If elections were held today, the right-wing camp would garner 61 Knesset
seats while 58 would go to the center-left. The numbers are close, but the
political difference between the blocs is much greater, and favors the right
as of now, according to a Haaretz-Dialog poll conducted last night.
seats while 58 would go to the center-left. The numbers are close, but the
political difference between the blocs is much greater, and favors the right
as of now, according to a Haaretz-Dialog poll conducted last night.
The poll, held under the supervision of Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv
University's statistics department, shows that 30 percent of Labor
supporters in 2006 - a number representing about six Knesset seats - said
they would vote for Kadima. Meanwhile, 20 percent of Kadima voters in 2006 -
again, worth about six seats - said they would return "home" to Likud.
University's statistics department, shows that 30 percent of Labor
supporters in 2006 - a number representing about six Knesset seats - said
they would vote for Kadima. Meanwhile, 20 percent of Kadima voters in 2006 -
again, worth about six seats - said they would return "home" to Likud.
Likud chairman MK Benjamin Netanyahu would find himself in the ideal
position of being able to easily form a number of alternative governments:
with Kadima, Labor and the ultra-Orthodox; with Kadima, the ultra-Orthodox
and the right; or with Labor, the ultra-Orthodox and the right.
position of being able to easily form a number of alternative governments:
with Kadima, Labor and the ultra-Orthodox; with Kadima, the ultra-Orthodox
and the right; or with Labor, the ultra-Orthodox and the right.
Although Tzipi Livni would win an equal number of seats, she would be in a
far inferior position: The center-left camp includes 11 Arab MKs and two
from the Green Party, which might not pass the minimum threshold to get into
the Knesset.
far inferior position: The center-left camp includes 11 Arab MKs and two
from the Green Party, which might not pass the minimum threshold to get into
the Knesset.
The poll shows that currently, at the outset of the campaign, Kadima and
Likud, and the two large parliamentary blocs, are neck-and-neck. Unexpected
events could move a few seats from bloc to bloc, and then the whole picture
could change. If the center-left bloc garners the 61 votes, it could thwart
Netanyahu's efforts to form a government, but the government that Livni
would form would have to bring in a right-wing element or two, which will
make it difficult for her to make diplomatic moves.
Likud, and the two large parliamentary blocs, are neck-and-neck. Unexpected
events could move a few seats from bloc to bloc, and then the whole picture
could change. If the center-left bloc garners the 61 votes, it could thwart
Netanyahu's efforts to form a government, but the government that Livni
would form would have to bring in a right-wing element or two, which will
make it difficult for her to make diplomatic moves.
Likud gains from right
The poll predicts that Likud would receive additional seats from right-wing
parties Shas and the National Union, which had a weak showing in the survey.
Quite a few Likud voters in the upcoming elections are those who did not
vote in 2006, a number that translates into about seven seats.
parties Shas and the National Union, which had a weak showing in the survey.
Quite a few Likud voters in the upcoming elections are those who did not
vote in 2006, a number that translates into about seven seats.
While Netanyahu and the right are beginning their battle from a very
comfortable position, Labor and its leader, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, are
in the midst of a catastrophe. According to the poll, Labor and Shas are
tied for the position of fourth-largest party in the next Knesset, after
Kadima (31), Likud (31) and Israel Beiteinu (11).
comfortable position, Labor and its leader, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, are
in the midst of a catastrophe. According to the poll, Labor and Shas are
tied for the position of fourth-largest party in the next Knesset, after
Kadima (31), Likud (31) and Israel Beiteinu (11).
Barak and Labor need no less than a political miracle to recover and
extricate themselves from this predicament. However, Barak performs
excellently in political campaigns, as he showed twice, in the 1999 campaign
against Netanyahu and the 2007 primaries against Ami Ayalon, both times
starting from an inferior position.
extricate themselves from this predicament. However, Barak performs
excellently in political campaigns, as he showed twice, in the 1999 campaign
against Netanyahu and the 2007 primaries against Ami Ayalon, both times
starting from an inferior position.
Those surveyed gave Barak poor marks on various issues involving suitability
for the premiership, except on the question of his ability to handle
Israel's security problems. In answer to the question "Who in your opinion
is more able to deal with Israel's security problems, particularly the
Iranian nuclear threat?" Netanyahu got 33 percent of the vote, Barak 26
percent and Livni only 14 percent.
for the premiership, except on the question of his ability to handle
Israel's security problems. In answer to the question "Who in your opinion
is more able to deal with Israel's security problems, particularly the
Iranian nuclear threat?" Netanyahu got 33 percent of the vote, Barak 26
percent and Livni only 14 percent.
The full survey will be published in Week's End tomorrow.
=========
| Thursday, October 30, 2008 |
| Poll: Likud 25-26 Kadima 22-23 Labor 16-17 |
| Dr. Aaron Lerner Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Shvakim Panorama for Israel Radio's Hakol Diburim (It's All Talk) 29 October 2008. Please note: 29.8% undecided. The outcome shown below shows a range based on two models: #1 Seats based only on the 70.2% who indicated who they would vote for #2 Seats based on allocating the undecided vote based on their background - including: party they voted for in the last elections, self identification between "right" and "left", positions expressed on various issues that make it possible to identify the ideological position of the respondent and/or socio-demographic profile. 22-23 [29] Kadima headed by Livni 16-17 [19] Labor 25-26 [12] Likud 11-12 [12] Shas 10-11 [11] Yisrael Beteinu 07-08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP 06-07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah 05-06 [05] Meretz 02-03 [00] Green Party 00-01*[00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party) 01-02*[07] Retirees Party 09-10 [10] Arab parties * does not get minimum votes for Knesset representation ============= Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis) (mail POB 982 Kfar Sava) Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730 INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il Website: http://www.imra.org.il |
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