Harold Hoffman Weekly News Review.
Is America facing an even greater threat to its economy than the meltdown of its banking system?
We've been telling you this for years...Wake Up America! Wake up U.K.!
David Walker, the former Comptroller General of the United States believes that his country is about to drown in an ocean of debt. He's so concerned that he quit his job to raise public awareness on the issue.
He believes his message to be the financial equivalent of former president Al Gore's warning about the environment,
An Inconvenient Truth.
The statistics are staggering, with the US Government debt running at more than ten trillion dollars and set to rise and rise unless policy changes.
And with many people urging new President Barack Obama to spend his way out of recession, it may be that the underlying weakness of the American economy can only get worse.
HH comment:What we have been saying for years!!!!! note the date
That is the conclusion of a recent Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial The United States is Insolvent goldseek --
Posted Tuesday, 19 December 2006 Article
Prepare to be shocked. The US is insolvent.
There is simply no way for our national bills to be paid under current levels of taxation and promised benefits. Our combined federal deficits now total more than 400% of GDP.
That is the conclusion of a recent Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial Report of the United States Government that was quietly slipped out on a Friday (12/15/06), deep in the holiday season, with little fanfare.
Sometimes I wonder why the Treasury Department doesnt just pay somebody to come in at 4:30 am Christmas morning to release the report.
Additionally, Ive yet to read a single account of this report in any of the major news media outlets but that is another matter. But, hey, I understand. A report is this bad requires all the muffling it can get.
In his accompanying statement to the report, David Walker, Comptroller of the US, warmed up his audience by stating that the GAO had found so many significant material deficiencies in the governments accounting systems that the GAO was “unable to express an opinion on the financial statements.
Ha ha! He really knows how to play an audience!
In accounting parlance, thats the same as telling your spouse
Our checkbook is such an out of control mess I cant tell if were broke or rich!
The next time you have an unexplained rash of checking withdrawals from that fishing trip with your buddies, just tell her that you are unable to express an opinion and see how that flies. Let us know how it goes! Then Walker went on to deliver the really bad news:
Despite improvement in both the fiscal year 2006 reported net operating cost and the cash-based budget deficit, the U.S. governments total reported liabilities, net social insurance commitments, and other fiscal exposures continue to grow and now total approximately $50 trillion, representing approximately four times the Nations total output (GDP) in fiscal year 2006, up from about $20 trillion, or two times GDP in fiscal year 2000. As this long-term fiscal imbalance continues to grow, the retirement of the baby boom generation is closer to becoming a reality with the first wave of boomers eligible for early retirement under Social Security in 2008.
Given these and other factors, it seems clear that the nations current fiscal path is unsustainable and that tough choices by the President and the Congress are necessary in order to address the nations large and growing long-term fiscal imbalance.
Wow! I know David Walkers been vocal lately about his concern over our economic future but it seems almost impossible to ignore the implications of his statements above. From $20 trillion in fiscal exposures in 2000 to over $50 trillion in only six years?
What shall we do for an encore ¦shoot for $100 trillion?
And how about the fact that boomers begin retiring in 2008 ¦that always seemed to be way out in the future. However, beginning January 1st we can start referring to 2008 as next year instead of Ëœsome point in the future too distant to get concerned about now. Our economic problems need to be classified as growing, imminent, and unsustainable. And let me clarify something. The $53 trillion shortfall is expressed as a net present value. That means that in order to make the shortfall disappear we'd have to have that amount of cash in the bank today - earning interest (the GAO uses 5.7% & 5.8% as the assumed long-term rate of return). Ill say it again - $53 trillion, in the bank, today.
Heck, I dont even know how much a trillion is let alone fifty-three of . And next year we'd have to put even more into this mythical interest bearing account simply because we didnt collect any interest on money we didnt put in the bank account this year. For the record, 5.7% on $53 trillion is a bit more than $3 trillion dollars so you can see how the math is working against us here.
This means the deficit will swell by at least another $3 trillion plus whatever other shortfalls the government can rack up in the meantime. So call it another $4 trillion as an early guess for next year.
Given how studiously our nation is avoiding this topic both in the major media outlets and during our last election cycle, I sometimes feel as if I live in a small mountain town that has decided to ignore an avalanche that has already let loose above in favor of holding the annual kindergarten ski sale.
The Treasury department soft-pedaled the whole unsustainable gigantic deficit thingy in last years report but they have taken a quite different approach this year. From page 10 of the report: The net social insurance responsibilities scheduled benefits in excess of estimated revenues) indicate that those programs are on an unsustainable fiscal path and difficult choices will be necessary in order to address their large and growing long-term fiscal imbalance.
Delay is costly and choices will be more difficult as the retirement of the Baby boom gets closer to becoming a reality with the first wave of boomers eligible for retirement under Social Security in 2008 I dont know how that could be any clearer.
The US Treasury department has issued a public report warning that we are on an unsustainable path and that we face difficult choices that will only become more costly the longer we delay. Perhaps the reason US bonds and the dollar have held up so well is that we are far from alone in our predicament. In a recent article detailing why the UK Pound Sterling may fall, we read this horrifying evidence: Officially, [UK] public sector net debt stands at £486.7bn.
That's equal to US$953.9bn and represents a little under 38% of annual GDP.
Add the state's "off balance sheet" debt, however including its pension promises to state-paid employees and the total shoots nearly three times higher. Research by the Centre for Policy Studies in London says it would put UK government deficits at a staggering 103% of GDP.
If we perform the same calculations for the US, however, we find that the official debt stands at $8.507 trillion or 65% of (nominal) GDP but when we add in our “off balance sheet items the national debt stands at $53 trillion or 403% of GDP. Now thats horrifying. Staggering.
Whatever you wish to call it. More than four hundred percent of GDP(!).
And thats just at the federal level. We could easily make this story a bit more ominous by including state, municipal and corporate shortfalls.
But lets not do that. Here's what the federal shortfall means in the simplest terms.
1) There is no way to grow out of this problem. What really jumps out is that the US financial position has deteriorated by over $22 trillion in only 4 years and $4.5 trillion in the last 12 months (see table below, from page 10 of the report). The problem did not get better as a result of the excellent economic growth over the past 3 years but rather got worse and is apparently accelerating to the downside. Any economic weakness will only exacerbate the problem. You should be aware that the budgetary assumptions of the US government are for greater than 5% nominal GDP growth through at least 2011.
In other words, because no economic weakness is included in the deficit projections below, $53 trillion could be on the low side. Further, none of the long-term costs associated with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars are factored in any of the numbers presented (thought to be upwards of $2 trillion more).
2) The future will be defined by lowered standards of living. As Lawrence Kotlikoff pointed out in his paper titled Is the US Bankrupt? posted to the St. Louis Federal Reserve website, the insolvency of the US will minimally require some combination of lowered entitlement payouts and higher taxes. Both of those represent less money in the taxpayers pockets and, last time I checked, less money meant a lower standard of living.
3) Every government facing this position has opted to “print its way out of trouble. Thats an historical fact and our country shows no indications, unfortunately, of possessing the unique brand of political courage required to take a different route. In the simplest terms this means you & I will face a future of uncomfortably high inflation, possibly hyperinflation if the US dollar loses its reserve currency status somewhere along the way.
Of course, it is impossible to print our way out of this particular pickle because printing money is inflationary and therefore a hidden tax on everyone. Consider, whats the difference between having half of your money directly taken (taxed) by the government and having half of its value disappear due to inflation? Nothing. Except that the former is political suicide while the latter is conveniently never discussed by the US financial mainstream press (for some reason) and therefore goes undetected by a majority of people as the thoroughly predictable outcome of deficit spending.
All printing can realistically accomplish is the preservation of some DC jobs and the decimation of the middle and lower classes. In summary, I am wondering how long we can pretend this problem does not exist. How long can we continue to buy stocks and flip houses, forget to save, pile up debt, import Chinese made goods, and export debt? Are these useful activities to perform while theres an economic avalanche bearing down upon us? Unfortunately, I am not smart enough to know the answer.
I only know that hoping a significant and mounting problem will go away is not a winning strategy.
I know that we, as a nation, owe it to ourselves to have the hard conversation about our financial future sooner rather than later. And I suspect that conversation will have to begin right here, between you and me because I cannot detect even the faintest glimmer that our current crop of leaders can distinguish between urgent and expedient.
What we need is a good, old-fashioned grassroots campaign. In the meantime, I simply do not know of any way to fully protect oneself against the economic ravages resulting from poorly managed monetary and fiscal institutions.
For what it's worth, I am heavily invested in gold and silver and will remain that way until the aforementioned institutions choose to confront what is rather than whats expedient. This could be a very long-term investment. Are you shocked? All the best.
Chris
All rights reserved, Copyright, 2006 Dr. Chris Martenson -- Posted Tuesday, 19 December 2006 |Print | Disclaimer Commentary : Gold Stock Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - ain Page 1995 - 2006 GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC
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Reminder of our posting 1-2 years ago regarding 'The Financial Storm'. No one listened then... but who is laughing now? FED CHAIRMAN: DELUSIONAL OR DECEPTIVE? FED CHAIRMAN: DELUSIONAL OR DECEPTIVE? By: Devvy July 20, 2007 © 2007 - NewsWithViews.com "If we run into such [government] debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses, and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes, have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-suffers." Thomas Jefferson On June 20, 2007, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered a stinking canard when he told Congress that the global economy was "stronger than any time in the past two decades.
" Experts not on the government's payroll say otherwise.
Paulson shrugs off such concerns. In the meantime, the dollar has been dropping almost as fast as Bush and Congress' poll numbers.
On July 17, 2007, oil hit a high of $75.00 per barrel.
The dollar is continuing to tank. Congress continues to write hot checks every single day they're in session.
The lunatic in the White House is spending -aided and abetted by the U.S. Congress -
a whopping $12 BILLION borrowed dollars per month for this immoral, unconstitutional invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan.
There's no money in the people's treasury.
Congress has written just under $9 TRILLION dollars worth of hot checks (as of 7.18.07: $8,888,522,656,747.96.)
David Walker, Comptroller General of the U.S. was on a Sunday cable talking head show two weeks ago continuing his effort to try and awaken the indifferent, self-absorbed tens of millions out there about what's coming next year when that first wave of baby boomers retire and the financial tsunami hits over social security, Medicare and the cost of Bush's endless wars for peace based on lies. Walker has been doing his best, but most Americans don't want the truth, they want warm, fuzzy assurances.
They want the newest in electronic gadgetry made by slave labor in communist China and play time while the clock is ticking.
How about 'Helicopter' Ben Bernake, Federal Reserve Chairman and his take on the economy?
February 12, 2007: WASHINGTON: "When Ben Bernake testifies before the new Democratic majorities of the U.S. Congress this week, it may be hard to tell that he and his questioners are talking about the same economy.
Bernake, the Federal Reserve chairman, will use his semiannual appearances before the banking panels of the Senate and the House of Representatives to describe a healthy economy and a strong job market.
Democrats like Representative Paul Hodes of New Hampshire will paint a much different picture of stagnant incomes and jobs lost to foreign competition. Sherrod Brown, a newly elected Democratic senator from Ohio who serves on the banking committee, said, "While the economy is good for people at the top, it's not so good for a steelworker in Lorain, Ohio, or a small-business owner in Dayton".
Representative Charles Wilson, another newly elected Democrat from Ohio and a member of the financial services panel, said that "people in my district, when they pick up the paper, they aren't checking their stock holdings.
They're checking the help-wanted ads." July 18, 2007: US weathering housing slump; inflation still biggest risk: "WASHINGTON (AFP) -
The US economy is slowly emerging from a worse-than-expected housing slump but will manage to post "moderate" growth in 2007 and 2008, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernake said Wednesday....The central bank cut its forecast for 2007 growth to a range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent, down from a 2.5 to 3.0 percent range in the Fed's outlook in February....Addressing the troubles of subprime mortgage loans hit by rising defaults and foreclosures, Bernake said this has led to "personal, economic and social distress" for many homeowners and communities and that these problems "likely will get worse before they get better."
While Bernake diddles around reassuring everyone that the road to economic prosperity is just around the corner, with a few bumps that will never affect him, what's really happening out there?
Bear Stearns Says Hedge Fund Worthless: NEW YORK "Bear Stearns Cos. told clients Tuesday that a meltdown in the subprime mortgage market has made the assets from two of its flagship hedge funds almost worthless.
Both funds were squeezed after Bear Stearns made wrong-way bets on the home mortgage market and was caught as loans to risky investors began to default.
The assets in one of the funds are essentially worthless, while another is worth 9 percent of its value at the end of April, according to a document obtained by The Associated Press.
Bear Stearns, the nation's fifth-largest investment bank, began disclosing in March that the two hedge funds had sustained heavy losses tied to subprime loans extended to risky borrowers.
At the time, its High-Grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund was worth about $638 million _ and now has no value.
Meanwhile, the larger and less-leveraged High-Grade Structured Credit Fund lost 91 percent of its value.
It was worth about $925 million before taking on losses in March." July 10, 2007: US mortgages Easy money hits home with lenders facing £250bn losses."
The collapse in sub-prime loans threatens the big banks that financed brokers While the crisis in the loans market has had devastating effects in many US households, it now risks reverberating throughout the financial system.....Many of the low-grade loans are believed to be held by US lenders caught up in the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. Some of the world's biggest banks supported the loans sold by Mr. Sadek and other brokers.
Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and JP Morgan Chase in the US and HSBC and Barclays are just some of the lenders sitting on huge losses.
A report by analysts at Lombard Street Research has estimated that the crisis could knock a hole in the banks' assets of up to £250bn.
Few banks have so far assessed the extent of their losses, but they could soon be forced to address this issue." May 16, 2007: LEAP/E2020 Alert
The US economy went into recession in the first quarter of 2007: "Thus, as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 in February 2007, the month of April 2007 marks the tipping point of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis, and signals the objective entry of the US into recession, even though official US figures are still trying to conceal the trend.
Besides, in relation to this fundamental piece of information, April 2007 was also a turning point on a number of key-factors of the global systemic crisis whose evolution will experience a new acceleration.
In this month's issue of GEAB, LEAP/E2020 enters into the details of the two following analyses: - Aggravation of the US consumer's insolvency, profit reduction for companies depending on the US market and massive layoffs contribute to a negative retroactive loop -
Acceleration of dollar collapse, imported inflation, increase in balance of payment deficit and trade tensions with Asia and Europe smash the Fed's consensus and thrust the US into the very great depression.
July 19, 2007.
How to spoil a good party.
"Mr. Turk says central banks almost daily talk about diversifying away from the dollar or creating their own currency zones.
In a recent interview with a Russian journalist, the journalist said even Russians, which have long coveted greenbacks, are now beginning to question the supremacy of the U.S. dollar. Investors, too, are beginning to shun it, with none other than Warren Buffett leading the pack.
"Look, too, at the stock market," he says. "The stock market is not going up because of economic fundamentals.
People would rather own a million dollars of Exxon than have a million dollars in the bank.
It's also true people would own a million dollars of copper than have a million dollars sitting in the bank.
All these things cumulatively are suggesting to me we are probably on the final slippery slope for the dollar.
I do think the next several months are going to be very, very tumultuous.
"We're buying from China," he says.
"They're lending us back the money.
It's unsustainable.
It cannot go on forever because we're eroding our net worth. Just like individuals can have too much debt, companies can have too much debt, nations can have too much debt." July 5, 2007: American dream sours as housing market collapses.
"For Cathy Busby, May 1 marked a personal "Mayday!" as she was sucked into the housing crisis sweeping the United States.
On Tuesday, she went into arrears on her mortgage after her monthly repayments soared by 40 per cent.
The 47-year-old hospital administrator will lose the three-bedroom home in the Denver suburb of Montebello that she bought 11 years ago, unless she can reach a deal with her lender.
Cathy Busby is unable to meet the repayments on her home of 11 years after interest rates rocketed by 40 per cent.
"I raised my sons here and I planted these aspens and landscaped this garden.
It's a terrible thought that I could lose it all," she said on the first day that she failed to pay her interest-only -mortgage.
Miss Busby is far from alone: the American dream of home ownership is turning sour for many.
Up to two million people with so-called subprime, or high risk, -mortgages have already had their homes repossessed, or will default on their loans in the coming months, according to industry estimates.
Such houses are generally sold at auction, for less than the full market price.
Home owners' losses will total an estimated $164 billion (£82 billion), according to the Centre for Responsible Lending, an independent research group." June 23, 2007. International Forecaster: "Now for the classic: Mr. Bernake said he did not know whether the so-called “financial accelerator effect on household spending via access to credit was big enough to affect the overall economy.
Of course he knows.
Any college freshman knows. If equity is falling and interest rates are rising and lending standards are tightened less equity and cash out loans will be made.
Those loans have already fallen more than 50% over the last 1-1/2 years, and that means some $300 billion is no longer available to fuel the economy.
This is the money the public used over the past four years to continue their lifestyles and spending sprees, because their wages and salaries did not come anywhere near covering the increases in inflation, which our government tells us is 2.4%.
As a result of free trade, globalization, off shoring and outsourcing have produced productivity gains of only 0.6%, while higher interest rates erode and reduce the value of personal and corporate assets and cash flows.
Ben gets it be just doesn't want you to know the economy is in serious trouble and it is going to get much worse.
" If you want to understand more about the national debt or, how the money power took control of this country, I recommend reading The Coming Battle which was first published in 1899. May 9, 2007.
The New World Disorder: Goodbye U.S. dollar, hello global currency. CFR chief: Monetary nationalism, sovereignty should be abandoned.
"The director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations has launched a scathing attack on sovereignty and national currencies...Steil's essay is antagonistic to the ideas of sovereignty and national currencies.
He writes, "The right course is not to return to a mythical past of monetary sovereignty, with governments controlling local interest and exchange rates in blissful ignorance of the rest of the world.
Governments must let go of the fatal notion that nationhood requires them to make and control the money used in their territory.
" July 18, 2007. Metals - Gold rallies on Bernake's US sub-prime concerns for US economy.
"LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gold rallied after the dollar weakened when Fed Chairman Ben Bernake highlighted the dangers of the sub-prime fallout to the US economy in his semi-annual testimony to Congress.
Gold tends to move counter to the dollar, as it is seen as an alternative asset to the world's most common currency reserve....Some analysts believe gold is asserting its position as a wealth guarantor in times of market volatility, following Bear Stearn's announcement that two of their stressed hedge funds are now essentially worthless after investing heavily in the US sub-prime market.
" When people don't spend, the economy goes flat.
Our economy is based on debt and debt is NOT prosperity.
The congressionally created national debt currently means that every household in America owes the privately owned "Federal" Reserve banking system $516,348 and that number will continue to grow.
For what? Endless wars based on a mountain of lies from Bush, his cabinet and members of Congress.
Foreign welfare, the raiding of the people's treasury with ZERO authority from the U.S. Constitution to enrich foreign countries, potentates and dictators alike, and to to fund wars between countries thousands of miles from U.S. soil.
The savings rate in this country is in the minus column, millions are living paycheck to paycheck.
As the cost of food and energy rises, the less disposable income people have to spend into the economy.
The more foreign made products Americans purchase, the trade imbalance increases and Americans continue to lose ground for good paying productive jobs.
What does this mean for Americans?
When you factor in the death trap Congress has snared the American people into with these devastating and unconstitutional trade treaties, anti-American companies outsourcing the best jobs, stealing via withholding taxes, the federal income tax rip off, the plans underway to erase the U.S. and merge us with Canada and Mexico and the coming financial tsunami when that first wave of baby boomers hits next year, look forward to at least three if not four paychecks needed to support your household.
Let's also not forget the oil/energy situation and if anyone thinks they will ever see $2.00/per gallon gas again.
And, yes, I am fully aware of Lindsey Williams' work, The Non-Energy Crisis. After my last column on America's gold reserves, I received a couple of e-mails from individuals who told me I was stupid, ignorant and didn't have a clue about our monetary system.
They are supporters of Richard C. Cook's convoluted and unworkable solution to the central bank and his desire to get back to FDR's communist New Deal.
Of course I'm stupid and everyone else is a genius! Where on earth do I get my understanding of our monetary system, fiat currency and reform?
Back in 1991 when I first came upon the claim that the Federal Reserve Banking System was a privately owned cartel, I began my research.
I gave up my career and studied and studied - for years as I began my activism.
I read everything I could get my hands on by Dr. Edwin Vieira. I've read all his books, Pieces of Eight, CrashMaker, How to Dethrone the Imperial Judiciary and Constitutional Homeland Security: A Call for Americans to Revitalize the Militia of the Several States. Volume I, The Nation in Arms.
I studied the writings of monetary scholars from the Von Mises Institute and dozens of books by those who are far more intelligent than I am on this issue; see my Reading Room.
Click here for this section in particular which has a load of congressional record and state archives documents that are of great historical importance.
One e-mailer sent the usual snotty and childish text telling me I work real hard at selling gold. I don't sell gold. I'm not a precious metals dealer, retailer or anything else.
I know what's coming because you can only put so much air in a bubble before to bursts.
I feel so bad for Americans who really don't realize just how dangerous and unstable the situation really is.
That's why I recommend El Dorado Gold if people are looking to protect their assets. Americans can't even get access to their own money, i.e., 401(k) accounts without the government stealing from them in the form of penalties!
How anyone can say they're free in this country when a corrupt government has allowed a private cartel to control the fruits of your labor and doom all of us to poverty, is beyond me.
For those who think Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson (member of the treasonous CFR), Rudy Julie-Annie or Mitt Romney are going to save their bacon, they are making a big mistake.
None of these candidates are making any effort to warn the American people. In the case of Obama and Rudy, I doubt they even have a clue regarding the central bank and the danger of a fiat currency.
Obama is stuck on free abortions and sex education for kindergartners, while Rudy busy is fending off the attack from the firefighters in NYC who are blowing the whistle on Giuliani's incompetence re 911.
The bells will toll because Congress continues to turn a blind eye to the seriousness of the overall situation, but they waste time on stupid and unnecessary legislation while America burns.
("Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that there should be established a National Letter Carriers Appreciation Day." (Introduced in House) [H.RES.49.IH].
In two weeks Congress will AGAIN head for another vacation while the clock ticks.
Survival is the name of the game and I hope folks will take the time to sit down and assess their individual situation.
Get out of debt if you can; assist elderly parents who need help. Prepare for the worst because FED Chairman Ben Bernake, is either delusional or he's being deliberately deceptive. Important Information: 1, A Primer on Money by Congressman Wright Patman 2, Globalists admit: U.S. workers suffering 3, A Caveat Against Injustice, a short treatise written in 1752 by Roger Sherman, author of Art. 1, § 10, cl. 1, of the U.S. Constitution 4, William Gouge, Advisor to President Andy Jackson on Principles of the Banking System (1833) 5, The Shearing is Nearing by Dr. Edwin Vieira 6, Congressman McFadden's Speech On the Federal Reserve Corporation 7, Reject Globalism: Buy Made in America by Americans 2007 - NewsWithViews.com - All Rights Reserved Sign Up For Free E-Mail Alerts E-Mails are used strictly for NWVs alerts, not for sale -
Devvy Kidd authored the booklets,
Why A Bankrupt America and Blind Loyalty; 2 million copies sold. Devvy appears on radio shows all over the country, ran for Congress and is a highly sought after public speaker. Devvy belongs to no organization. She left the Republican Party in 1996 and has been an independent voter ever since. Devvy isn't left, right or in the middle; she is a constitutionalist who believes in the supreme law of the land, not some political party.
Her web site (www.devvy.com) contains a tremendous amount of information, solutions and a vast Reading Room.
Devvy's website: www.devvy.com Before you send Devvy e-mail, please take the time to check the FAQ section on her web site. It is filled with answers to frequently asked questions and links to reliable research sources. E-mail is: devvyk@earthlink.net
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