Britannia Radio

US global dominance 'set to wane'

US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over
the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on
global trends.

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia
will increasingly challenge US influence.

It also says the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and
food and water shortages will fuel conflict.

However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and
will depend on the actions of world leaders.

It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's
Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the
future of US influence and power.

The US will remain the single most important actor but will be
less dominant
Global Trends 2025

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with
risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC
prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term.

Washington will retain its considerable military advantages, but
scientific and technological advances; the use of "irregular warfare
tactics"; the proliferation of long-range precision weapons; and the
growing use of cyber warfare "increasingly will constrict US freedom of
action", it adds.

Nevertheless, the report concludes: "The US will remain the single most
important actor but will be less dominant."

Nuclear weapons use

The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global
position, with US dominance expected to continue.

But the latest Global Trends report says that rising economies such as
China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at
the top of a multi-polar international system.

NIC REPORT
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The EU is meanwhile predicted to become a "hobbled giant", unable to
turn its economic power into diplomatic or military muscle.

A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or
two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict.

Global warming, along with rising populations and economic growth will
put additional strains on natural resources, it warns, fuelling conflict
around the globe as countries compete for them.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade,
investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot
rule out a 19th Century-like scenario of arms races, territorial
expansion and military rivalries," the report says.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources
- could re-emerge."

Such conflicts and resource shortages could lead to the collapse of
governments in Africa and South Asia, and the rise of organised crime in
Eastern and Central Europe, it adds.

And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, the report
says, as "rogue states" and militant groups gain greater access to them.

But al-Qaeda could decay "sooner than people think", it adds, citing the
group's growing unpopularity in the Muslim world.

"The prospect that al-Qaeda will be among the small number of groups
able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh
ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a
mass movement," it says.

The NIC does, however, give some scope for leaders to take action to
prevent the emergence of new conflicts.

"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or]
in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and
alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of
the NIC.

And, our correspondent adds, it is worth noting that US intelligence has
been wrong before.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news. bbc.co.uk/ go/pr/fr/ -/1/hi/world/ americas/ 7741049.stm

Published: 2008/11/21 11:38:30 GMT