Despite what the tabloid press make headlines of the truth is much
nastyier and more complex./ The Banks cannot match cuts in Bank Rate
since their costs have little directly to do with it. But Gordon
Brown, the Daily Express, and Gordon Brown and the Daily Mail and
Gordon Brown and the Daily Mirror call on the banks to pass on the
cut in full. But the banks don't want to commit suicide!
This is a basic explanation of how it works and well worth reading
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX CS
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SUNDAY TELEGRAPH 7.12.08
My new rule for recessions: don't bank on public understanding
Even in times like these, when the only adjectives that seem to be
appropriate are "transformational", "seismic" or "unprecedented", a
week that saw a Queen's speech followed by the Bank of England
reducing the bank rate to the lowest for some 57 years is dramatic in
anyone's language.
By Angela Knight
Borrowers have been calling for lower interest rates for some time;
savers, unsurprisingly, are getting very concerned as they have less
income to live off from conventional savings accounts. This, in fact,
encapsulates one of the dilemmas of the current situation - that what
seems right for some is wrong for others.
Regardless, after each of these extraordinary rate cuts by the Bank
of England - 2.5 per cent in total in five weeks, when the base rate
usually moves by only 0.25 per cent at a time - the only follow-up
question that has been asked is: will the banks pass the rate on to
borrowers?
This question implies that the banks immediately benefit themselves
from a cut in base rate, which they do not.
The cost of funds to the banks depends on a range of factors, such as
what they pay savers to attract deposits, and the cost of money in
the wholesale market as measured by the London interbank offer rate,
or Libor for short. Before the credit crunch hit, the Libor rate was
very close to the base rate, but now it is much higher because there
is a shortage of money in the UK wholesale market.
The wholesale money market is very important, as Britain is not the
nation of savers it once was. With those deposits no longer coming in
as they had in the past, banks filled the gap by borrowing more on
the then buoyant and cheap wholesale credit markets. This translated
into low-priced lending to customers of all kinds.
In addition, banks were also able to keep the price of credit down by
packaging up debt and selling it on through the securitisation
process. This was effective until the securitisation market became
infected by exposure to defaulting American sub-prime mortgages, and
the value of the more complex securitisations became difficult to
assess under new "mark to market" accounting rules. Confidence
evaporated and a prime source of providing funding and spreading risk
dried up.
With these problems came a greater than normal spread between the
Bank of England's base rate and Libor. So, when the base rate was
reduced by 1 per cent on Thursday, the key Libor rate reduced by only
0.3 per cent.
There are also the costs of doing business to consider: the
employees, the branches, the call centres, and, lastly, the cost of
the losses as rising numbers of borrowers are unable to pay their debts.
This all obviously needs to be taken into account by banks when
calculating what rate changes they make when the Bank of England cuts
base rates; they must also consider those who save with them.
Many who call on banks to "pass it on" are unaware of these issues;
others, for various reasons, choose to ignore them. That is of no
help to borrowers as it gives them false expectations - and it does
nothing for savers either, many of whom are retired and rely on their
savings.
The global credit crunch is impacting on all countries, but the
degree of the impact relates in part to the extent of indebtedness -
and in the UK we owe more per person than most of our competitor
countries. Yet we are not being pressed to cut back: on the contrary,
Government policies (such as the fiscal stimulus package) aim to
ensure banks continue to lend and to make credit available at last
year's levels, so that people continue to spend and minimise the
impact of the recession.
The £37 billion stabilisation package for some banks means they have
to hold more capital rather than use it to support new lending. [AND
she does't mention that this £37 bn attracts interest payments of no
less than £4.4bn a year which is a cost to be passed on to borrowers -
cs] Yet responsible lending to individuals and viable businesses is
still taking place and at reasonable levels despite the perceptions
to the contrary.
There are calls, for example, for the banks to make more mortgages
available. Yet, while there were more than 100 mortgage lenders 18
months ago, now only the major banks and a handful of building
societies are active in this market. The result is that large numbers
of re-mortgages are being granted as the other lenders exit the
market. These, plus new mortgages, come from the six major banks. The
story is similar when it comes to small and medium-sized enterprises
- the lending by the major banks has been maintained. Many other
lenders, though, such as the Icelandic banks, are simply no longer
there. It really is only the mainstream lenders that are now able and
willing to lend to viable businesses.
From working through past recessions, I have learned four key
points. First, recessions are nasty. Second, it is those businesses
that cut costs and become more competitive that will survive. Often
what small business in particular needs is advice of what changes to
make, as there is still business to be done in a recession. Third,
politicians can help, particularly if they concentrate on measures to
help business, employment and so job security. Fourth, recessions do
pass.
On this occasion, it is important to add a fifth point: when it comes
to the banks, it might be uncomfortable, but we would do better to
understand a little more before leaping to instant condemnation.
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Angela Knight is chief executive of the British Bankers' Association
Sunday, 7 December 2008
Posted by Britannia Radio at 13:00