Britannia Radio

Forecasts, Ireland - - Plus!

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TELEGRAPH   29.12.08
2009: What the /^ economic experts see in their crystal balls

JEFF RANDALL, editor-at-large,
If you thought 2008 was a tough year, then hold tight: 2009 will be 
worse. The Government's bail-out of the banks will start to fall 
apart: more capital will need to be pumped in if all mainstream 
lenders are to survive. The Treasury's forecast for state borrowing - 
an eye-popping £118 billion - will be readjusted upwards, as revenues 
collapse at a faster rate than predicted and unemployment escalates. 
Another well-known retailer will join Woolworths in administration. 
The City will be hit by a blockbusting scandal.

AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD, international business editor
We will stop talking about banks. Interest rates will flirt with zero 
across the world. This will not be enough to prevent debt deflation 
leading to a light global depression. Job losses will reach one 
million a month in the US. The damage will be slower in Europe, but 
last longer. The great surprise will be the ferocity of the downturn 
in China. By the middle of the year, the geopolitical landscape will 
look very different: those without a deep-rooted democracy and rule 
of law will lose legitimacy. In the eurozone, the markets will look 
closely at Spain, Italy, Greece, Austria, and Ireland. By late 2009, 
the emergency fiscal stimulus will feed through. Those first into 
recession will be first out, led by the US. Wall Street will 
anticipate a US rebound. Equities, oil and gold will rally. Bonds 
will be slaughtered.

VINCE CABLE, Lib Dem economic spokesman
Next year will be dominated by the economics of recession: growing 
unemployment, home repossessions and negative equity, the shrinkage 
in private pensions and savings, businesses struggling to survive. I 
hope to see signs of recovery, but I fear that the crisis will be 
deeper and longer than expected.

SIMON HEFFER, associate editor
June: Labour rescues British economy. Prosperity is restored and 
happy, smiling people give thanks for the wonder of Gordon Brown.
July: Hell freezes over.
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PRIVATE EYE 1226    26.12.08 - 8.1.09
1. Brussels Sprouts
As it was foretold so it came to pass .  The Eye's predictions  that 
Ireland would vote again on the Lisbon Treaty proved uncannily 
accurate.  [since everybody else was predicting it too 'uncanny' is 
perhaps too strong a word -cs]

B ut the declaration made at the December 11-12 European summit 
[strictly speaking not a 'summit' but an 'EU Council meeting' -cs]  
about Ireland securing vital guarsantees, and thus responding to the 
wishes of those who voted against the treaty the first time round, 
were pure political theatre.

In fact, when Ireland votes again it will vote on exactly the same 
treaty  that it rejected before.  Not a single word will change.  The 
only serious concession granted to Ireland is that, rather than the 
cull of European Commissioners foreseen by the Treaty every European 
country will now keep an appointee in Brussels.  But the legal 
instrument allowing this will only be adopted at a later stage when 
Lisbon is in place.

On other issues such as Irish neutrality, Taoiseach Brian Cowen 
supposedly heroically wrested conceassions for his people.  But these 
are smoke and mirrors.  Particular suspicion hangs over the question 
of abortion, which Irish government surveys showed was a major 
concern for Lisbon naysayers.  But objective evidence for this is 
scant, and the Lisbon treaty anyway wouch not have touched on Irish 
law on this area.  Surely it couldn't be that this issue was raised 
just so Cowen could secure a guarantee on it, as part of the 
justification to vote on Lisbon `again? Surely not.  That would be a 
preposterous idea !

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2.   EU-phemisms
Climate Change Deal

EU Spokesman :  "EU members will implement cuts in emissions 
following noticeable climate change"

Translation:  "It'll be a cold day in hell before we actually do 
anything"