Tzipi Livni: on course to lead Israel?
Will it fall to the foreign minister to repair the damage done by Ehud Olmert, asks Philip Jacobson
Barring a dramatic last-minute slump in her fortunes, Israel's foreign minister Tzipi Livni will tomorrow emerge as a strong contender to become the country's next prime minister.
According to the latest polls, the tough, politically savvy Livni is well ahead in the primary race for a new leader of the ruling Kadima party to replace the corruption-tainted Ehud Olmert. Her closest rival, transport minister Shaul Mofaz, is some 20 per cent points behind, with two other candidates trailing out of sight.
The indications are that Livni already has the backing of at least 40 per cent of the centrist party's members, for whom Mofaz - an outspoken former general who favours attacking Iran's nuclear facilities - comes across as just too hawkish for comfort. That would give her victory outright:
in the event that a run-off against Mofaz was needed, she would still be favoured to win hands down.
Livni would then have six weeks in which to try to cobble together a new coalition government. If she succeeded, she would automatically become prime minister: if not, there would have to be a general election.
While nothing is ever certain on Israel's convoluted political landscape, there is a widespread perception that Livni is the only candidate capable of leading Kadima to victory. Some pundits have warned that the party may split, with Mofaz stomping off to join his natural allies on the Israeli right. Others note that Livni has hinted that if she were to suffer a shock defeat, she might well head for the door and form a breakaway faction.
There is one thing, however, on which the vast majority of Israelis will readily agree. When Olmert finally relinquishes the position which he brought into such ridicule and disgrace after the Kadima primaries, it will not be a moment too soon for the nation. 
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