamas: The Politics of Distress <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewBlog.aspx?ArticleId=33> Pinhas Inbari <http://list-jcpa.org/mail-mesi/assets/abdullah.jpg> Until recently, Jordan was the only Arab country that had boycotted the fundamentalist Hamas <http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112 &FID=568&PID=0&IID=2106> movement. However, in 2007 Jordanian intelligence held a series of meetings with Hamas leaders to end hostile relations and start afresh. Jordan's greatest fear is that it be considered the "alternative homeland" for the Palestinians. That is why all political formulas that Jordan is ready to consider are based on the "two-state solution" - a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza <http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112 &FID=568&PID=0&IID=2117> and a Jordanian state in the East Bank. Jordan would only consider confederation arrangements with the Palestinians after a Palestinian state is declared west of the Jordan River. Israel's regional policies have thrown Jordan off balance. The tahdiya (calm) agreement with Hamas caused great embarrassment to moderate Arab countries and exploded the policy of isolating Hamas. In addition, in its prisoner deal with Hizbullah <http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112 &FID=568&PID=0&IID=2104> , Israel agreed to hand over to Hizbullah the bodies of Jordanians. If Israel, for pragmatic reasons, finds it appropriate to engage with Hamas, why shouldn't Jordan do the same? Traditionally, Jordan has cooperated closely with Israel to maintain the status quo in Jerusalem <http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112 &FID=568&PID=0&IID=429> , and Israel has formally recognised Jordan's role as the sole custodian of the Holy City's Muslim shrines, in line with the 1994 "Arava agreement." However, Israel's preference to work with UNESCO as opposed to Jordan regarding repairs to the Al Aqsa staircase was seen to be aimed at ending Jordan's exclusive role as sole custodian of Jerusalem's Muslim shrines. There is a virtual consensus in the Arab media that Russia has been the winner in its bloody attack on Georgia, while the U.S. and its Western allies failed to protect their Georgian ally. Following the Russian invasion of Georgia, King Abdullah II flew to Moscow and indicated an interest in buying Russian weapons, with all of the implications such a move entails. Hamas influence in Jordan and the West Bank is rising. Iran <http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112 &FID=568&PID=0&IID=2102> and Russia are moving to reshape the Middle East. At the same time, Jordan fears it cannot trust the political will of its traditional allies as Israel has diplomatically engaged Jordan's adversaries - Syria <http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=112 &FID=568&PID=0&IID=2103> and Hamas. Jordan's current policy can best be categorized as a "distress call" - one that should be heeded by Israel and the West before it is too late. To read more of the article, please click here.. <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewBlog.aspx?ArticleId=33> MESI Weekly News Digest Strategic Context Europe Can Not Accept a Nuclear-Armed Iran, Calls for A Palestinian State (Kuwait News Agency) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1111> Iran Secretly Modifying Missiles to Fit Nukes - IAEA by Mark Heinrich (Arabian Business) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1068> Al-Qaeda's New Bastion: Yemen (Straits Times) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1108> <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=911> Regional Affairs Syria and Iran Bid for Seat on the Board of the IAEA (Gulf Daily News) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1090> Iran: A Spotlight on the Intra-Conservative Rift (Kuwait Times) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1098> London Daily 'Al-Hayat' Investigates Phenomenon of Child Warriors in Lebanon (MEMRI) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1107> <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=910> Commentary Struggling over Civilisation by Khalil El-Anani (Al-Ahram) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1086> Al Qaradawi, Iran and the Battle of the Shia Expansion by Tariq Alhomayed (Asharq Alawsat) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1105> Mirage of Palestinian Unity by Ramzy Baroud (Khaleej Times) <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=1064> <http://www.mesi.org.uk/ViewNews.aspx?ArticleId=957> For more news, click here <http://www.mesi.org.uk/FromNews.aspx> Paradigms and Anomalies Paradigm: Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza, as exemplified by the shelling in Beit hanoun. Anomalies: * An IDF inquiry <http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3538733,00.html> into the civillian deaths in Beit Hanoun concluded from aerial footage, that the deaths in question were caused not by an Israeli shell, but by the conflagartion of the explosives and the weaponry carried by the militants who were hit. * Israel often goes out of its way to avoid civilian casualties; the attack on Hamas head Salah Shehada in 2002 was postponed <http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85208/daniel-byman/do-targ eted-killings-work.html> eight times, due to intelligence that predicted high civilian costs. * Over the last few years Israel has managed to dramatically lower <http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/939702.html> the rate of civilian casualties to a rate of 1:30 - 1 civilian casualty for every 30 military targets; a lower rate <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/targeted-killing-is-worki _b_79616.html> than that of the U.S., the UK and Russia. * This figure would be lowered further were it not for hamas' policy of operating from densely populated areas, a practice for which it has been regularly admonished <http://www.un.org/News/ossg/hilites/hilites_arch_view.asp?HighID=1066> by the United Nations. * Finally, the Law of Armed Conflict, derived from international law, allows for the practice of targeted killings, in compliance with two requirements: distinction and proportionality. Since Israeli army rules of engagement <http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/IDFmorals html> strictly forbid the harm of civilians (distinction); and the practice of targeted killing is only employed in the context of the heads of terror organisations and those immediately involved in planning attacks on Israel (proportionately), the practice is legally justified under International Law. Quote of the Week "The problem with Britain is that its law is not the law sent down by Allah. This country says that it implements democracy, freedom of expression, personal liberties, and the right to own property, but when I expressed my belief by preaching to Islam - there was an impressive response in the universities, and George and Michael became Omar and Abd Al-Rahman, and Jane became Hadija...When they saw that Islam was spreading in British universities at an unprecedented rate, and that the non-Muslims - the Hindus, the Christians and the Jews - were accepting Islam at an average rate of 21 people a day, it began to endanger their society. Within 20 years, British society will have a Muslim majority. Of course, this cannot be allowed by this secular regime, which wants to strip society of any religious values connected to Allah." Lebanese Sheikh Omar Bakri Muhammad, former leader of Hizb ut-Tahrir and Al-Muhajiroun in the UK <http://list-jcpa.org/Mesi-sub.html> . The Middle East Strategic Information Analysis <http://www.mesi.org.uk/Default.aspx> is a project of the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs <http://jcpa.org/> <http://list-jcpa.org/mail-mesi/inc/or.asp?idEmail=153581&mailLogCode=72 8786> |
Wednesday, 24 September 2008
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