Friday, December 26, 2008
Will Corn Rise Again in 2009?
Commodities Confidential....
Reuters' Christine Stebbins reports on the unexpected end of the 2008 grain bubble and the outlook for '09.Just a year ago the debate about grain prices was simple: how high was high?
Continue here.
Huge global demand for grains, governments hoarding food, climate fears amid droughts, storms and floods -- basically every bullish factor one could imagine hit the markets.
The psychology of short supplies carried over to other commodities as well, especially industrial metals as China and India drew in a rapidly rising share of materials as their economies raced to modernize and transform.
The final element for the "perfect storm" sending commodities to stratospheric heights was the tsunami of Wall Street and other speculative money that, frustrated by stagnant stocks and bonds, finally bought into the commodities story.
The benchmark Reuters-Jefferies-CRB index .CRB of 19 commodity futures was at 358.71 on Dec. 31, 2007, up 17 percent for the year. It jumped another 32 percent to hit record high of 473.97 on July 3, 2008.
Then, as investors blinked, it was over. The index started sliding and by early December fell to a 6-1/2-year low of 208.58 -- down 56 percent from the midsummer highs.
The global economic crisis tied to dried-up bank credit -- the lifeblood of all markets -- rocked Wall Street but also rolled over commodities, bursting bubbles right and left.
Saturday, 27 December 2008
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