Thursday, 30 October 2008

 


. Polls Show Likud Regaining Lead
by Hillel Fendel Polls Show Likud Regaining Lead



Public opinion surveys released Thursday morning show that the Likud Party has regained its lead over Kadima, and that Labor is losing popularity.

A poll taken by Shvakim Panorama for Voice of Israel Radio's Second Channel shows a total reversal of the trend of a few days ago. Instead of Kadima leading by 1-3 seats, as seen immediately after Tzipi Livni decided on new elections, the Likud is now shown to be leading by 3 Knesset mandates.

The Shvakim poll shows the Likud receiving 25-26 seats in the Knesset in the coming elections, and Kadima only 22-23 seats. Labor will receive only 16-17 seats, according to this poll.

Broadcaster: Don't Pay Any Attention

Veteran Israel Broadcasting Authority broadcaster Ayala Hasson dramatically introduced the results. She warned that polls will occasionally show a certain party plummeting and close to disappearing, and made it clear that such polls need not be taken too seriously.

A second poll, carried out by New Wave Research for the Yisrael HaYom daily newspaper, shows a tighter race between Likud and Kadima, and a sharper drop for Labor. The survey shows Likud leading Kadima by a 31-30 margin, and Labor dropping to only 13 seats.

In the current Knesset, which was voted in nearly three years ago, Kadima has 29 seats, Labor 19, and the Likud only 12.

Smaller Parties to Remain Small

The New Wave poll places Labor just above Shas, which currently has 11 seats and is forecast to receive one less in the upcoming elections. The Shvakim survey shows Shas receiving 12 seats and possibly more.

The surveys are in agreement that the United Torah Judaism and Meretz will remain a their current level of 5-6, with a one-seat advantage to UTJ; that the Pensioners are likely to disappear from the electoral map; that the Greens are, as usual, just at or under the minimum level for Knesset representation; and that the Arab parties will garner 10 Knesset seats altogether.

In the Nationalist Camp

The respective fates of the parties promoting Jewish sovereignty over Judea and Samaria - Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home), headed by Avigdor Lieberman, and National Union/National Religious Party - are not entirely clear. They currently have 11 and 9 seats, respectively. The Shvakim poll foresees them either remaining at their current levels or losing one seat each. New Wave's prognosis is graver, giving Lieberman only 8 and NU/NRP only 6.

The 9 MKs of the NU/NRP convened last night to finalize details on the way in which their seven member parties and movements will run together in the upcoming elections. A panel of candidates will be chosen by a board of public personalities, but final details have still not yet been ironed out.

Labor Primaries

In Labor, party leader Defense Minister Ehud Barak has announced that, contrary to rumors, the party will hold primaries to choose its list of Knesset candidates. Some MKs had suggested that the current line-up be retained, in order to save the money involved in holding primaries.

Internal Kadima Tensions

In Kadima, party leader Tzipi Livni met with her main competitor within the party, Sha'ul Mofaz, and asked him to lead the party's election campaign. Though he wanted to have the party's second slot reserved for him, and thus avoid having to run in the primaries, Kadima's legal counsel said this was impossible. Livni told Mofaz, however, "From my point of view, you are the party's #2 man."

Tensions between the Livni and Mofaz camps has not abated, however, and Mofaz has reportedly told confidantes,"Livni is taking the party towards extremism. Her way is far from mine; this is a loss of direction." The differences between them have been manifest of late in Livni's attack on Shas as "blackmailers" and her promise to promote civil marriages. Mofaz himself says he is more "tradition-minded" than the way Kadima is now being portrayed.

Mofaz supporters within Kadima include MKs Shneller, Tirosh, Avraham-Belila, Tal, Elkin and Boim.

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2. Iran Masked Nuke Test as Quake
by Hillel Fendel Iran Masked Nuke Test as Quake

A weekend 5.0 Richter earthquake in Iran was actually a nuclear bomb test, says an Iranian nuclear scientist claiming to be working on the project.

The report is an Israel Insider exclusive.

This past Saturday night, southern Iran experienced what was reported as a significant earthquake - a seismic event measuring 5.0 on the Richter scale. Its epicenter was just north of the strategic Straits of Hormuz, which separates Iran from Abu Dhabi and Oman and which is the gateway to the Persian Gulf.

The report quotes an Iranian nuclear scientist who claims to be working in uranium enrichment for the project, and who said that the "quake" was acutally an undergound nuclear bomb test.

Israel Insider adds that the test/quake was actually the second in a series. Nine days ago, a 4.8 Richter scale event occurred, with its epicenter only five kilometers away from the weekend tremor.

The Israel Insider source reports that two nuclear rockets are currently ready - and are intended for use against Israel in the coming months.

If the report is correct, it would belie previous speculation that Iran would not begin nuclear testing until it had more nuclear-bomb production capability.

The geographical location of the test has several advantages. It is exposed to significant seismic activity, which could serve to mask nuclear tests; it is believed to be close to Iran's nuclear development facility; delivery and transport of material and personnel can be effected easily through the Hormuz Strait; and Iranian enemies would hesitate to bomb the area because that would threaten the flow of a substantial percentage of the world's oil.

Reuters reports Thursday morning that Iran has begun building a line of naval bases along its southern coast and up to the Straits of Hormuz.

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3. Obama Friend of PLO?
by Maayana Miskin Obama Friend of PLO? Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is demanding that the Los Angeles Times release a videotape which could prove embarrassing for his Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama. The tape reportedly shows Obama speaking of his friendship with former PLO spokesman Rashid Khalidi.

The LA Times reported in April 2008 that Sen. Obama attended a farewell party in 2003 honoring Khalidi. According to the report, Obama gave a speech at the event and spoke warmly of Khalidi. Khalidi was active on behalf of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) at a time when the PLO was a U.S.-designated terrorist group with a goal of destroying Israel.

Despite reporting on the event, the Times has refused to allow the public to see the videotape on which the report was based. "The Los Angeles Times did not publish the videotape because it was provided to us by a confidential source who did so on the condition that we not release it," editor Russ Stanton said in a press release. "The Times keeps its promises to sources." Times staffers also refused to provide a transcript of the tape.

In addition to Obama's speech praising Khalidi, the tape allegedly provides evidence that William Ayers attended the event. Obama has faced criticism for his ties to Ayers, who along with others founded the Weather Underground, a group that carried out bombings and jailbreaks in the US in the 1960s and 70s.

The demands that the LA Times release the tape began circulating in conservative weblogs and quickly reached the McCain campaign. “A major news organization is intentionally suppressing information that could provide a clearer link between Barack Obama and Rashid Khalidi," said McCain spokesman Michael Goldfarb. The refusal to hand over the tape is evidence of a pro-Obama media bias, he said.

McCain criticized the Times in an interview on La Kalle radio, saying, "I guarantee you, if there was a tape with me and Sarah Palin and some neo-Nazi or one of those, you think that that tape wouldn't be made public?” Americans have the right to know about Obama's ties to the PLO and to Ayers, McCain said.

McCain's vice-presidential candidate, Governor Sarah Palin, accused the Times of “kowtowing” – presumably to the Obama campaign. While Obama himself reportedly did not criticize America or Israel during the party, others at the event were critical of both countries, she said. “What we don't know is how Barack Obama responded to these slurs on a country that he now professes to support,” she told Fox News.

Obama's aides attempted to downplay his relationship with Khalidi, saying that Khalidi is not one of Obama's advisers and does not share his political views. Aides accused McCain of focusing on the issue in order to distract the public from financial issues. Obama has been consistent in his support of Israel, aides said.

Khalidi, now a professor in Columbia University in New York, refused to comment on the story or on his friendship with Obama.

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4. Happy Ending to Kidnapping Tale
by Hana Levi Julian Happy Ending to Kidnapping Tale

An Israeli businessman managed to escape his African kidnappers in Ghana late Wednesday night after being held hostage for at least a week. He was reported unharmed.

Details of the kidnappers' identity and their motivation for abducting the Israeli were not made available.

The businessman flagged down a cab and contacted local authorities after he reached a hotel. Israeli Foreign Ministry officials said he has been reunited with his relatives, who are currently in the West African nation.

The man, who is described as being in his 60s, was kidnapped approximately a week ago. Kidnappings are common in several African countries, although generally not in Ghana. The incident has embarrassed the country, which has reputation for being relatively stable.

Ghana's National Security Coordinator Sam Amoo told the Ghana News Agency last week that a task force had been established to work for the release of the Israeli hostage.

Initially the kidnappers had demanded a ransom of half a million dollars, but shortly before their captive's escape, it had been reduced to $30,000.

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5. PA's Rusty Wheels of Justice

by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu PA's Rusty Wheels of Justice

The judicial system in the Palestinian Authority leaves criminal suspects languishing in jails for an average of 14 years before courts rule on charges against them, according to a new European Union (EU) study. Some suspects literally spent a life term in prison without even going to trial.

Ninety percent of suspected criminals are still waiting for trial dates despite last year's international pledges of billions of dollars in aid, much of which was supposed to go towards reforming the judicial and police system. In addition, $242 million was pledged four months ago for new courthouses and prisons.

The EU estimates it will take the PA 14 years to clear the present backlog of 4,000 criminal cases, with several hundred suspects in jail, and the organization has announced plans for reform.

Including civil cases, the backlog stands at 50,000 cases, a figure which does not take into account the statistics in Gaza, which is under the rule of the de facto Hamas government.

"We have problems at all levels," EU reform program director Christophe Lukits told reporters in Ramallah on Tuesday.

Recently deployed PA special forces troops in Jenin, Shechem and Hevron are expected to put more suspects in jail without trial.

The PA human right group Al-Haq charged earlier this year that security services in both the Fatah-run areas of Judea and Samaria and in Hamas-controlled Gaza are operating illegally.

"Palestinian security forces are totally disregarding any attempt made by the civil judiciary to exercise any form of control over their actions, capitalizing on the unconditional support provided by the military judiciary to their misconduct," according to Al-Haq.

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6. Kassam Attack, No Injuries
by Hana Levi Julian Kassam Attack, No Injuries

The wail of the Color Red incoming rocket attack alert system shattered the early morning calm in the western Negev Thursday morning as Gaza terrorists again broke the ceasefire with Israel.

A rocket fired from northern Gaza slammed into the field of a kibbutz located near the city of Sderot at 7:47 a.m., while children were walking to school and their parents were on their way to work. People raced for cover in an echo of "the old days."

No one was injured and no damage was reported.

The agreement has been broken dozens of times, with more than 20 Kassam rockets and 25 mortar shellings since it was announced on June 19 since it began on June 19. Israel responds as it did Thursday morning, by closing the crossing with Gaza and shutting down deliveries of goods to the region.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak ordered the crossings closed for a day last week in response to a similar attack that sent a rocket hurtling into the Ashkelon Beach Regional Council district.

However, even when the crossings are ordered "closed" Israel allows in many Palestinian Authority Arab residents of Gaza who receive medical aid in Israel.

Sha'ar HaNegev Regional Council head Alon Schuster called on the government to fulfill its promise to fortify homes in Gaza Belt communities against the rockets.

Hamas has proposed a renewal of the temporary truce, which is slated to end in November, but only if Israel is willing to extend the terms to include Judea and Samaria, and to reopen the Rafiah Crossing as well.

Such an agreement would mean pulling out all IDF military forces from every part of Judea and Samaria, and opening the crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which Israel has said will remain closed until Hamas returns kidnapped IDF St. Sgt. Gilad Shalit. The terrorist group abducted the soldier near the Kerem Shalom Crossing on June 25, 2006.

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7. MK: 'Mubarak Can Jump in a Lake'
by Maayana Miskin MK: 'Mubarak Can Jump in a Lake'

MK Avigdor Lieberman said Wednesday that Israel should insist that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak pay an official state visit to the Jewish homeland. Israeli leaders have traveled to see Mubarak in Egypt dozens of times, while Mubarak has never once returned the gesture, he said. “He wants to talk to us? He can come here. If he doesn't want to come here, he can go jump in a lake [lit. “go to the winds”--ed,” Lieberman said.

Lieberman made his comments during a Knesset ceremony honoring slain Tourism Minister Rechavam Ze'evi, head of the Moledet (Homeland) party. Ze'evi, also known as Gandhi, was assassinated seven years ago by Palestinian Authority (PA) terrorists who targeted him due to his nationalist views.

Ze'evi would have expected Egyptian leaders to visit Israel in addition to receiving Israeli politicians in Egypt, Lieberman said. “Gandhi would never have agreed to Israel's self-deprecation vis-a-vis Egypt,” he insisted.

Lieberman also expressed his own views on Israel's relationship with surrounding Arab countries and with the PA. “We must understand that peace is derived from security, and not the opposite,” he said. “If we are strong and determined and restore the power of deterrence, everyone will respect us. Everyone will want to be at peace with us. If we stutter, apologize, attempt to ingratiate ourselves—everyone will hit us in the face. Everyone will want to test us.”

Shortly after Lieberman's speech, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres rushed to apologize to Mubarak for his remarks. Both Olmert and Peres called Mubarak and apologized personally in the name of the state of Israel.

Olmert called Lieberman's remarks “destructive and unnecessary.” He told Mubarak that he sees him as “a strategic partner and a good friend" and added that Israel is interested in strengthening ties with Egypt.

Peres termed Lieberman's statement “unfitting,” and issued an official statement praising Mubarak. “The state of Israel has great respect for President Mubarak and for his country for their important role in promoting peace in the area,” the statement said.

After hearing of Peres and Olmert's apologies, Lieberman said Wednesday night, “This is exactly the kind of ingratiation that I was talking about.” Before apologizing to Mubarak, “the leadership must first ask the people's forgiveness for Oslo and the Disengagement,” he said.

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