The dust has settled and people have had a chance to
consider the whole economic situation.
------------------------------------------------------
For those not getting graphics - - -
Conservative---45%- - =+3%
Labour ---------30% - =-1%
Liberal Dmcrts 18% - = -1%
Others------ ------ 7% - = -1%
xxxxxxxxxx cs
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For those not getting graphics - - -
Conservative-
Labour ---------30% - =-1%
Liberal Dmcrts 18% - = -1%
Others------
xxxxxxxxxx cs
============
+CONSERVATIVE HOME Blog
ICM: Tories up to 45% and 15% ahead
=========================
GUARDIAN 28.11.08
Tories extend poll lead amid pre-budget report doubt
Guardian/ICM poll shows Conservatives have extended lead over Labour
to 15 points, making a spring election doubtful

Voters have given this week's pre-budget report a cold reception,
according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today, with the
Conservatives extending their lead over Labour to 15 points, amid
scepticism about whether Alistair Darling's measures will work.
The poll may end talk of a Brown bounce and a possible spring
election. It was carried out after the chancellor's statement but
before Thursday's arrest of the Conservative frontbencher Damian Green.
The figures show that while people pick Labour over the Conservatives
as the best party to manage the economy and are even marginally more
confident about their personal financial situation, the Tories have
nonetheless leapt back into an election-winning lead.
There is strong opposition to more borrowing and tax rises, although
narrow support overall for the chancellor's measures.
Conservative support has climbed to 45%, up three on both last
month's Guardian/ICM poll and a more recent ICM poll last weekend.
Labour support, at 30%, is the same as last month's Guardian poll and
down one on last weekend.
Today's Tory score is an ICM high point, reached twice last summer
but never passed. The 15-point Tory lead is also the biggest from any
polling company for over a month.
Backing for the Liberal Democrats, at 18%, is three points down on
last month's Guardian/ICM poll and one point down on the weekend.
Backing for other parties is up one to eight.
Labour support has risen slightly since the summer, when it was
regularly below 30%, but on today's figures the party would still
lose heavily at an immediate general election.
Predictions are unreliable, but the Conservatives could expect to win
some 380 seats, enough for a comfortable majority. Labour would win
around 210 seats, 140 fewer than it holds today.
Detailed analysis shows the Conservatives are picking up support
almost equally from Labour and the LibDem: 14% of people who backed
Labour in 2005, and 22% of past LibDems, say they have switched.
However there is also comfort for the government. Overall, more
people approve of the plans announced by Darling, 50%, than
disapprove, 41%.
Labour has also extended its lead as the party with the best economic
team: 46% of voters back Gordon Brown and Darling, an 11-point
increase on their October score.
In March 2008 40% of voters picked the Tory lineup and only 32% Brown
and Darling.
But support for David Cameron and George Osborne, at 37%, is also up
1%. Opinion has hardened as a result of the crisis, with fewer people
naming neither party.
Another source of hope for Labour comes from the Guardian's regular
question on economic confidence. The proportion of voters who feel
happy about their financial position and ability to keep up with the
cost of living has gone up slightly, from 45% in September to 50% now.
Meanwhile 49% are not confident, down 5%. This shift probably
reflects recent cuts in interest rates and lower inflation, rather
than wider optimism about the country's economic prospects.
However the poll finds strong opposition to specific details of the
chancellor's plans. Only 22% agree with the government's argument
that it is important to boost the economy now, even if it means more
borrowing and taxes later.
Meanwhile 74% agree with the broad thrust of Conservative criticisms,
that it is important to keep borrowing under control so as not to
store up problems.
There is also no sign that the one-year cut in VAT to 15% will prompt
a rush to the high street. Only 5% say they plan to spend more as a
result of the chancellor's measures, while 21% say they will spend
less. Most people, 74%, expect to spend about the same.
Asked, in five years' time, whether they would be better off under a
Tory government or a Labour one, 39% say Conservative and 30% Labour.
Only 54% of people who voted Labour in 2005 now say the party would
be best for them.
In 1996 Labour had a 14-point lead on this question.
Well over half of all voters, 58%, agree that it is time for a change
from a Labour government. Only 35% say continuity is more important.
Almost a third of people who voted Labour in 2005 agree that it is
time for a change.
---------------------------------------
ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,026 adults aged 18+ by telephone
between November 25-26 2008. Interviews were conducted across the
country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all
adults. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding. ICM is a
member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
+CONSERVATIVE HOME Blog
ICM: Tories up to 45% and 15% ahead
============
GUARDIAN 28.11.08
Tories extend poll lead amid pre-budget report doubt
Guardian/ICM poll shows Conservatives have extended lead over Labour
to 15 points, making a spring election doubtful

Voters have given this week's pre-budget report a cold reception,
according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today, with the
Conservatives extending their lead over Labour to 15 points, amid
scepticism about whether Alistair Darling's measures will work.
The poll may end talk of a Brown bounce and a possible spring
election. It was carried out after the chancellor's statement but
before Thursday's arrest of the Conservative frontbencher Damian Green.
The figures show that while people pick Labour over the Conservatives
as the best party to manage the economy and are even marginally more
confident about their personal financial situation, the Tories have
nonetheless leapt back into an election-winning lead.
There is strong opposition to more borrowing and tax rises, although
narrow support overall for the chancellor's measures.
Conservative support has climbed to 45%, up three on both last
month's Guardian/ICM poll and a more recent ICM poll last weekend.
Labour support, at 30%, is the same as last month's Guardian poll and
down one on last weekend.
Today's Tory score is an ICM high point, reached twice last summer
but never passed. The 15-point Tory lead is also the biggest from any
polling company for over a month.
Backing for the Liberal Democrats, at 18%, is three points down on
last month's Guardian/ICM poll and one point down on the weekend.
Backing for other parties is up one to eight.
Labour support has risen slightly since the summer, when it was
regularly below 30%, but on today's figures the party would still
lose heavily at an immediate general election.
Predictions are unreliable, but the Conservatives could expect to win
some 380 seats, enough for a comfortable majority. Labour would win
around 210 seats, 140 fewer than it holds today.
Detailed analysis shows the Conservatives are picking up support
almost equally from Labour and the LibDem: 14% of people who backed
Labour in 2005, and 22% of past LibDems, say they have switched.
However there is also comfort for the government. Overall, more
people approve of the plans announced by Darling, 50%, than
disapprove, 41%.
Labour has also extended its lead as the party with the best economic
team: 46% of voters back Gordon Brown and Darling, an 11-point
increase on their October score.
In March 2008 40% of voters picked the Tory lineup and only 32% Brown
and Darling.
But support for David Cameron and George Osborne, at 37%, is also up
1%. Opinion has hardened as a result of the crisis, with fewer people
naming neither party.
Another source of hope for Labour comes from the Guardian's regular
question on economic confidence. The proportion of voters who feel
happy about their financial position and ability to keep up with the
cost of living has gone up slightly, from 45% in September to 50% now.
Meanwhile 49% are not confident, down 5%. This shift probably
reflects recent cuts in interest rates and lower inflation, rather
than wider optimism about the country's economic prospects.
However the poll finds strong opposition to specific details of the
chancellor's plans. Only 22% agree with the government's argument
that it is important to boost the economy now, even if it means more
borrowing and taxes later.
Meanwhile 74% agree with the broad thrust of Conservative criticisms,
that it is important to keep borrowing under control so as not to
store up problems.
There is also no sign that the one-year cut in VAT to 15% will prompt
a rush to the high street. Only 5% say they plan to spend more as a
result of the chancellor's measures, while 21% say they will spend
less. Most people, 74%, expect to spend about the same.
Asked, in five years' time, whether they would be better off under a
Tory government or a Labour one, 39% say Conservative and 30% Labour.
Only 54% of people who voted Labour in 2005 now say the party would
be best for them.
In 1996 Labour had a 14-point lead on this question.
Well over half of all voters, 58%, agree that it is time for a change
from a Labour government. Only 35% say continuity is more important.
Almost a third of people who voted Labour in 2005 agree that it is
time for a change.
------------
ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,026 adults aged 18+ by telephone
between November 25-26 2008. Interviews were conducted across the
country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all
adults. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding. ICM is a
member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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