Here is the BEV chart for the Bear Race. Week 54 in the Dow Jones’ Race to the Bottom between 1929 and 2007 bear markets are as follows: 1929 : -36.59% from its all time weekly closing high price of 380.33 2007 : -40.55% from its all time weekly closing high price of 14,093.08 For the third week in a row, the 2007 bear leads the 1929 bear. I anticipate a bounce sometime soon. But I said that two weeks ago and it hasn’t happed yet. We know that Treasury Secretary Paulson has $700,000,000,000 to spend on managing our “free markets.” On what and how much has he spent so far? I don’t know. If he has devoted most of his resources on the stock market and this is all we get, then 2007 is really going after 1929 for the record. It is likely that the stock market is not priority #1 for the US Treasury. “Gotta save the banks.” Former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan testified before Congress this week. Under oath he confessed he never knew much of anything about economics or money. As usual, the Congress believed every word Greenspan said. The table below is not intended to be a prediction on my part. I’m simply supplying the various mile stones the DJIA 2007 bear must pass to exceed past bear markets. Cut it out and keep it as a handy guide for the specific Dow Levels needed for the 2007 to pass the other eight historic -40% bear markets. Before this is all over I suspect that the 2007 bear market will be moving up from its current #9 position on the table below. As per the table above, for the 2007 bear to rise up from #9 to the #8 spot, the weekly closing price of the Dow Jones Industrials must fall below 7799.61. If Dow takes out 7799.61, it is only 439.68 point away from becoming #4 on the above list. In the current market, the Dow has had hourly swings as large as that. I think making the #4 spot will prove to be an easy thing for the 2007 DJIA Bear to do. After that things will start to get harder. Since 1885 the Dow has closed 50% below its previous all time highs only 3 times before and has not done so since 1942. But then maybe be we are due for a -50% bear market as we have not had one since 1942. Until the 2007 bear takes out the -50% lows of 1896 and 1942, one must assume that the current bear market will be a bad bear, but nothing catastrophic. Note For the Record: Mark Lundeen does not want a devastating bear market in the next two years. However, in full view of Congressional Market Oversight Committees and under the supervision of Government Regulatory Agencies, things were done that I believe will make a historic bear market inevitable. If you have a problem with this bear market, contact Washington, not Mark Lundeen. Dow Jones -40% Declines From 1885 to 2008 is the article that inspired this race of 1929 & 2007 Bear Markets. You may want to read that article to understand my “BEV Chart” Above.
Week 54 of 149
Mlundeen2@Comcast.net
Sunday, 26 October 2008
The 1929 & 2007 Bear Market Race To The Bottom
Mark J. Lundeen
24 October 2008
Posts
