Thursday, 11 December 2008

Brown's strategy in HIS crisis is wrecking Britain - they all say it!

Thursday, 11 December, 2008 3:17 PM

It is clear that world opinion - not just German opinion - regards  
Gordon Brown’s strategy as deeply flawed if not ultimately disastrous.

Here are various newspaper comments today all saying the same 
thing.,  (I omit The Times since their Anatole Kaletsky - who is alm 
ost always wrong - confines his comments to the idea  “Borrow, 
spend... then recoup it in energy taxes.   Why taxing petrol more 
fiercely could plug the budget black hole, revive the economy - and 
help the car industry too” - which is bizarre verging on crazy! )


But the proof of the pudding in the end is exactly what Osborne 
predicted - and was ticked off for doing so - a run on the pound!   
When I last heard the euro was costing 88p against 75p a couple of 
months ago.  There is no logical reason why it should stop at 
parity ,  The euro could well cost more than a pound!   If it does - 
and even already - Brown-Darling  will not be able to borrow the vast 
sums he was talking about only 2 weeks ago.

  What would that entail?  It would mean national bankruptcy with the 
IMF dictating spending policy.  That would mean Gordon Brown would 
have wrecked the economy and the Welfare State too - all on his 
own.    That’s called “saving the world” in his terms!

Christina
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TELEGRAPH   11.12.08
Brown's economic rescue plan ineffective says German minister   
[shortened to avoid repetition only]
Gordon Brown's multibillion pound economic rescue plan has been 
dismissed as ineffective and expensive by Germany's finance minister.

    By James Kirkup, Political correspondent

Peer Steinbrück launched an outspoken attack on Mr Brown's fiscal 
stimulus package, saying a cut in VAT would have little impact and 
predicting that the huge debts the Treasury is taking on will be a 
burden on the UK economy for a generation.

The remarks are an embarrassment for the Prime Minister, who has 
repeatedly claimed his plans have set the template that other 
countries are following.

They came the same day Mr Brown was ridiculed in the Commons for 
declaring that his policies had "saved the world."

Mr Steinbrück's remarks, in an interview with Newsweek magazine, 
surfaced on the eve of a European Union summit where Germany is set 
to reject Mr Brown's appeals for others to follow his lead.

Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, is a Conservative, but she leads 
a coalition government and Mr Steinbrück is from the Social 
Democrats, a centre-left party with links to Labour.

Britain's national debt is set to exceed £1 trillion as the Treasury 
borrows an extra £500 billion over the next five years, some of it 
paying for £20 billion of temporary tax cuts Mr Brown hopes will 
soften the blow of the UK recession.

The heart of Mr Brown's package is the cut in VAT to 15 per cent 
until the end of next year, something that will cost the Treasury 
£12.5 billion.

Mr Steinbrück said the VAT cut would make little difference to 
consumer spending.

He said: "Our British friends are now cutting their value-added tax. 
We have no idea how much of that stores will pass on to customers. (- 
- - - - - -)"
He added: "All this will do is raise Britain's debt to a level that 
will take a whole generation to work off."

The minister also suggested Mr Brown had panicked by abandoning years 
of fiscal discipline and budget-balancing policies in favour of 
Keynesian spending financed by debt.

He said: "The same people who would never touch deficit spending are 
now tossing around billions. (- - - - - - -) .

Mr Mr Steinbrück even likened Mr Brown's borrowing binge to the 
practices that helped trigger the current financial crisis.

He said: "When I ask about the origins of the crisis, economists I 
respect tell me it is the credit-financed growth of recent years and 
decades. Isn't this the same mistake everyone is suddenly making 
again, under all the public pressure?"

The Conservatives have stepped up their attacks on Mr Brown's 
borrowing this week, demanding an early election to let voters judge 
the Prime Minister's policies.

George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: "This comment from the 
German finance minister totally demolishes Gordon Brown's central 
political charge that only the Conservatives oppose his expensive and 
ineffective vat measures.

Referring to Mr Brown's Commons gaffe, Mr Osborne added: "On the day 
he claimed to be saving the world, the world answered back.
========================
THE INDEPENDENT   11.12.08
German minister ridicules Brown's recovery plan
    By Nigel Morris, Deputy Political Editor

Gordon Brown's plans to soften the impact of recession have been 
denounced as "crass" and "breathtaking" by the German Finance Minister.

Peer Steinbrück triggered a diplomatic row with Britain on the eve of 
today's European economic crisis summit as he accused the Government 
of "tossing around billions" and saddling a generation with debt. He 
scorned the Prime Minister's decision to cut VAT and boost investment 
on public projects at the cost of increasing national debt to £118bn 
next year.

Dispensing with the usual niceties of diplomatic language, he 
questioned the wisdom of following the philosophy of economist John 
Maynard Keynes of using public cash to stimulate the economy. "The 
switch from decades of supply-side politics all the way to a crass 
Keynesianism is breathtaking," he told Newsweek magazine.

"When I ask about the origins of the [financial] crisis, economists I 
respect tell me it is the credit-financed growth of recent years and 
decades.
"Isn't this the same mistake everyone is suddenly making again, under 
all the public pressure?"

Mr Steinbrück went on to question the effectiveness of this month's 
VAT cut from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent:
"(- - - - - - -) All this will do is raise Britain's debt to a level 
that will take a generation to work off," he said.

European Union leaders will today begin debating a €200bn (£175bn) 
fiscal stimulus package supported by Mr Brown with the backing of 
Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, and José Manuel Barroso, the 
European Commission president. Their stance – discussed at a Downing 
Street meeting on Monday – had already attracted Mr Steinbrück's ire 
when he accused other European leaders of behaving like "lemmings" in 
response to the crisis.

The comments of Mr Steinbrück, a Social Democrat, may not necessarily 
be shared by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, [The Indie should 
not be silly!  Merkel has been adamant that Germany wsill not take 
part in the EU plan and is furious at not being included in the Brown-
Sarkozy-Barroso meeting in London this sweek! -cs]  who is a 
Christian Democrat, but they will raise the diplomatic temperature at 
an already difficult summit, which will also discuss climate change.

George Osborne, the shadow Chancellor, said the comments "totally 
demolished Gordon Brown's central political charge that only the 
Conservatives oppose his expensive and ineffective VAT measures".
========================
FINANCIAL TIMES   11.12.08
The fiscal cure may make the patient worse
    By Leszek Balcerowicz and Andrzej Rzonca

As the financial crisis attacks the economy, there is growing 
pressure on governments around the world to introduce fiscal stimulus 
programmes. This follows big interventions in the financial sector, 
massive easing of monetary policy, especially in the US, and 
substantial loosening of fiscal policy
. The fact that there are time 
lags between these interventions and their effects seems to have been 
ignored.

The assumption appears to be that fiscal stimulus will automatically 
revive private spending. But this belief contrasts with data that 
show there is considerable uncertainty about the size and nature of 
the stimulus required to cause spending to increase.  [In other words 
the Brown policy of VAT reduction at vast expense here in Britain is 
a waste of enormous sums of money -cs]

Some say that financial crisis in the developed economies creates 
favourable conditions for a strong Keynesian stimulus. This would, 
the theory goes, boost the confidence of consumers and increase their 
readiness to spend the extra money. The larger the stimulus, the 
stronger its impact on consumer confidence and the greater the 
multiplier effect. How this effect would be produced is not 
explained. Instead we are given mechanical metaphors, such as “jump-
starting” the economy.

Consumers should not be regarded as Pavlov’s dogs, automatically 
responding to stimuli offered by politicians. Consumers are guided by 
expectations. They take a longer term view in making their spending 
and saving decisions. This limits the stimulating effect of most 
temporary tax cuts relative to permanent ones. Consumers also have 
concerns about the fiscal sustainability of their governments in 
assessing their long-term disposable income. Research suggests that 
when the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product is already 
high, the multiplier effect of fiscal stimulus is low. In extreme 
cases, fiscal expansion may even be contractionary. This fact should 
reduce the number of countries that undertake fiscal stimulus, 
especially if one considers their unfunded liabilities and the fiscal 
consequences of the public interventions undertaken so far.

Not only is there a danger that the high initial level of public debt 
relative to GDP will limit the impact of any fiscal stimulus. In 
addition, the sheer size of a stimulus package, which would lead to a 
deterioration of a country’s fiscal position, may have a negative 
effect on consumer confidence.

Consider Sweden’s banking crisis in the early 1990s. Discretionary 
fiscal stimulus was immense, but counter-productive. With public debt 
growing fast, households and entrepreneurs became pessimistic about 
the future of the country. This pulled private spending down. 
Besides, risk premiums rose to the same level as in Italy, which had 
a tradition of excessively loose fiscal policy. This is a warning 
that cheap financing of radically increased budget deficits should 
not be taken for granted. The current crisis has taught consumers in 
many countries that there are limits to their debt. Do we want to 
learn this lesson in relation to the public debt as well?

A large fiscal stimulus may also turn out to have a negative impact 
on financial intermediation. Financial turbulence generates the risk 
of a credit crunch. How to mitigate this danger is a major worry of 
many governments. One of the reasons banks are reluctant to lend is 
they have insufficient capital. According to the International 
Monetary Fund’s recent “Global Financial Stability Report,” banks 
need globally almost $700bn (€540bn, £474bn) of additional capital. A 
simultaneous large borrowing by governments to finance their fiscal 
stimulus could make it more difficult for banks to gain access to 
global capital markets and possibly limit any increases in their 
capital and lending. The ability of the emerging economies to finance 
their growth will also be affected. Large fiscal stimulus by 
developed economies could deepen a credit crunch in the less 
developed one.

One thing is sure: a large fiscal stimulus would increase public 
indebtedness and impose a burden on future growth. Big increases in 
public investments are likely to be wasteful, as it is not possible 
to have a long backlog of well-prepared projects. In addition, 
political pressures might dominate considerations. A large increase 
in spending may also raise the possibility of corruption. A fiscal 
stimulus that temporarily lowers indirect taxes at the cost of future 
increases in marginal income taxes (for example, in the UK) does not 
improve incentives to work, invest and innovate.

The effects of large fiscal stimulus in most countries are likely to 
be disappointing, while the longer time impact would be negative. The 
financial crisis is blamed on, among other things, deficient risk 
management. The proposals for a large fiscal stimulus suffer from the 
same weakness.
---------------------------------------------------
Leszek Balcerowicz, a former finance minister, deputy prime minister 
and central bank president in Poland, is head of the international 
and comparative studies department at the Warsaw School of Economics. 
Andrzej Rzonca is an adjunct professor of economics at the Warsaw 
School of Economics and the chief economist in the FOR Foundation
========================
SPECTATOR   11.12.08
Politics   - FRASER NELSON

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

Before a country has to beg the IMF for a bail-out, there are 
normally several clear warning signs. Its national debt needs to be 
vast — say, several times its entire economic output. Next, it 
becomes dependent on that debt, as its government is unable to 
balance a budget.
Then, the downfall: its currency starts to devalue 
rapidly, as the world begins to doubt whether this debt will be 
repaid. The premiums to insure it against default start to soar. The 
risk premiums demanded by creditors become simply unaffordable. And 
then: pop.

It is still highly unlikely that Britain will go to the IMF, but the 
highly unlikely has been happening rather a lot recently. Monday’s 
newspapers had a full-page advertisement from a high-street bank   
[HSBC since you ask! -cs] boasting about its ‘global vision and 
prudent long-term strategy’. Seeing Gordon Brown’s leaden economic 
clichés used to sell mortgages is an almost Orwellian sign of a new 
economic order. Lord Mandelson, who railed against state bail-outs as 
a European commissioner, is making an actual list of companies he 
considers worth saving.

To judge by the newspaper headlines — the latest being an offer to 
pay sacked middle-class workers to study for MBAs — one can labour 
under the misapprehension that Mr Brown has stumbled across a cash 
geyser. There seems to be no end to the money flowing from the 
Treasury at the PM’s behest. Yet if the government is bailing out 
companies, banks and mortgage holders, who is bailing out the 
government? There is no clear answer to this, and it lies at the 
heart of the biggest single peril the Prime Minister now faces.
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POLITICS HOME  11.12.08


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POLITICS HOME - Comment
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Sky News at 08:26
Balls: Germany will join international consensus

Ed Balls, Schools Secretary

Mr Balls said the attack on the government's economic strategy by the 
German finance minister was prompted by "internal politics" and he 
predicted the country would eventually join the international 
consensus alongside the UK.


"I have known him for many years. He always had strong and robust 
views but this says more about the current state of coalition 
politics in Germany. When that is resolved you will find Germany 
joining the consensus around the world.

"The Conservatives are the only people in the whole of the world 
standing out against this. They are out of step with the times."
[It is not just the Germans who think that Brown’s policy of the 
hugely expensive and totally ineffective VAT cuts is crazy.  No other 
country is doing anything so silly and the French have been equally 
critical -cs]

Asked about the Prime Minister's "saving the world" slip, Mr Balls 
said: "The Prime Minister did not mean to say that but the UK is 
leading the world. We need to save the world from a deeper downturn."
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Sky News at 12:39
Cameron: German finance minister was saying what we're saying

David Cameron, Conservative leader

Mr Cameron said that the criticisms of Britain's handling of the 
economic crisis by the German finance minister mirror those made by 
the Conservative party.

"What the German finance minister was saying is what we're saying. 
This enormous binge of borrowing is going to make the recession worse 
and the recovery more difficult. That’s why we’ve got to stop it."
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

“The more substantial point is that Steinbruck and his colleagues are 
really pretty fed up about being lectured by Gordon Brown on how to 
run their economy,” he said.

He added: “The German Social Democrats have long being telling the 
British that the City of London and the sort of greed and 
irresponsibility that took place in the financial market was 
potentially very unstable”.


“Gordon Brown took the credit and lectured the Germans and they are 
getting their own back in a serious way.”