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NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 03 NOVEMBER 2008
Monthly reports on finance, business, trade,
economics, & political analysis
NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 03 NOVEMBER 2008
ON THE BRINK!
With the US Presidential Election on Tuesday 4th November and the financial meltdown each day producing new, mostly bad news, it is fair to say that we are on the brink. Perhaps of better times, if the world can welcome a man into the White House of the stature necessary to measure up to the size of the problems. We will know soon enough. We have something to say about this, as we do about the financial crisis that is clearly going to colour geopolitics, for a very long time.
The full measure of what has happened does not seem to have fully penetrated, but we assert that the ideology of capitalist laissez-faire economics has failed - at an immense cost, and in its way this is comparable to the failure and collapse of communist ideology in 1991. Capitalism as we have known it lies broken. The next president has to lead the way into fixing it - which means finding a better way internationally.
But geopolitics does not stop either for financial melt-downs, nor the change of leadership in the world's most powerful country.
Senator Joe Biden forecast that Barack Obama as new president would within six months have to deal with a horrendous international political crisis. He did not clarify where or what and his prediction was squeezed out and lost in the hurricane of US domestic speculation, over the last days of the campaigns.
We rise to the challenge and review the possibilities suggested by
'The Biden Crisis'.
'The Biden Crisis'.
PAKISTAN has taken another downward spiral since last month and looks perilously like an oncoming failed state. But so does AFGHANISTAN!
These two are intertwined and it is interesting and helpful that SAUDI ARABIA is attempting in both countries to broker a political deal with the Islamic fundamentalists - so far without success. SAUDI also is opening its money-bags on behalf of assisting near basket-case nations. It is earning itself recognition as a leader, not only in its region but in the leading councils of the world.
UKRAINE like PAKISTAN looks like a failed state, but in both cases the IMF will apply band-aid, which may be good for months, but really longer-term solutions are needed soon - and they are not obvious!
ISRAEL and the middle-east peace process is on the brink! An election is forthcoming which if Netanyahu wins will move the peace process back to before the Oslo accords. If Tzipi Livni comes out in front, the peace process could go charging ahead.
GOOD NEWS from TURKMENISTAN! Massive quantities of natural gas have been discovered. The big problem for the EU is how to get it to Europe skirting RUSSIA, when only the corridor through GEORGIA is currently possible?
We propose our New Nations solution to the GEORGIA problem in this context, since it is highly unlikely that they will be allowed into NATO. We also look at the increasing evidence that the White House and David Milliband, the UK's Foreign Secretary, misrepresented the Russian incursion into GEORGIA, whilst the US State Department took a more measured position.
IRAQ: the non-victory and non-agreement are reviewed.
NORTH KOREA could at any time fulfil the Biden prophecy. We comprehensively report.
A long and steady look at RUSSIA in this issue, both good news and bad which is also uniquely Russian. Only RUSSIA has deployed state funds to bail out its overstretched oligarchs, most of whom stole their core businesses with official connivance, on the break-up of the state-owned industries in the 1990's.
AZERBAIJAN re-elected their president in the usual dismal post-soviet way, with minimal world interest, although this is a huge player in the Caspian oil and gas world.
TURKEY could go politically sour with a massive court case involving large numbers of plotters, including four generals, accused of seeking to violently overthrow the state.
As Warren Buffet is alleged to have said, "Beware of Geeks bearing formulas." Just how many trillion USD has this financial market engineering cost? We take a look.
For our next issue in December the big decision will have been taken and we will be into somebody's "first hundred days."
It has every likelihood of representing a new epoch!
It has every likelihood of representing a new epoch!
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