Connect the dots....folks!Has this happened by way ofIgnorance, Bias or Neglect, in the way of acts of commission and ommission?They know what they are doing.......They have hundreds of advisors......Remember, 1972...Heath and the E.E.C.Was that Ignorance, Bias or Neglect, in the way of acts of commission and ommission?So why not now?If they can deliberately destroy the U.K, in 1972, and all that means,Collapsing the currencies of the dollar and the poundIs EASY.===========The rest of the world is not having an easy ride either.
Today we learn that "The US economy continues to contract with the number of
people claiming unemployment long-term benefit hitting a 25-year-high
and the US trade deficit narrowing as a result of the slowdown."
But German complacency and inertia has made things much worse!
Our problem here is that we start from a worse position,
people claiming unemployment long-term benefit hitting a 25-year-high
and the US trade deficit narrowing as a result of the slowdown."
But German complacency and inertia has made things much worse!
Our problem here is that we start from a worse position,
Brown having put us into deficit financing during the good years. We have
no 'fat' in the system to fall back on as Brown prepares to up
borrowing, the very policy which makes our position so particularly
precarious.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx cs
===========================
TELEGRAPH Business News 14.11.08
1. Europe is in recession after bank meltdown
Europe has fallen into its first recession in 15 years, after the
global banking crisis and a decline in exports brought growth to a
shuddering halt.
By Amy Wilson
The Eurozone economy - made up of the 15 countries that use the euro
- contracted by 0.2pc in the third quarter. This follows a 0.2pc fall
in GDP in the second quarter.
The contraction underlines the escalation of the financial crisis
that began in the US sub-prime mortgage market into a full-blown
economic downturn. The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and
Development and the International Monetary Fund have both warned in
the past two weeks that the US, Europe and Japan will also be in
recession next year for the first time since the Second World War.
"The latest data and survey evidence indicate that the fourth quarter
is likely to see a sharper fall in GDP as the financial crisis bites
harder," said Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight. The
European Central Bank is likely to slash rates from 3.75pc to 2pc by
the middle of 2009, according to Mr Archer.
The move would represent an about-turn for the ECB's policy makers
who in July increased rates to combat the threat of inflation.
Inflation in the region slowed to 3.2pc in October from 3.6pc in
September.
Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, confirmed yesterday that it
was in recession, with a 0.5pc contraction in GDP. The country has
been hard hit because of its position as the world's largest
exporter, as economies around globe slow. The UK and US economies
both contracted in the third quarter.
Germany is also home to some of the world's largest car manufacturers
including Volkswagen and BMW, and vehicle sales have dropped off
dramatically as cash-strapped consumers make do with older models.
=====================
2. Germany first of G7 powers to declare recession
Germany has become the first of the G7 powers to declare an official
recession. It will almost certainly be followed by France and Italy
as growth collapses across the eurozone.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The OECD club of rich states issued its own gloomy forecasts
yesterday, warning that Euroland, the US and Japan, will all shrink
next year - the first synchronized slump in the three areas since the
first oil crisis of the mid-1970s. "This is certainly not a V-shaped
recession," said Jorgen Elmeskov, the group's chief economist.
"In normal circumstances we'd say monetary policy is the instrument
of choice, but these aren't normal times. The transmission of
monetary policy may not work due to the credit crunch," he said.
Germany's statistics office said output had fallen by 0.5pc in the
third quarter, far worse than expected. It is the second quarter in a
row of declining output.
Bert Rurup, head of Germany's council of "Wisemen", said the crisis
has turned vicious over the late summer. "The collapse of Lehman
Brothers, which should absolutely have been prevented, brought the
global financial system to the brink of collapse. Governments have
averted catastrophe by taking action, which should limit the sort of
damage to the real economy that occurred in the Great Depression. But
I can't exclude horror scenarios, however unlikely."
Jacques Cailloux, Europe economist at RBS, said Germany is sliding
into the deepest slump in half a century. "We expect the economy to
contract by 1.2pc next year, the worst in the euro area," he said.
Both RBS and Citigroup say the European Central Bank will have to
follow the Bank of England with drastic rate cuts next month, perhaps
with a three-quarter point rate reduction to 2.5pc.
Germany has been hit first - and hardest - because of its reliance on
industrial exports. This is the flip-side of its achievement in
becoming become the world's biggest exporter, with a current account
surplus of 7pc of GDP. It is now "leveraged" to the downturn in
China, the Gulf and Eastern Europe - the new locus of the financial
crisis. Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia and Belarus are in the arms of the
IMF. Russia is in chaos as oil prices crash.
"Foreign orders have fallen by 18pc since November," said Mr
Cailloux. "This is very bad for German manufacturing and we are
afraid there is going to be a labour shock as they start to lay off
people."
The engineering group Siemens is cutting 17,000 jobs. The German car
industry - which accounts for 20pc of the nation's workforce - is
going through an ordeal by fire. BMW has halted production at three
plants, telling workers to stay home. The auto parts-maker
Continental said it is laying off 5,000 contractors.
The government has waived a new car tax for a year after new car
sales fell by 8pc in October - they fell by 16pc across Europe over
the same period - but the move is viewed as too little, too late.
While China is launching at $586bn (£396bn) fiscal blitz, and Japan
is spending $275bn, Germany has so far stuck to its orthodox script -
though it has a balanced budget, and ample scope for stimulus. Its
pop-gun package of ?12bn (£10bn) over two years is pocket change for
Europe's biggest economy.
"Germany is at a tipping point," said Giles Moec, from Bank of
America. " It needs a fiscal plan of about 1pc of GDP right now, and
this must be implemented immediately. But culturally Germans don't
like big fiscal boosts."
The Left-Right coalition of Chancellor Angela Merkel - now looking
very fractured - has been criticised for sleep-walking into this
crisis. It dismissed warnings of recession as "preposterous" and
denied that Germany was facing a credit crunch until the collapse of
the mortgage lender Hypo Real in September, the trigger that forced
Berlinto step in with a ?500bn guarantee for deposits. Twelve banks
and insurers have tapped the state rescue so far, including
Commerzbank .
German confidence in the financial system has since suffered a severe
blow. A quarter of the country's property funds have had to freeze
withdrawals, including those run by Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse,
AXA and Sweden's SEB, amounting to a total of ?34bn.
These funds have been a conduit for investing Germany's abundant
savings all over Europe and beyond. The crisis in the sector knocks
away another prop for property prices in Britain, Spain, Ireland and
Denmark. This has already hit the City of London, where Signa
Deutschland has had to pull out of its £150m purchase of Milton Gate
from UBS.
Thomas Fricke, chief economic columnist at the FT Deutschland, said
that ultimately it is the ECB that bears the most responsibility for
this recession. "The bank's failure to cut rates after the summer of
2007 and the grotesque way it raised rates in July may prove to be
one of the greatest monetary policy errors in history," he said.
no 'fat' in the system to fall back on as Brown prepares to up
borrowing, the very policy which makes our position so particularly
precarious.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx cs
===========================
TELEGRAPH Business News 14.11.08
1. Europe is in recession after bank meltdown
Europe has fallen into its first recession in 15 years, after the
global banking crisis and a decline in exports brought growth to a
shuddering halt.
By Amy Wilson
The Eurozone economy - made up of the 15 countries that use the euro
- contracted by 0.2pc in the third quarter. This follows a 0.2pc fall
in GDP in the second quarter.
The contraction underlines the escalation of the financial crisis
that began in the US sub-prime mortgage market into a full-blown
economic downturn. The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and
Development and the International Monetary Fund have both warned in
the past two weeks that the US, Europe and Japan will also be in
recession next year for the first time since the Second World War.
"The latest data and survey evidence indicate that the fourth quarter
is likely to see a sharper fall in GDP as the financial crisis bites
harder," said Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight. The
European Central Bank is likely to slash rates from 3.75pc to 2pc by
the middle of 2009, according to Mr Archer.
The move would represent an about-turn for the ECB's policy makers
who in July increased rates to combat the threat of inflation.
Inflation in the region slowed to 3.2pc in October from 3.6pc in
September.
Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, confirmed yesterday that it
was in recession, with a 0.5pc contraction in GDP. The country has
been hard hit because of its position as the world's largest
exporter, as economies around globe slow. The UK and US economies
both contracted in the third quarter.
Germany is also home to some of the world's largest car manufacturers
including Volkswagen and BMW, and vehicle sales have dropped off
dramatically as cash-strapped consumers make do with older models.
=====================
2. Germany first of G7 powers to declare recession
Germany has become the first of the G7 powers to declare an official
recession. It will almost certainly be followed by France and Italy
as growth collapses across the eurozone.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The OECD club of rich states issued its own gloomy forecasts
yesterday, warning that Euroland, the US and Japan, will all shrink
next year - the first synchronized slump in the three areas since the
first oil crisis of the mid-1970s. "This is certainly not a V-shaped
recession," said Jorgen Elmeskov, the group's chief economist.
"In normal circumstances we'd say monetary policy is the instrument
of choice, but these aren't normal times. The transmission of
monetary policy may not work due to the credit crunch," he said.
Germany's statistics office said output had fallen by 0.5pc in the
third quarter, far worse than expected. It is the second quarter in a
row of declining output.
Bert Rurup, head of Germany's council of "Wisemen", said the crisis
has turned vicious over the late summer. "The collapse of Lehman
Brothers, which should absolutely have been prevented, brought the
global financial system to the brink of collapse. Governments have
averted catastrophe by taking action, which should limit the sort of
damage to the real economy that occurred in the Great Depression. But
I can't exclude horror scenarios, however unlikely."
Jacques Cailloux, Europe economist at RBS, said Germany is sliding
into the deepest slump in half a century. "We expect the economy to
contract by 1.2pc next year, the worst in the euro area," he said.
Both RBS and Citigroup say the European Central Bank will have to
follow the Bank of England with drastic rate cuts next month, perhaps
with a three-quarter point rate reduction to 2.5pc.
Germany has been hit first - and hardest - because of its reliance on
industrial exports. This is the flip-side of its achievement in
becoming become the world's biggest exporter, with a current account
surplus of 7pc of GDP. It is now "leveraged" to the downturn in
China, the Gulf and Eastern Europe - the new locus of the financial
crisis. Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia and Belarus are in the arms of the
IMF. Russia is in chaos as oil prices crash.
"Foreign orders have fallen by 18pc since November," said Mr
Cailloux. "This is very bad for German manufacturing and we are
afraid there is going to be a labour shock as they start to lay off
people."
The engineering group Siemens is cutting 17,000 jobs. The German car
industry - which accounts for 20pc of the nation's workforce - is
going through an ordeal by fire. BMW has halted production at three
plants, telling workers to stay home. The auto parts-maker
Continental said it is laying off 5,000 contractors.
The government has waived a new car tax for a year after new car
sales fell by 8pc in October - they fell by 16pc across Europe over
the same period - but the move is viewed as too little, too late.
While China is launching at $586bn (£396bn) fiscal blitz, and Japan
is spending $275bn, Germany has so far stuck to its orthodox script -
though it has a balanced budget, and ample scope for stimulus. Its
pop-gun package of ?12bn (£10bn) over two years is pocket change for
Europe's biggest economy.
"Germany is at a tipping point," said Giles Moec, from Bank of
America. " It needs a fiscal plan of about 1pc of GDP right now, and
this must be implemented immediately. But culturally Germans don't
like big fiscal boosts."
The Left-Right coalition of Chancellor Angela Merkel - now looking
very fractured - has been criticised for sleep-walking into this
crisis. It dismissed warnings of recession as "preposterous" and
denied that Germany was facing a credit crunch until the collapse of
the mortgage lender Hypo Real in September, the trigger that forced
Berlinto step in with a ?500bn guarantee for deposits. Twelve banks
and insurers have tapped the state rescue so far, including
Commerzbank .
German confidence in the financial system has since suffered a severe
blow. A quarter of the country's property funds have had to freeze
withdrawals, including those run by Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse,
AXA and Sweden's SEB, amounting to a total of ?34bn.
These funds have been a conduit for investing Germany's abundant
savings all over Europe and beyond. The crisis in the sector knocks
away another prop for property prices in Britain, Spain, Ireland and
Denmark. This has already hit the City of London, where Signa
Deutschland has had to pull out of its £150m purchase of Milton Gate
from UBS.
Thomas Fricke, chief economic columnist at the FT Deutschland, said
that ultimately it is the ECB that bears the most responsibility for
this recession. "The bank's failure to cut rates after the summer of
2007 and the grotesque way it raised rates in July may prove to be
one of the greatest monetary policy errors in history," he said.
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