[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: The theme in Begin's interviews in all the Hebrew
papers (Haaretz, Maariv, Yediot Ahronot and Makor Rishon) today is that the
talks with the Palestinians and Syrians are doomed to fail.
We have an interesting situation:
On the one hand, Netanyahu declared in the Knesset that under his
leadership, Israel would not negotiate over Jerusalem, that no refugees will
return and that "the Jordan Rift Valley, the Judean Desert and the Golan
Heights will continue to be Israel's eastern security belt."
On the other hand we have this theme that talks are doomed in any case.
Here is the problem: if you think that even Meretz can't cut a deal to
leave the Golan or divide Jerusalem and that interim deals and unilateral
withdrawals are also no longer relevant and you share the views of Meretz on
social-welfare issues then why vote Likud instead of Meretz?
Wouldn't it be smarter for Likud to argue that Kadima's leadership is so
irresponsible that they could cut a crazy deal with Syria and the PLO?]
Let the games Begin
By Yossi Verter Haaretz Last update - 09:03 07/11/2008
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1035115.html
For half a year, since exchanging a few words at the annual memorial
ceremony for Menachem Begin, the late prime minister's son and former
cabinet minister Binyamin Ze'ev Begin waited for a phone call from Likud
leader Benjamin ("Bibi") Netanyahu. But Bibi didn't call. For two years,
Netanyahu dreamed of the moment when Begin would knock on his door and say:
I'm back. But Begin didn't knock. Begin was eager to return to the
decision-making circles, and Netanyahu wanted an experienced player, the
prince of all princes, the man whose name became a synonym for honesty,
integrity and a different politics. But nothing would have happened had it
not been for the intervention of Likud MK Reuven Rivlin, Begin's Jerusalem
neighbor and friend, and a confidant of Netanyahu's. About two weeks ago,
following a conversation with Begin in the staircase, Rivlin called
Netanyahu. "You'll be surprised," he told the skeptical Begin afterward,
"but Bibi wants you more than you want him."
Over last weekend, Rivlin organized two meetings between Netanyahu and Begin
at his home, on Thursday evening and on Saturday evening. Both of them were
suffering from a cold. Nehama Rivlin prepared a hot lemon drink for them.
What happened afterward will probably never become public knowledge. But the
result is known: After nearly 10 full years of total political abstinence,
Begin, now 66, is on his way back to the Likud, the Knesset and the
government, and Netanyahu is gleaming. His hair is gray and he is a bit hard
of hearing, but Begin's 66 years of age are not apparent in his thin,
ascetic body, his energy, his nimble thought or his sharp expression. Is he
still the same right-wing extremist who in 1998 joined the proponent of the
"transfer" idea, Rechavam Ze'evi, and contested the premiership? He says he
hasn't changed, but the fact is that he is returning to the Likud, not to
the National Union.
After leaving politics, he worked for six years as a researcher in the
Geological Institute (Begin is a trained geologist). He did not receive a
salary, because no job opening was found for him. It was not until 2005,
when the institute's director left, that Begin replaced him and started to
receive a regular wage. Yes, it was cold outside, and boring.
Netanyahu is not his cup of tea, never was and never will be. But Netanyahu
is the unavoidable ladder. Begin did not opt for the party that looks as
though it will form the next government with the intention of leaving in a
huff over some future political move by Netanyahu, as he did after Netanyahu
signed the Hebron agreement in January 1997. This time, if he's hit with
some sort of agreement with the Palestinians, he will vote against it,
orate, preach, give interviews, pull out citations from his BlackBerry - but
stay. The second time around he will not be in a hurry to pack.
Bad record
Last Saturday evening, after shaking hands with Netanyahu, Begin called two
senior Likud MKs, Silvan Shalom and Gideon Sa'ar, who were in on the secret
all along, and informed them of his return. "I am coming for one term, which
I hope will be a full one," Begin said, pointing to his silver locks. "At my
age, four years is enough." He has no intention of competing for the party
leadership after Netanyahu.
In an interview he gave on Tuesday evening, after his joint press conference
with Netanyahu at Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv, Begin could hardly conceal
his delight. "I want to help the Likud become a big party, with 40 seats, so
we will have governmental stability," he said. "I know people say I am on
the hallucinatory right, but this time it won't stick, because I was right
twice: the first time about the Oslo Accords, and also about the
disengagement from Gaza. And if I say today that there is no prospect of
peace with the Palestinians in the years ahead, that is not extremist. A
Nobel laureate, who was one of the architects of the Oslo Accords, Mr.
[Shimon] Peres, says the same, and my friends on the left are not preaching
for a unilateral withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from Judea and
Samaria."
As far as Begin is concerned, there is nothing to talk to the Palestinians
about in the immediate years ahead. A dialogue is possible on environmental
issues, water, sewerage, and that's about all. "We have learned that the
rest of the issues produce nothing. Nada. Zilch." Aren't you concerned that
diplomatic deadlock will lead to a new intifada?
Begin: "They, not we, are the cause of the deadlock. Why should we assume
the guilt that resides with the other side? We will try to work out
day-to-day relations."
Maybe we can talk to the Palestinians about an interim agreement, if not a
final-status settlement?
"The era of interim agreements is over. From the Arabs' point of view, it is
all or nothing."
What is your opinion of Netanyahu's plan for an "economic peace"?
"I don't know the details, I don't know what it is all about. If it is
possible to promote social welfare or reduce the distress in Samaria without
infringing on security, I am all in favor."
Begin says he is returning to politics in order to stop Kadima and its
leaders, Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz, from coming to power. "We saw where
the policy of Kadima and Livni led: first the disengagement and then
Resolution 1701 [passed by the UN Security Council after the Second Lebanon
War]. Today even Livni understands that this resolution is not preventing
Hezbollah from rearming. I saw that back then, just as I warned against
leaving Gaza. Mofaz, who was then the defense minister, said in 2005 that
Israel's security situation would improve after the disengagement. I, who
had no access to classified material, said the opposite of this former chief
of staff and then-defense minister, who operated in the service of a
particular government. What nonsense!"
It is with this record, Begin says, that Livni and Mofaz must now solicit
the public's support. "It is a bad record. Livni has limited experience,
none of it good. I heard her this week, saying something unclear about
negotiations with the Syrians during the period of the caretaker government.
She says what her team [of advisers] tells her to say. It's all spin, all
air and wind."
That said, Begin does not rule out the possibility of the Likud joining a
government under Livni if Kadima wins the election. "It depends on the basic
guidelines," he says, declaiming the oldest political sentence in the world.
"After the election, we will have to establish as broad-based a government
as possible. When I say broad-based, I am referring to principles, and not
just to its being headed by the Likud."
Are you sure that Netanyahu will be able to withstand U.S. pressure to make
headway in the negotiations with the Palestinians or the Syrians?
"Why don't you ask if Kadima will withstand the pressure of the
administration to return refugees to Israel or to divide Jerusalem?"
Are you confident that Netanyahu will be able to withstand the pressure?
"I am confident that he will. No U.S. administration will impose a
settlement, because an imposed settlement will not hold. I heard Bibi's
statement at the opening of the Knesset's winter session. With a speech like
that I have no problem joining the government." (In the speech, which, it
later turned out, was aimed in part at Begin ahead of his return, Netanyahu
declared that under his leadership, Israel would not negotiate over
Jerusalem, that no refugees will return and that "the Jordan Rift Valley,
the Judean Desert and the Golan Heights will continue to be Israel's eastern
security belt.")
Begin is empathetic toward his good friend Ehud Olmert, whom he supported
for the Likud leadership in the 1993 primary. "I regret very much what
happened to him. I met with him twice in the past two years in my
professional capacity, for technical discussions about earthquakes and the
National Water Carrier. The discussions, which he initiated, were
professional, serious, lengthy and thorough. He was attentive and listened
patiently. The meetings were never made public. I was very impressed by his
approach - it was not something he was obliged to do."
According to Begin, Olmert was judged by the media and the public. "He was
prejudged, even before he was able to respond to the charges. Ask anyone on
the street and he will tell you that Olmert did so-and-so. I am not saying
that the situation is not serious, but professionally and morally, it is
wrong for people to be treated like this in an orderly country and society.
You know, he might be exonerated - it wouldn't be the first time here."
The testimony by U.S. businessman Morris Talansky, even if it was essential
in the opinion of the State Prosecutor's Office - "and I am not arguing with
that" - was, Begin says, "a mortal blow to him from the public standpoint.
It was a three-day monologue, without a cross-examination."
His tone is also compassionate regarding the Labor Party. "I am very
saddened about what is happening to Labor. A party with a tradition like
that must not deteriorate to the position it is in today, or to the position
the polls are predicting. Labor was a ruling party for many years. They knew
how to get things done and they did great things, and now their strength has
been so debilitated in the face of something that one can't even grasp
[referring to Kadima]. It's a shame."
Retro campaign
Politicians are a breed apart. It doesn't matter how much they revile and
curse one another. After a while they will wipe the spit off their faces and
join hands, as long as it serves them. That is what makes it possible for
Begin to unite with Netanyahu, and also opens that possibility for Dan
Meridor and David Levy.
This is going to be a retro campaign. All the retirees are shaking the dust
off their jackets and jumping on the bandwagon. Even Nahman Shai, who had
his 15 minutes of fame 17 years ago, as the IDF Spokesman during the Gulf
War, suddenly turned up in Kadima this week. Livni, who did not want Shai as
ambassador to the UN, will now accept him, if he is elected, as a
backbencher in the 18th Knesset. She once offered the post of ambassador to
Egypt to the Arab affairs correspondent Ehud Yaari, and the post of UN
ambassador to the media personality Ilana Dayan, but Nahman Shai, who took
part in the reality program "The Ambassador," will be an MK. Maybe.
More important for Livni is the agreement she reached on Wednesday with
Mofaz, whom she narrowly defeated in the party primary in September. She
promised him that he will be her number two and the "senior minister" in any
government she forms. With this she bought herself essential quiet for the
three months of the campaign. Mofaz declined an offer to become her campaign
manager. He cited "lack of professional experience," but his supporters
believe that Mofaz deliberately wants to keep his distance from Livni, so
that if she loses, he will be able to work for her immediate ouster as party
leader. He will do it the same way she tried to remove Olmert, by declaring
an early primary.
"I would have won," Mofaz will say after the debacle, "and I would have been
able to form a new government in the outgoing Knesset and thereby prevent
elections. Tzipi, you failed in both. Move over." And there are those who
suspect that even as he sets in motion the internal procedure in Kadima to
dump Livni, he will offer Kadima to Netanyahu in return for his appointment
as minister of defense.