CHINA CONFIDENTIAL
Thursday, October 09, 2008
North Korea Preparing Big Missile Launch
An October surprise from Islamist Iran's nuclear tag-team partner....
As if to confirm every relevant China Confidential prediction and analysis, North Korea is (a) moving to completely scrap its nuclear disarmament pact with five foreign powers, and (b) preparing for an extremely provocative new missile launch only two days after firing two short-range missiles into the Yellow Sea.
The secretive, Stalinist/Kimist regime has deployed more than 10 missiles on its west coast for what appears to be an imminent launch, a South Korean newspaper said on Thursday.
The Chosun Ilbo paper said intelligence sources believed the North may launch five to seven surface-to-ship and ship-to-ship missiles. Firing all 10 missiles would be an unprecedented act by the North, which has reportedly forbidden ships to sail in an area in the Yellow Sea until October 15 in preparation for the launch,
Also on Thursday, the North barred UN monitoring throughout its Yongbyon nuclear complex in a significant step toward scrapping the nuclear disarmament pact.
The move comes exactly two years after Pyongyang's first nuclear weapon test--which China Confidential predicted to the day.
Our current forecast is that the North will never abandon atomic arms and may even detonate another nuclear device this year ... after test-firing at least one long-range missile ... which could carry a mock nuclear warhead. South Korean and other intelligence officials believe the North is developing nuclear warhead technology.
Israeli intelligence experts believe the North intends to share its warhead technology with nuclear-arming Iran, which is also working on intercontinental ballistic missiles.
UPDATE: Bloomberg reported Thursday that North Korea accused South Korean naval ships of violating its territorial waters on the west coast, warning of a possible clash.
The situation has ``become so tense that a naval clash may break out due to such military provocations as the ceaseless infiltration of warships deep into the North Korea's territorial waters,'' the official Korea Central News Agency reported today, citing a spokesman for the Navy Command.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
US General Calls North Korea 'Huge Security Risk'
North Korea’s assertions of its nuclear weapons capability and the likelihood that it’s proliferating weapons of mass destruction represent a huge security risk for the region and the world, the top US commander in Korea told Pentagon reporters today.
“I worry about it every day,” Army Gen. Walter “Skip” Sharp, commander of US Forces Korea, said of concerns that North Korea is exporting its weapons of mass destruction and missile technology to those who could use it against the United States and other countries.
“So am I confident it’s not happening? No,” Sharp continued. “But I think it’s one of the concerns that we have with North Korea and will continue to have in the future.”
Sharp declined to verify news reports that North Korea conducted a short-range missile test yesterday, but said the United States is keeping a close eye on these and related developments.
“I can’t say anything specific, but I will say that we continue to be concerned about the development, the proliferation and the testing of missile systems in North Korea,” he said. “They have a long history of that, and it is a danger for the region, and we’re concerned about it.”
Intelligence sources are monitoring North Korea’s activities “very closely,” Sharp said, and the United States and other countries are working together to discourage them. “We take necessary actions to try to minimize [those activities],” he said. “It’s all our obligations to be able to watch that, report it and stop it.”
Meanwhile, Sharp said it’s evident that North Korea has reneged on its commitment made through the Six-Party Talks. “They’re not following through,” he said. That, he said, is why Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill recently returned to North Korea to try to salvage the plan.
“We want to be sure that … what [North Korean leader Kim Jong Il] agreed to in the Six-Party talks, he is actually accomplishing,” Sharp said. “And Secretary Hill is working very hard on that as he works through those negotiations.”
Sharp expressed the hope that the State Department’s efforts to achieve stability in the region will succeed. “I am hopeful that their efforts will bear fruit and that North Korea will abide by its agreement that has been made throughout that process,” he said.
While watching to ensure “there’s nothing out of the ordinary that’s happening up north,” US Forces Korea and Republic of Korea forces stand ready to defend South Korea in the event that deterrence fails, Sharp said. “We’re really focusing on our capability to be able to react,” he said.Is Iceland the Tip of the Iceberg?
Foreign Confidential....
Iceland has long been known for hot models, hot springs ... and ... hot money. But the party is over. The country is crashing, and the implications could be global. If ever a nation's changing climate reflected the mood of its people, it is here. Every morning, it seems, the residents awake to news of fresh problems in their country's banking system. Last week, the country's third largest bank was nationalised. This week, the government dismissed the board of directors of Landsbanki, its second-largest bank, and put it into receivership. On Monday, the Prime Minister, Geir Haarde, warned its citizens the country faces bankruptcy.
Iceland, with a population the size of Bristol, is rated by the UN as the most developed society on earth. But it now faces less welcome distinction as the country worst exposed to the credit crunch, with banking debts several times bigger than its economy.
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Thursday, 9 October 2008
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