This EU Council meeting - “Summit” - looks like being contentious and
possibly fractious. There is no easy consensus on anything!
The Irish impasse [I am posting separately on that!] will be assessed
and then left to fester for 10 months. There is asbsolutely no
guarantee that the Irish love their politicians so much that they
will now cave in. After almost all their politicians accepted the
Lisbon Treaty as it was in the first place! With some cosmetic
tweakings the Irish may be happier now. Who knows?
Then there’s the mad rampant March of The Greens. It is difficult to
comment calmly on something so fundamentally flawed in all its
assumptions but Richard North has a go!
xxxxxxxxxxxxx cs
========================
EU OBSERVER 11.12.08
EU leaders gather for rift-packed summit
LUCIA KUBOSOVA
BRUSSELS - Almost two years after adopting ambitious green goals, a
year after signing the new Lisbon Treaty and some sixteen months
after the first signs of the financial crisis, EU leaders are meeting
in Brussels on Thursday (11 December) to write a new chapter in the
three long-running dossiers.
The top-level gathering will kick off at 3 p.m., which is earlier
than usual, with some diplomats predicting what will certainly be
quarrelsome talks could drag on until late Friday or even early
Saturday, as the host of the meeting, French president Nicolas
Sarkozy - whose country is finishing its six-month chairmanship of
the EU, is ready to do all it takes to get a deal.
But it will be his Irish colleague, Prime Minister Brian Cowen to
open the show by presenting Dublin's analysis on why the Irish voters
rejected the EU's reform treaty in the June referendum and what can
be done to rescue its ratification.
But judging by the draft conclusions put forward by the French
presidency last night, Ireland has already achieved enough backing
from both Paris and some other capitals to win a promise of all
"necessary legal guarantees" on the controversial issues for the
country of four million.
"Taxation policy, family, social and ethical issues, and common
security and defence policy with regard to Ireland's traditional
policy of neutrality" should all be safeguarded in a separate
declaration to be adopted later, the Irish Times has reported.
Moreover, Dublin could see a pledge to retain the country's
commissioner if all other EU leaders follow the French line – all in
a bid to enable the Irish government to hold the second referendum by
31 October, according to the draft document.
It would mean that one of the key elements of the EU's institutional
reform would be changed despite previous pressure on member states
not to touch the package when the bloc was turning the former
European Constitution into the Lisbon Treaty, following the negative
referendums in France and the Netherlands.
Germany and the Benelux countries have criticised the idea, while
some smaller states argue they had always preferred that the one-
commissioner-per-member-state principle be preserved in the
composition of the bloc's key regulating body.
Under the Lisbon Treaty, the commission would be slimmed down to
representing just two-thirds of the countries at any one time as of
2014, "unless the European Council [premiers and presidents of member
states], acting unanimously, decides to alter this number."
How much is enough?
Another hot issue at the summit will be Europe's grand strategy for
economic recovery. Brussels has suggested that the Union invest 1.5
percent of its GDP to boost economic activity amid projections of a
severe recession in 2009.
While the plan was "in principle" accepted by the bloc's finance
ministers last week, Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, but also
several other countries are reluctant to promise additional financial
injections beyond what they have already planned for their domestic
pump-priming plans.
But according to calculations by Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-
tank, the EU-wide direct fiscal boost is currently projected to reach
only 0.6 percent of the EU's GDP by the end of 2009, substantially
below the advertised target.
Moreover, some countries have complained that the summit conclusions
as drafted by the French presidency suggested the recovery-related
goal should be a public investment boost of "at least" 1.5 percent of
EU's GDP.
"We don't want to create an image that whenever EU leaders meet, they
raise this figure," one diplomat following the negotiations commented.
Apart from the debate on the amount of public money to be pumped in
the economy, EU leaders are likely to cross swords over the list of
measures to be supported, with Britain keen to see VAT cuts included,
as part of its own recipe for recovery, against the opposition of
most other countries.
Toughest battle
But if anything is to cause the leaders to be up all night, it will
be the complicated arguments over the climate change package.
Although the member states had agreed on most elements of the
legislation before this week's top-level meeting, there are still a
couple of areas where they had not been able to strike a compromise
since the European Commission put forward the bill in January.
There are two camps of opponents of the green plan, among both
western wealthy countries and states in central and Eastern Europe.
On one hand, Germany has been resisting the attempts by most "new"
member states to achieve greater compensation due to their lower
economic potential to be able to face the costs of the required
investments.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel also made clear this week that the
summit "must not take decisions that would endanger jobs or
investments in Germany."
"I will see to that," she said, referring to the Berlin's bid to
allow key German industries to be awarded emission allowances in the
projected auction scheme for free.
Italy is also threatening the result of the talks due to concerns
over the impact of the package. "If I see that Italian interests will
be hurt in an excessive way, I will use our veto rights," the
country's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi warned on Wednesday,
according to Italian media.
On the other hand, the Visegrad four countries of central Europe, the
three Baltic states plus Romania and Bulgaria are presenting a united
front in floating various proposals on how they should be compensated
for their previous efforts to cut CO2 emissions.
========================
EU REFERENDUM Blog 11.12.08
Creaking at the seams
There has been a huge amount of media coverage recently about the
talks on "climate change", with both the Poznan conference and the EU
coming unstuck as the growing recession hits home.
Nevertheless, it seemed best to hold fire until we see the outcome of
Poznan and of the European Council (which actually starts today and
runs until tomorrow). Offering a blow-by-blow account is rather like
reporting on the gibbering of madmen in a lunatic asylum – and about
as interesting. The only problem is that these madmen are running the
asylum, and many governments as well.
What particularly struck home, however, is just how many of them
there are, with a reported 11,600 participants from around the world
at the Poznan beano. One wonders – fleetingly – what they can all be
doing but, rather like the content of sausages, it is perhaps best
not to ask.
Some (pictured) have clearly been entertaining themselves by
displaying a banner from the roof of the town's railway station. One
hopes they got rather cold in the process.
However, there is some small hope that the lunatics will be shoved
back into their padded cells. Recently, we reported that the EU
parliament and the Council had agreed a deal on the Renewable Energy
Directive, clearing the way for the approval of mandatory biofuel and
renewable electricity quotas.
At the eleventh hour, however, up has popped the Austrian government
which has questioned the renewables targets and appears to be
threatening the whole Directive. The delicious thing about this is
that it had done so after the negotiations between the Council and
the EP have been finalised.
The significance of this is that, under EU procedure, since there is
now an agreed "common position", there is no mechanism for re-opening
the negotiations. This could force the EP to end up voting on a
position which is different from that which the Council agrees. Under
the arcane rules of the game, that would mean the Directive would
fall and the "colleagues" would have to start all over again.
As always, there will be frantic, last minute attempts to stitch up
the stitch-up, but there is absolutely no room for manoeuvre if
Austria really puts its foot down and blocks the deal. The only way
out will be to buy off the Austrian government with concessions
unrelated to this particular Directive, which may be the prize which
is being played for.
Whatever the outcome of that little drama, it does point to the fact
that the "consensus" is creaking at the seams. The "colleagues" may
just pull it off this time, but it is becoming clearer by the day
that they and their fantasies are living on borrowed time.
---------------------------------------
Posted by Richard North
possibly fractious. There is no easy consensus on anything!
The Irish impasse [I am posting separately on that!] will be assessed
and then left to fester for 10 months. There is asbsolutely no
guarantee that the Irish love their politicians so much that they
will now cave in. After almost all their politicians accepted the
Lisbon Treaty as it was in the first place! With some cosmetic
tweakings the Irish may be happier now. Who knows?
Then there’s the mad rampant March of The Greens. It is difficult to
comment calmly on something so fundamentally flawed in all its
assumptions but Richard North has a go!
xxxxxxxxxxxxx cs
========================
EU OBSERVER 11.12.08
EU leaders gather for rift-packed summit
LUCIA KUBOSOVA
BRUSSELS - Almost two years after adopting ambitious green goals, a
year after signing the new Lisbon Treaty and some sixteen months
after the first signs of the financial crisis, EU leaders are meeting
in Brussels on Thursday (11 December) to write a new chapter in the
three long-running dossiers.
The top-level gathering will kick off at 3 p.m., which is earlier
than usual, with some diplomats predicting what will certainly be
quarrelsome talks could drag on until late Friday or even early
Saturday, as the host of the meeting, French president Nicolas
Sarkozy - whose country is finishing its six-month chairmanship of
the EU, is ready to do all it takes to get a deal.
But it will be his Irish colleague, Prime Minister Brian Cowen to
open the show by presenting Dublin's analysis on why the Irish voters
rejected the EU's reform treaty in the June referendum and what can
be done to rescue its ratification.
But judging by the draft conclusions put forward by the French
presidency last night, Ireland has already achieved enough backing
from both Paris and some other capitals to win a promise of all
"necessary legal guarantees" on the controversial issues for the
country of four million.
"Taxation policy, family, social and ethical issues, and common
security and defence policy with regard to Ireland's traditional
policy of neutrality" should all be safeguarded in a separate
declaration to be adopted later, the Irish Times has reported.
Moreover, Dublin could see a pledge to retain the country's
commissioner if all other EU leaders follow the French line – all in
a bid to enable the Irish government to hold the second referendum by
31 October, according to the draft document.
It would mean that one of the key elements of the EU's institutional
reform would be changed despite previous pressure on member states
not to touch the package when the bloc was turning the former
European Constitution into the Lisbon Treaty, following the negative
referendums in France and the Netherlands.
Germany and the Benelux countries have criticised the idea, while
some smaller states argue they had always preferred that the one-
commissioner-per-member-state principle be preserved in the
composition of the bloc's key regulating body.
Under the Lisbon Treaty, the commission would be slimmed down to
representing just two-thirds of the countries at any one time as of
2014, "unless the European Council [premiers and presidents of member
states], acting unanimously, decides to alter this number."
How much is enough?
Another hot issue at the summit will be Europe's grand strategy for
economic recovery. Brussels has suggested that the Union invest 1.5
percent of its GDP to boost economic activity amid projections of a
severe recession in 2009.
While the plan was "in principle" accepted by the bloc's finance
ministers last week, Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, but also
several other countries are reluctant to promise additional financial
injections beyond what they have already planned for their domestic
pump-priming plans.
But according to calculations by Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-
tank, the EU-wide direct fiscal boost is currently projected to reach
only 0.6 percent of the EU's GDP by the end of 2009, substantially
below the advertised target.
Moreover, some countries have complained that the summit conclusions
as drafted by the French presidency suggested the recovery-related
goal should be a public investment boost of "at least" 1.5 percent of
EU's GDP.
"We don't want to create an image that whenever EU leaders meet, they
raise this figure," one diplomat following the negotiations commented.
Apart from the debate on the amount of public money to be pumped in
the economy, EU leaders are likely to cross swords over the list of
measures to be supported, with Britain keen to see VAT cuts included,
as part of its own recipe for recovery, against the opposition of
most other countries.
Toughest battle
But if anything is to cause the leaders to be up all night, it will
be the complicated arguments over the climate change package.
Although the member states had agreed on most elements of the
legislation before this week's top-level meeting, there are still a
couple of areas where they had not been able to strike a compromise
since the European Commission put forward the bill in January.
There are two camps of opponents of the green plan, among both
western wealthy countries and states in central and Eastern Europe.
On one hand, Germany has been resisting the attempts by most "new"
member states to achieve greater compensation due to their lower
economic potential to be able to face the costs of the required
investments.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel also made clear this week that the
summit "must not take decisions that would endanger jobs or
investments in Germany."
"I will see to that," she said, referring to the Berlin's bid to
allow key German industries to be awarded emission allowances in the
projected auction scheme for free.
Italy is also threatening the result of the talks due to concerns
over the impact of the package. "If I see that Italian interests will
be hurt in an excessive way, I will use our veto rights," the
country's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi warned on Wednesday,
according to Italian media.
On the other hand, the Visegrad four countries of central Europe, the
three Baltic states plus Romania and Bulgaria are presenting a united
front in floating various proposals on how they should be compensated
for their previous efforts to cut CO2 emissions.
========================
EU REFERENDUM Blog 11.12.08
Creaking at the seams
There has been a huge amount of media coverage recently about the
talks on "climate change", with both the Poznan conference and the EU
coming unstuck as the growing recession hits home.
Nevertheless, it seemed best to hold fire until we see the outcome of
Poznan and of the European Council (which actually starts today and
runs until tomorrow). Offering a blow-by-blow account is rather like
reporting on the gibbering of madmen in a lunatic asylum – and about
as interesting. The only problem is that these madmen are running the
asylum, and many governments as well.
What particularly struck home, however, is just how many of them
there are, with a reported 11,600 participants from around the world
at the Poznan beano. One wonders – fleetingly – what they can all be
doing but, rather like the content of sausages, it is perhaps best
not to ask.
Some (pictured) have clearly been entertaining themselves by
displaying a banner from the roof of the town's railway station. One
hopes they got rather cold in the process.
However, there is some small hope that the lunatics will be shoved
back into their padded cells. Recently, we reported that the EU
parliament and the Council had agreed a deal on the Renewable Energy
Directive, clearing the way for the approval of mandatory biofuel and
renewable electricity quotas.
At the eleventh hour, however, up has popped the Austrian government
which has questioned the renewables targets and appears to be
threatening the whole Directive. The delicious thing about this is
that it had done so after the negotiations between the Council and
the EP have been finalised.
The significance of this is that, under EU procedure, since there is
now an agreed "common position", there is no mechanism for re-opening
the negotiations. This could force the EP to end up voting on a
position which is different from that which the Council agrees. Under
the arcane rules of the game, that would mean the Directive would
fall and the "colleagues" would have to start all over again.
As always, there will be frantic, last minute attempts to stitch up
the stitch-up, but there is absolutely no room for manoeuvre if
Austria really puts its foot down and blocks the deal. The only way
out will be to buy off the Austrian government with concessions
unrelated to this particular Directive, which may be the prize which
is being played for.
Whatever the outcome of that little drama, it does point to the fact
that the "consensus" is creaking at the seams. The "colleagues" may
just pull it off this time, but it is becoming clearer by the day
that they and their fantasies are living on borrowed time.
---------------------------------------
Posted by Richard North
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