Friday 14 November 2008

A run on the pound could finish us!

Friday, 14 November, 2008 11:40 PM

It was perhaps right that Osborne should state his views in front of 
a more hostile bunch of journalists it is hard to imagine.  One at 
least was a founder Blairite!  (The Times in general is NOT currently 
anti-Tory but this bunch below are scarcely friendly!)

Osborne is right to say that the public distrust ‘borrowing to cut 
taxes’. The polls have said so.  But his mantra about properly funded 
tax cuts will not work unless it is married to a proper cut in 
expenditure of a major nasture.  Tinkering will not do and I 
repeatedly point to two big programmes which would save billions.   
(NHS centralised computer system and ID cards).  Everybody will 
produce alternatives but unless they can be implemented without 
lergislation and speedily - forget them.  Economists suggest that 
minimum tax cuts of £20 bn would be necessary to be effective.

So the crux of the matter in judging Tory policies is will they grasp 
the nettle of expenditure cuts ?


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15.11.08

Gordon Brown risks run on the pound, says George Osborne


Alice Thomson, Rachel Sylvester, Philip Webster and Francis Elliott

Britain is heading for a “collapse of sterling” if Gordon Brown 
persists with trying to borrow his way out of trouble, George Osborne 
says in an interview with The Times today.

Risking accusations that he is talking down the pound, the Shadow 
Chancellor mounts a ferocious attack on the Prime Minister, accusing 
him of following a deliberate “scorched-earth policy” that would 
leave the economy in a mess for the Tories to inherit.

Mr Osborne, ignoring the convention that senior politicians do not 
predict runs on the pound, says that the country knows instinctively 
that no government can borrow its way out of debt. He claims that the 
weight of debt will stifle recovery and also create a big risk for 
sterling.

“Sterling has devalued rapidly against the euro and the dollar. We 
are in danger, if the Government is not careful, of having a proper 
sterling collapse, a run on the pound. The danger of a run on the 
pound . . . is that it pushes up long-term interest rates, which is a 
huge burden on the economy. The more you borrow as a government the 
more you have to sell that debt and the less attractive your currency 
seems.”

The Shadow Chancellor’s warning of dangers to the pound came as 
sterling remained under intense pressure on currency markets.

The pound yesterday slipped to a 13-year low against a basket of 
other currencies. The dollar rate fell to below $1.48 and the euro 
rate to €1.17, a record low, capping its biggest weekly fall against 
the single currency.

Mr Osborne, fighting back after recent criticism of his performance 
as Shadow Chancellor, and of his involvement in the Corfu yacht 
affair, makes plain that his role is not being diminished and that he 
will continue to mastermind his party’s general election strategy.

He insists that he will be instinctively opposed to any “unfunded tax 
cuts” to be unveiled by Alistair Darling in the PreBudget Report on 
Monday week. But, with Mr Brown having declared in advance that the 
stimulus to be announced in the PBR will be unfunded, he leaves open 
the door to allowing through such tax cuts, as many on the Right of 
his party are urging him to do. He says: “What we are in favour of is 
funded tax cuts. I’m in favour of real tax cuts not tax cons.” But he 
then adds: “I’m not going to prejudge the PreBudget Report. I’m going 
to wait and see what he has to say.”

Mr Osborne suggests that Mr Brown “doesn’t care” how much he borrows. 
“His view is he probably won’t win the next election. The Tories can 
clear this mess up after I’ve gone. That is deeply irresponsible. 
It’s a scorched-earth policy, which I think the history books will 
write up as a total disaster and which the public will see through 
between now and the election.”

Mr Osborne responds to the criticism that he is too remote from 
backbench Tory MPs by saying that his “door is completely open” to 
anyone who wants to talk to him. Asked whether he would move to 
another job he says: “David Cameron decides who is in the Shadow 
Cabinet and what jobs we do. But we are working very closely together 
on economic policy not just for now, but for the election to come.”

Meanwhile, Mr Brown hinted yesterday that he will raise tax credits 
for the low paid as part of measures to kick-start the ailing 
economy. He also made an implicit criticism of the Bank of England 
for not lowering interest rates more quickly and suggested further 
cuts were “essential”.

(- - - Brown in USA)

The British Chambers of Commerce also sounds a warning over the 
threat to the pound today. In its latest economic forecast, the BCC 
says that were markets to come to see likely sharp rises in public 
borrowing as reckless the pound “may plummet to dangerous new lows”.