December 15, 2008
"Interesting Times"
That's the old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times." And indeed we do. Sometimes it's hard to know what to look at first.
Defense Minister Barak has sent his top aide, Amos Gilad, to Cairo to discuss with the Egyptians the possibility of renewing the "ceasefire" that ends on Friday of this week.
(Actually words are bandied about loosely in the media: ceasefire, truce. What we're talking about is a tahadiyeh, which is an informally agreed upon period of calm. A hudnah is a formal ceasefire agreement. So, a "lull" or "period of quiet" best describes what's being sought, not "ceasefire" or "truce.")
We knew this was coming, didn't we?
Residents of the communities near Gaza consider this ridiculous, because there hasn't been any "ceasefire" for a while now. They ought to know, for they're the ones getting bombarded with rockets and mortars.
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I wrote yesterday about how we used to operate on the basis of deterrence but now have a policy that is pure confusion. Here's a perfect example. It's not only the residents of local communities that know this is a joke, so does Hamas.
According to my information, provided via the IDF, in the last six months, the time of the "ceasefire," almost 370 projectiles -- 190 Kassam rockets and close the same number of mortars, as well as few Grad Katyushas -- have been shot from Gaza. That's an average of more than two per day. What we're saying is, hey, if we didn't have this informal deal, it would be a lot more than that, so we'll pretend what we've had is a "ceasefire." (wink wink) This makes us weak.
At an absolute bare minimum, Barak ought to say, "If you want a 'ceasefire,' give us a real 'ceasefire.' Otherwise the deal is off." He won't.
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Numerous reasons are being offered as to why Barak favors this "ceasefire" policy:
Barak is afraid if we do a ground operation we will be stuck in Gaza again. Myself, I think this is absolutely necessary. The powers that be are simply playing around. We say having a terrorist entity at our border isn't acceptable, but does anyone imagine the terrorists are going to pack their bags and go quietly into the night? It's time to restore the situation to the status quo ante and stop fooling around. They had their chance to make something of themselves and blew it big-time.
Barak is also afraid, it is said, that even if we do a more limited operation it might escalate into a ground operation. What "borscht" this is. See my comment above.
Still another reason is said to be Barak's fear that in the course of an operation many rockets would be fired at the communities on the periphery of Gaza. Well, I hate to break this to him, but Hamas -- whose goal is our destruction -- has the capacity to fire those rockets any time it chooses, and will shoot when it is ready. This lull does not exactly represent a permanent cessation of hostilities. The longer we sit without hitting them the stronger they get towards the time when they will hit. This is better?
No, it's not better, but it wouldn't be on Barak's watch. And that's what counts, right? Interesting that the upcoming elections are not mentioned as a reason to not do a Gaza operation now.
The only thing that might make sense is concern about fighting on two fronts at the same time and what Hezbollah might be up to.
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Top IDF officers have voiced a call for renewal of operations into Gaza, and Shaul Mofaz, now a member of Kadima and formerly minister of defense in Likud, says there never should have been an agreement for "quiet" if Gilad Shalit was not part of the deal.
And our new, reformulated foreign minister is saying that:
"As long as Hamas continues to operate with terror from Gaza, Israel will operate with its own means. It needs and must respond to terror through military means."
I continue to believe that she's shifted somewhat right in response to the Likud primary.
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Meanwhile there seems to be disagreement within Hamas as to whether to continue the lull, such as it may be. Hamas leader in Damascus, Khaled Mashaal, has stated that "the general mood among the Palestinian people and factions" is opposed to a renewal of the lull.
What rather startled me was this sentence in the Post report, to which the reliable Khaled Abu Toameh has contributed: "[The Hamas leadership is] insisting instead on an unofficial agreement that would allow Hamas to continue firing rockets at Israel in response to IDF attacks on its members."
Leadership inside of Gaza, it is being reported, is favoring an extension of the lull. One of the things that is being sought is opening of the crossings into Gaza.
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The people of Gaza are not as dependent upon those crossings as Hamas would have the world believe because they are utilizing the tunnels from the Sinai. I found fascinating this acknowledgement by the UN, from a GlobeandMail piece on December 12:
"'Reports that as many as 50 per cent of children are suffering from malnutrition are exaggerations,' says Khaled Abdel Shaafi, director the United Nations Development Program.
"'This is not a humanitarian crisis,' he said. 'It's an economic crisis, a political crisis, but it's not a humanitarian crisis. People aren't starving.'
"'That doesn't mean it's pleasant,' he said. 'It's like a prison: You have shelter and food, but it's not a nice place to live.'"
Amazing, in light of what was said by UN representatives at a press conference I attended on November 26: Both Maxwell Gaylard, UN Humanitarian Coordinator, and Philippe Lazzarin, Head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, stated unequivocally that there was a humanitarian crisis.
Do these guys not coordinate with each other? Of course, the press conference was called to announced the launching of fundraising for relief efforts in Gaza. A signal lesson here.
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According to PA officials in Ramallah, Mahmoud Abbas plans to extend his term as president for a year past its January 9 expiration date. They claim that the Arab League backs this move, as they're trying to buy time until there can be a reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah (which would permit a pan-Palestinian election).
Hamas, for its part, has made it clear that it will not accept this, and will be naming Abdel Aziz Dweik, speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, as acting president and then will hold elections. Dweik, it should be noted, has been in an Israeli prison since the Hamas abduction of Gilad Shalit.
This is where things will get really "interesting."
A poll done by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research last Thursday shows that 64% of Palestinians think Abbas's term is over.
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Senator Kit Bond (R-MO), the ranking Republican on the Senates Intelligence Committee, has paid a lightning visit here, during the course of which he has given an interview to the Jerusalem Post. In response to recent Obama statements about his approach to Iran, he said that:
"Offering them carrots does nothing, talking about it is not effective. We need sanctions and full pressure."
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The latest group of prisoners has been released: 224 to Ramallah and a greeting by Abbas, and another 18 to go to Gaza. The petition by the Almagor Terror Victims Association asking that they not be released was ultimately rejected by the High Court because the State indicated that none of those slated for release had harmed Israelis.
What nonsense. Almagor says some had attempted murder. So if they tried, and failed, this makes them safe?
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see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info
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