An elephant in the HBOS

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

An elephant in the HBOS

Story of the day, as some might have noticed, is the "dramatic rescue of ailing mortgage giant Halifax Bank of Scotland" (HBOS), through a merger with Lloyds TSB.

So keen is the government on this rescue package – in which Gordon Brown has reputedly been directly involved – that it is thought it may waive competition rules to get the transaction over competition hurdles.

However, there is another tiny hurdle, the matter of approval from the EU commission's DG Competition, prop Neelie Kroes, under Council RegulationEC 139/2004 on "the control of concentrations between undertakings".

It ain't over until the lady in Brussels says "yes". Odd isn't it that this is getting such little attention. I can only trace one media reference. Yet approval cannot be taken for granted - the commission is known to have its own agenda. What would the government do if the lady says "no"?

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The climate change industry speaks

Courtesy of Watts up with that we learn that the ice melt in the Arctic is "officially" over. We are left with 9.4 percent more ice than last year, when the meltback reached the lowest level recorded since 1979.

This is somewhat later than my own premature announcementand it may or may not be significant. It could be just a blip in the current cycle of extended melting or it could be the turning point, signalling – along with other indicators – a return to cooling.

Either way, this could be of interest but, for the majority of people, they will never be given an opportunity to ponder over the importance or otherwise of this information. The bulk of the MSM already got in first, such as The Daily Telegraph two days ago.

Obviously retailing a press release from the WWF (which has a financial interest in stoking up concern about "global warming" and dying polar bears), the paper headlined, "Polar bears 'could become extinct' because of melting ice, scientists claim". Written by Louise Grey, the story then told us that, "Polar bears and other rare species are in danger of dying out, scientists fear, as latest figures show the Artic (sic) sea ice is at record lows."

The "scientists" (plural) turn out to be one man, a campaigner for WWF who rejoices in the title of "senior climate change advisor" at WWF International's Arctic Programme. This is Dr Martin Sommerkorn, who makes a living out of donations from people concerned about dying polar bears. Yet he is allowed to say, entirely unchallenged:

We are expecting confirmation of 2008 being either the lowest or the second-lowest year in terms of summer ice coverage. This means two years in a row of record lows since we started recording Arctic sea ice coverage. The trend of melting Arctic sea ice is alarming for the rest of the world. The Arctic is a key factor in stabilising the global climate so this is a global problem that demands an immediate and global response.

Then we get this gem:

Arctic ice is like a mirror, reflecting the sun's heat back into space. As that ice goes, Arctic waters absorb more heat, adding to global warming. Warming of the Arctic will soon release more greenhouse gases from the Arctic that were previously locked in permanently frozen ground.

Er … The Arctic is an ocean? And how is the melting of ice going to release more greenhouse gasses?

Anyhow, the point is that that this and many other papers are not going allow their readers to speculate that the ice might not be at risk after all or that the polar bears really are quite safe, their populations having increased to record levels.

In its current piece The Telegraph gets Walt Meier, a research scientist at NSIDC, to tell them what is going on. He thinks:

… this summer has been more remarkable than last year, in fact, because last year was had really optimal conditions to melt a lot of ice. We had clear skies with the Sun blazing down, we had warm temperatures, and winds that pushed the ice edge northwards.

We didn't have any of this this year, and yet we still came within 10 per cent of the record; so people might be tempted to call it a recovery, but I don't think that's a good term, we're still on a downwards trend towards ice-free Arctic summers.

Meier adds that last seven years are among the seven lowest on record in terms of Arctic sea ice, telling us, "That's a real indication that this isn't any kind of temporary climate cycle. It's more an indication that we're heading toward the point where we're going to have that sea ice completely melt in the coming decades or perhaps sooner."

So there you are – whatever the news on "climate change", it can only point in one direction. And even though the ice pack is larger than last year at the end of the melt, this obvious indicates that it is going to melt completely in the coming years. That is the "climate change industry" (CCI) for you, protecting its own interests, with the wholehearted support of the MSM.

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You can lead a politician to water …

I think the comment of Nick Fletcher on his Market Forces clog for The Guardian says it all: "Traders have no idea which way to turn today. One minute shares are soaring, the next they are slumping…".

That sort of chimes with the comment I picked up yesterday after crawling out of the pit and switching on the radio: "Nobody seems to know what they are doing…".

The terrible truth dawning is that this is probably true. Elsewhere Iain Dalehas a pop at Dib-Lem leader Nick Cleg for not knowing what the single retirement pension was, hazarding a guess at £30 when the true rate is £90.70.

The obvious question to ask is, "can politicians really be that ignorant?", to which the answer is probably "yes". In fact, there is no "probably" about it. And that was an easy question. When it comes to the more complicated issues, like the energy crisis or the increasing encroachment of the EU in the administration of our government, most politicians do not have a clue. They are not even off first base. They really are that ignorant.

Part of the problem here – as we have observed before – is that they do not discuss these issues. There is no political debate about energy, nor the EU nor on sensitive issues like immigration. And if you don't discuss these things, you don't learn and your understanding does not develop.

Worst of all, when policy issues are not discussed, phenomenal levels of stupidity and crass decisions like this are not picked up. Then, in the fullness of time, when the consequences become apparent, everyone is surprised and dismayed that they could have happened and nobody did anything about them.

That is the message of the moment. All sorts of things are happening now which are the result of decisions taken (or not taken) in the past, unremarked or not given the scrutiny they deserve. It is easy now being wise after the event, but the problem is that not enough people were wisebefore the event – or they were not being heard.

So it is that, as we are assailed with the bad news of the day, tomorrow's crises are already in the making, all because no one seems to know what they are doing or – more to the point – they are avoiding the discussion and letting ignorance be their guide. The real mother of all problems though, is that oft misquoted saw: "you can lead a politician to water, but you cannot make him think".

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