china confidential
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Iran Leaping Toward ICBM Capabilities
Foreign Confidential....
Iran seems to have made significant progress in the application of solid-fuel missile technology. An article in Janes Defense Systems News analyzes the significance of last week's missile test:"This is a whole new missile," Uzi Rubin, former director of Israel's Ballistic Missile Defence Organisation, told Jane's . "Unlike other Iranian missiles, the Sajil bears no resemblance to any North Korean, Russian, Chinese or Pakistani [missile technology]. It demonstrates a significant leap in Iran's missile capabilities.
"Regardless of the success of the test, this missile places Iran in the realm of multiple-stage missiles, which means that they are on the way to having intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities," he added.
In statements released by state media, Iranian Defence Minister Brigadier General Mustafa Mohammad Najjar hailed the launch of the Sajil missile as "very fast", adding that it would be easy to produce. Tehran's Al-Alam television reported that the new missile utilises "composite solid-propellant fuel" and that unlike the Shahab-3 MRBM, which is launched only vertically, the Sajil could be launched "at a variable angle".
Video released by Iranian state media clearly shows a two-stage missile with a guidance system on the second stage and a triconic re-entry vehicle identical to that of the Shahab-3. However, the Sajil's diameter appears greater than the 1.25 m of the Shahab. Intelligence sources consider the Sajil to be a new name for Iran's Ashura MRBM, which failed to deploy its second stage in an unsuccessful launch in November 2007.
With a purported range of 2,000 km, the Sajil brings Moscow, Athens and southern Italy within striking distance from Iran. It is this kind of threat that has spurred the US development of a missile defence shield in Europe - most recently seen with the planned placement of interceptors in Poland - despite objections from Russia.
David Eshel provides additional analysis and background information here.
UN: Manmade Brown Clouds Threaten Earth
Cities from Beijing to New Delhi are getting darker, glaciers in ranges like the Himalayas are melting faster and weather systems are becoming more extreme, in part, due to the combined effects of man-made Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
These are among the conclusions of a new United Nations Environment Program report. Scientist studied more than three km-thick layer of soot and other manmade particles that stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China and the western Pacific Ocean. Click here to read the summary.
Black Carbon
The report claims that the brown clouds are caused by burning of fossil fuels and biomass, and that in some cases and regions, the clouds are aggravating the impacts of greenhouse gas-induced climate change,
This is because ABCs lead to the formation of particles like black carbon and soot that absorb sunlight and heat the air; and gases such as ozone which enhance the greenhouse effect of CO2.
Globally, however, brown clouds may be countering or "masking" the warming impacts of climate change by between 20 and up to 80 per cent, the researchers suggest.
This is because of particles such as sulfates and some organics which reflect sunlight and cool the surface.
Air Quality and Agriculture
The cloud is also having impacts on air quality and agriculture in Asia increasing risks to human health and food production for three billion people.
The phenomenon has been most intensively studied over Asia. This is in part because of the region's already highly variable climate including the formation of the annual Monsoon, the fact that the region is undergoing massive growth and is home to around half the world's population.
But the scientists today made clear that there are also brown clouds elsewhere including over parts of North America, Europe, southern Africa and the Amazon Basin which also require urgent and detailed research.
ABC Hotspots
Five regional hotspots for ABCs have been identified. These are:
*East Asia, covering eastern China;
*The Indo-Gangetic plains in South Asia from the northwest and northeast regions of eastern Pakistan across India to Bangladesh and Myanmar;
*Southeast Asia, covering Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam;
*Southern Africa extending southwards from sub-Saharan Africa into Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe; and
The Amazon Basin in South America.
There are hotspots too in North America over the eastern seaboard and in Europe; but winter precipitation tends to remove them and reduce their impact.
Sunday, 16 November 2008
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