McCain Draws Even With Obama After Debate in AP Poll (Update2) By Catherine Dodge Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Republican John McCain erased Democrat Barack Obama's lead in the presidential race less than two weeks before Election Day in an Associated Press-GfK poll, as two other surveys put Obama ahead by 10 points or more. The AP poll, taken over five days following the candidates' final debate Oct. 15, shows Obama with 44 percent support and McCain with 43 percent backing among likely voters. Similarly, an Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll shows the race tightening to a 4-point Obama lead. Other polls give Obama a wide lead. The Illinois senator holds a 14-point lead over McCain in a Pew Research Center poll released today. The survey, taken Oct. 16-19, shows Obama supported by 52 percent of registered voters and McCain backed by 38 percent. In late September, the Pew poll showed Obama had a 7-point lead. The poll of 2,599 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll put Obama's support at 52 percent of registered voters to McCain's 42 percent, the biggest lead Obama has had over McCain in the poll since both men won their parties' nominations. The survey, conducted Oct. 17-20, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Poll results can vary because researchers use different methods and assumptions for defining likely voters, said Karlyn Bowman, who tracks polling at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Differences in how questions are asked and how much respondents are pushed in one direction or another can also cause discrepancies, she said. Out of Step Some polls are occasionally out of step with others, Bowman said. ``It could be one of the polls today is an outlier.'' Pollsters screen likely voters from registered voters by asking questions such as whether the person voted in previous elections, their intensity of feelings toward one candidate or another and whether they know where to vote. The screening methods are often considered proprietary and aren't published. A Fox News poll taken Oct. 20-21 has Obama ahead by 9 points with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. That means as much as a 6-point spread is within the error margin. Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. The poll was conducted Oct. 18-21 among 1,330 people nationwide with a 2.5 percent margin of error. The AP poll of 800 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Among registered voters, Obama was up 5 points. The AP poll showed McCain gaining support from people making less than $50,000. The Realclearpolitics.com average of polls put Obama's lead at 7 points. The gap has increased steadily since mid-September. To contact the reporter on this story: Catherine Dodge in Washington atcdodge1@bloomberg.net.
Thursday, 23 October 2008
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