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HAPPY CHANUKAH! HAPPY NEW YEAR ========================== SHABBAT SHALOM ======   A PRC terrorist on the outskirts of Gaza City prepares to fire a rocket at southern Israel. Israel Completes Preparations for Gaza Offensive Amid Continuing Rocket Fire By Mark Lavie Associated Press Friday, December 26, 2008;   JERUSALEM, Dec. 25 -- Israel moved closer to invading the Gaza Strip, saying Thursday that it had wrapped up preparations for a broad offensive after Palestinian fighters fired about 100 rockets and mortar shells across the border in two days. Israel's foreign minister brushed off a call for restraint from Egypt's president, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made a direct appeal to Gaza's people to pressure their leaders to stop the barrages. But the attacks showed no signs of ending. By nightfall, three rockets and 15 mortar shells had exploded in Israel. Olmert issued his appeal in a rare interview with the Arabic-language satellite channel al-Arabiya, saying Israel would not hesitate to respond with force if the attacks continued. "I am telling them now, it may be the last minute, I'm telling them stop it. We are stronger," he said. Thursday's rocket fire was far less intense than the barrage of 80 rockets the previous day, and there were no reports of injuries. But Israeli leaders said the continued fire -- the most intense since Egypt brokered a cease-fire in June -- was unacceptable. One of the mortar shells landed at Israel's passenger crossing with Gaza just as a group of Palestinian Christians were going through on their way to the West Bank town of Bethlehem for Christmas celebrations, the military said. Another rocket exploded after nightfall in an industrial park south of the coastal city of Ashkelon, police said. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak invited Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to Cairo to discuss the possibility of renewing the truce, which expired last Friday. But by the time Livni arrived, she was in no mood to discuss a cease-fire, and she dismissed Mubarak's pleas for restraint. "Enough is enough," she said afterward. "When there's shooting, there's a response. Any state would react that way." In Israel, Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned that "whoever harms the citizens and soldiers of Israel will pay a heavy price." He did not elaborate. But defense officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing classified information, said the Israeli operation would probably begin with surgical airstrikes against rocket launchers and continue with a land invasion. Harsh weather conditions are hampering visibility and complicating air force missions, so the operation won't be launched until the skies clear, they added. Another complication is national elections set for Feb. 10. Both Barak and Livni are running for prime minister, and they are under heavy pressure from another candidate, opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu, to act. Netanyahu, who advocates tough action against the Palestinians, is the front-runner in the election, according to opinion polls. The barrages have caused no casualties over the past two days, but there has been property damage, and tens of thousands of Israelis near Gaza have been instructed to stay indoors. TV newscasts have been showing panic-stricken children. Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 after a 38-year occupation but still controls its border crossings, blockaded for months in response to the rocket attacks. The armed Islamist movement Hamas seized control of Gaza in June 2007, after routing forces loyal to Western-backed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.   w w w . h a a r e t z . c o m Hamas gunmen in the Gaza Strip. Stewing in their own juices By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff It took less than a week for Israel's decision makers to change their minds entirely. Exactly the same people - who last week presented convincing reasons to justify continuing the policy of restraint in the Gaza Strip, and expressed the fear that a large-scale military action would result in an expected imbroglio - have now changed their tune completely. It is doubtful whether even Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's lightning visit yesterday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo will lead to a turnabout at this point. Israel is about to retaliate fiercely to Hamas' attacks. The situation will not necessarily develop into an all-out war (at the moment, neither side appears to be interested in that), but the coming days will, so it seems, mark the end to restraint. There are several factors behind the change in policy. The central one, simply put, is the situation on the ground: Close to 200 Katyushas, Qassam rockets and mortar shells have been fired at the Negev since Hamas said it would not renew the tahadiyeh (lull) that had expired on December 19. The response on the part of the Israel Defense Forces, at least until yesterday around noon, was the epitome of restraint. The communities situated along the border with Gaza view the events of the past few days as a demonstration of terrible weakness on Israel's part, as a final renunciation by the state of the country's southern periphery. And things don't look much better from Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Nor can the political context be ignored. Until a short while ago, the kibbutzim of the Negev, whose members' homes have been riddled by shrapnel from the (120-mm., Iranian-produced) mortar shells of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, were considered practically the last bastions of support for Defense Minister Ehud Barak. And there are also practical considerations. Israeli intelligence assessments say that Hamas is interested in returning to a period of calm, but wishes to do so from a position of power, once it has imposed its conditions on Israel: first and foremost, significant improvements with regard to the opening of the border crossings into the Strip. Israel, say sources in the defense establishment, is likewise in need of a show of strength against Hamas, so it will not be dragged into the next cease-fire as the weak and frightened side in the deterrence equation. Barak and Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi have sounded determined in recent days. There will be a military operation. Its exact timing is a question of suitable operative conditions - that is, better weather and the possibility of achieving a surprise. Barak says he will no longer consent to the "ping-pong" of provocation and response that Hamas seeks to dictate. The next cease-fire must be total and will be undertaken only after the IDF makes its strength felt in the Gaza Strip. Ashkenazi is bitter about the politicians who are vying among themselves with aggressive declarations, and portraying the caution and responsibility shown by the General Staff as cowardice. Topple Hamas? The various statements by Israel's ministers reflect a good deal of confusion. Livni and Vice Premier Haim Ramon have spoken on several occasions about the need to topple the Hamas government in Gaza. Barak (and Ashkenazi, too) seems to feel that such a goal is unrealistic now. The main objective for the army is considerably more modest: exacting a significant price from Hamas, to prompt it to agree to return to the framework of the lull. The likely method for achieving this objective is not occupation of the Strip or the pursuit of every Qassam launcher. Close to the start of the operation, the army will make clear publicly that its goal is not complete cessation of the rocket fire, and that the barrages are likely to extend to even more communities as the operation proceeds. The IDF will seek to strike sites that Hamas defines as "assets," until the organization agrees to a renewed calm. The past two weeks have underscored one problem facing Israel: It is very difficult to prevent the launching of rockets and mortars in wintry weather. Visibility over Gaza is extremely poor in such conditions, making it hard for aircraft to identify their targets. (This problem is also currently being grappled with by those developing the Qassam interception system, which will likely not be ready for at least two more years.) Despite these limitations, it appears that the air force will still have a central role to play in any Israeli offensive. If the escalation continues, it could also develop into a ground operation. The Southern Command currently has at its disposal leading infantry brigades from Golani and the Paratroops. Still, Israel's leaders claim that they will avoid an all-out offensive, that occupation of Gaza is not an objective, and that Hamas is not interested in a major confrontation, either. But one has to wonder whether anyone has bothered to inform Hamas about this wonderfully rational scenario. The Palestinians have always had this annoying habit of not conforming to the nice plans the defense establishment has laid out for them. This week, Hamas did appear to be hallucinating, likening itself to its bigger and more dangerous sister, Hezbollah. The same type of slogans, threatening proclamations, videos of militants training - and even the same type of haughty TV broadcasters smilingly reporting on actions undertaken against the Zionist enemy. But Hamas also appeared to be repeating Hezbollah's mistakes from 2006, arrogantly believing that if the Israelis declare they don't want to reoccupy Gaza, then it is left with nearly unlimited room to maneuver. Even if it turns out that Hamas is right (which is highly unlikely), it is taking a tremendous gamble. A major air strike by Israel would apparently include bombardment of Hamas offices and institutions. A further deterioration to a large-scale frontal confrontation could end up costing Hamas its rule, although the IDF would surely suffer significant losses, too. Meanwhile, the tremendous importance that Hamas attaches to matters of honor and prestige cannot be discounted. A few mornings ago, while headlines in Israel reported on Hamas' readiness to consider a new cease-fire, the organization was behind the launching of over 60 rockets and mortars, intended to settle the score for an incident the previous evening, in which paratroops killed three Hamas men out to plant explosives near the separation fence. As in the past, Hamas is prepared to risk its rule just to avoid the perception of having surrendered to Israel. Mushir al-Masri, a Hamas parliament member in his early 30s, largely symbolizes his organization's arrogant side. On Wednesday, Al-Masri stood before a Palestinian crowd in a mosque during the funeral for the three men killed by the paratroops. He waved an admonishing finger at Israel with the other. "We will strike them in Sderot and Ashkelon, and what comes after Sderot and after that," he warned, echoing Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah's famous speech during the Second Lebanon War. The glittering gold watch on Al-Masri's left wrist detracted a bit from the message - given the modest public image that Hamas seeks to maintain, and the economic distress of most Gazans. On the eve of the escalation, Israel's foreign minister journeyed to Cairo, but Livni's visit seemed more like a PR and coordination mission than a last attempt at mediation. In Israel, the feeling is growing that Egypt would not be much opposed to a little blood being shed among Hamas. Cairo did not issue any denial following the report in the London newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi two days ago that Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman had told Major General (res.) Amos Gilad that Israel needs to teach Hamas a lesson. Relations between Egypt and the Hamas leadership in Gaza are tense and brimming with mutual resentments. Cairo is angry about the torpedoing of the Hamas-Fatah dialogue it had sponsored, and about what it saw as excessive arrogance on the part of Hamas. Gaza is angry that several Hamas officials have been imprisoned in Sinai for almost a year, and it is openly critical of Egypt. It appears that the Egyptians would prefer to let the parties stew in their own juices for a while before bringing all their weight to bear in order to attain a new cease-fire. /hasen/objects/pages/PrintArticleEn.jhtml?itemNo=1050155 Stop Hamas. Free Gilad Schalit Dec. 25, 2008 , THE JERUSALEM POST If the intimations of senior government officials are to be believed, the IDF is poised to embark on an assault against Hamas the like of which has not been seen since the Muslim extremists captured Gaza from Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah in June 2007. This week saw a relentless barrage of rockets and mortars slamming into homes and fields in southern Israel. More and more Israeli cities are now in range of enemy gunners. Even backbiting Israeli politicians who would rather concentrate on the February 10 Knesset elections find themselves obliged to fulfill their fiduciary responsibilities to the citizenry. The security cabinet appears to have determined - belatedly - that Israel can no longer tolerate the continued attacks. We ask: What took so long? HAMAS is the lord of Gaza and widely popular to boot. Fully expecting to supplant Abbas's PLO as the "sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people," it wishes to be treated accordingly. So what if it has rejected out of hand the international community's demand that the Palestinian leadership be committed to non-violence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations including the road map? The Islamists expect that their violent behavior - and exploitation of Palestinian "suffering" - will in due course compel the Quartet to modify its shaky principles. Hamas is even ready to throw Egyptian mediators a bone: It will agree to another temporary cease-fire with the hated Zionists in return for an uninterrupted flow of goods and supplies through Israeli and Egyptian crossing points. Of course, its industrial-scale smuggling of weapons via tunnels beneath the Philadelphi Corridor must proceed unmolested. Access to the sea must also be assured. Most crucially, Hamas reserves the unfettered right to use every centimeter of its territory - especially areas adjacent to Israel's border - to lay the groundwork for the next phase of its unyielding confrontation with "the Zionist enemy." Hamas is galled when the IDF interdicts tunnels being dug for future operations against Israel, or when our air force kills gunmen just as they are planting improvised explosive devices along the border fence. Over the horizon, Hamas looks to the day when it can compel Israel to allow it to operate with impunity against Fatah in the West Bank. IN THE face of this Palestinian obduracy and the likelihood it will be met by international appeasement, Jerusalem must decide on a single, unwavering public diplomacy message. In the face of outlandish demands to "lift the siege" and "end collective punishment," Israel's mantra needs to be: "Hamas must be stopped. Gilad Schalit must be freed." As a matter of grand strategy, Israel must not tolerate a hostile entity anywhere between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Hamas cannot be allowed to metastasize into a second Hizbullah. Israel's immediate objective must be to make it impossible for Hamas to govern in Gaza. Yet the choice is not between a massive land invasion and paralysis. The proper method of fighting Hamas is a methodical elimination of its political and military command and control. Concurrently, IDF artillery need to shoot back at the sources of enemy fire. Gaza has a border with Egypt and Cairo has lately invited those who want to send supplies to Gaza to use its Rafah crossing. But the crossing points from Israel into Gaza must be kept closed for the duration of the battle. Though the political campaign here is in full swing, we expect worthy politicians to put country first. Absent a strong home front, Ehud Olmert's lame-duck government and fragmented coalition will be unable to withstand the predictable international pressure to halt operations prematurely. Once begun, Israel's battle against Hamas must be terminated only when the Islamists lose their governing capacity. This may set the stage for Western-trained Fatah forces to reenter the Strip. Any resort to force by the IDF raises the possibility of unintended consequences. Israel's home front could be hit hard. Hizbullah could launch diversionary attacks. The Arab street in non-belligerent countries could roil. If enemy non-combatants are killed, nasty media coverage is certain. We may express regret; but we must not apologize. Whatever happens, we must be resolute: Hamas must be stopped. This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com /servlet/Satellite?cid=1230111705778&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Expected IDF op prompts Egypt to reinforce Gaza border security Dec. 26, 2008 HERB KEINON, YAAKOV KATZ, jpost.com staff and AP , THE JERUSALEM POST Egypt made preparations Friday for an expected IDF operation in Gaza by reinforcing security along its border with the Strip. Egyptian security forces are concerned that an IDF operation would lead to an attempt by Gazans to break through the Rafah border crossing, AFP reported. Meanwhile, although Israel stepped up its threatening rhetoric against them, Gaza terrorists intensified their attacks, firing at least 25 mortar shells at the South overnight Thursday and early Friday, one of which hit a building in the Eshkol region. No one was wounded in the attacks, but the building was damaged. Despite the mortar shell fire, Israel allowed humanitarian aid into Gaza on Friday morning. The IDF said approximately 90 trucks will deliver medicine, fuel, cooking gas and other vital goods into Gaza. The shipment includes a large donation of goods from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's wife as well as more than 400,000 liters of fuel and 200 tons of natural gas, the military said. Defense Minister Ehud Barak decided Thursday to open the Kerem Shalom and Sufa crossings to allow the transfer of the humanitarian supplies to Gaza. The shipment was originally scheduled to enter Gaza on Wednesday but was postponed due to the rocket fire. The Defense Ministry said the decision was made to permit the transfer after Barak received a number of requests from international organizations. National Infrastructures Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said the humanitarian shipment was meant to be a message to the people of Gaza that they were not Israel's enemy. "We are sending them a message that the Hamas leadership has turned them into a punching bag for everyone," he told Israel Radio. "It is a leadership that has turned school yards in rocket launching pads. This a leadership that does not care that the blood of its people will run in the streets." Meanwhile, Defense officials said Thursday that Barak and IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi were fully coordinated with regard to the need for an operation in Gaza - a limited one. On Sunday, Barak and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will conduct a series of meetings, together and separately, ahead of the expected IDF operation. Army Radio reported that the discussions would focus of the preparedness of the home front, the humanitarian situation in the Strip and diplomatic initiatives required to garner international support for military action. Diplomatic officials said Thursday that while there was broad international condemnation of the Hamas attacks on Israel, there was also a great deal of concern about the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. The officials also said that the barrage of rocket and mortar attacks over the last few days had not been covered that widely in the international press, which is currently focusing on Christmas holiday stories. Though an argument could be made that this would be a good time for a military operation, because much of the world is currently on vacation and not focusing on the Middle East, others say that because the world has not paid sufficient attention over the last two days to the pounding of the western Negev, any massive IDF attack now would seem inexplicable. This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com /servlet/Satellite?cid=1230111710874&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull