newnations.com
Monthly reports on finance, business, trade,
economics, & political analysis
NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 01 DECEMBER 2008
Monthly reports on finance, business, trade,
economics, & political analysis
NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 01 DECEMBER 2008
SWINGS AND ROUNDABOUTS
What a year, Q4 in particular, for swings and roundabouts! The prospect of solutions to continuing world political problems, and better all round government, via Barak Obama, a refreshing politician with a clear mandate for change; at the same time as the collapse of the world's financial markets, with its knock-on effects on the system of a free-market economy, employment, growth and the prospects of the good life.
We have something to say about both of these fundamental changes to the world.
Maybe it will all be better in sixteen years time
The NIC comprising all sixteen US Intelligence agencies have published their assessment of how the world may appear in 2025. The prophecy game is chancy by definition and predictions beyond next week or even tomorrow, highly risky, but what the NIC have done is to identify trends and project those forward. What we have found fascinating is the relentless march of the mercenaries in military affairs. Iraq now has the same number of 'Security Guards' as Coalition soldiers. We report that the first ship of a 'private navy' is currently steaming towards the Somalian coast to take on the pirates.
The NIC comprising all sixteen US Intelligence agencies have published their assessment of how the world may appear in 2025. The prophecy game is chancy by definition and predictions beyond next week or even tomorrow, highly risky, but what the NIC have done is to identify trends and project those forward. What we have found fascinating is the relentless march of the mercenaries in military affairs. Iraq now has the same number of 'Security Guards' as Coalition soldiers. We report that the first ship of a 'private navy' is currently steaming towards the Somalian coast to take on the pirates.
Their reference to organised crime take-overs of certain governments is a real prospect. We nominate Bulgaria as the European government most in danger of going that way.
The evidence the NIC produce brings to centre stage the prospects of 'water wars' and we comment that it is the middle east again, that will be right up there in any such struggle.
We round out the year with individual Updates to the nations we report, all of whom are to a greater or lesser extent affected by what has happened in Q4 2008
Talking to Iran
We review the prospects through the prism of the incoming administration. There is a big potential upside not only in the obvious, of resolving the nuclear predicament, but in the important area of transiting oil and gas from central Asia to the west, without its going through Russia who might, on past form be tempted to turn off the taps.
We review the prospects through the prism of the incoming administration. There is a big potential upside not only in the obvious, of resolving the nuclear predicament, but in the important area of transiting oil and gas from central Asia to the west, without its going through Russia who might, on past form be tempted to turn off the taps.
North Korea
On December 1st, perhaps as you read this, there is a massive spat going on between both North and South Korea, which we explain.
On December 1st, perhaps as you read this, there is a massive spat going on between both North and South Korea, which we explain.
Pakistan Back From The Brink
A month ago it looked as though they were going down the tubes, but the IMF have done the necessary. Still this nuclear armed country is no great distance from being a failed state, and deserves the utmost attention from the new administration.
A month ago it looked as though they were going down the tubes, but the IMF have done the necessary. Still this nuclear armed country is no great distance from being a failed state, and deserves the utmost attention from the new administration.
India Reeling after Mumbai massacre
As we go to press too little is known to make any useful analysis. Already we have heard from many of the British tabloids that several of the terrorists were from UK; and from India that they were all from Pakistan. We will be commenting when there is something useful to add to the observation of how truly terrible these publicity-seeking horrors have become.
Bangladesh Report on Islamic menace
We feature an article setting out what the authors claim to be a dangerous, menacing situation, building up in Bangladesh.
Afghanistan is heralded as Obama's number one Foreign Policy concern
We hope that is true because an early decision is paramount - but the wrong decision would be so easy to make. Newnations from its base of having produced 84 monthly reports on this country, has distinct from this monthly update, made a Special Report – an Overview of a kind which we hope Obama's advisors will be providing for him.
As we go to press too little is known to make any useful analysis. Already we have heard from many of the British tabloids that several of the terrorists were from UK; and from India that they were all from Pakistan. We will be commenting when there is something useful to add to the observation of how truly terrible these publicity-seeking horrors have become.
Bangladesh Report on Islamic menace
We feature an article setting out what the authors claim to be a dangerous, menacing situation, building up in Bangladesh.
Afghanistan is heralded as Obama's number one Foreign Policy concern
We hope that is true because an early decision is paramount - but the wrong decision would be so easy to make. Newnations from its base of having produced 84 monthly reports on this country, has distinct from this monthly update, made a Special Report – an Overview of a kind which we hope Obama's advisors will be providing for him.
The debate has already taken off. One prominent US commentator is advising Obama not to reinforce but to withdraw completely. Kissinger is saying, make it a government of its provinces with a nominal federal capital, since central government has never worked there. For our part we argue that just a military reinforcement, without a powerful political strategy alongside, runs the risk of another 'Vietnam' humiliation.
Young Presidents
We welcome the prospect of a meeting between Obama and Medvedev and hope that they can look at the world without all the baggage of history weighing them down.
We welcome the prospect of a meeting between Obama and Medvedev and hope that they can look at the world without all the baggage of history weighing them down.
Iraq still Uncertain
Iraq was supposed to be peaceful and harmonious to coincide with George Bush’s end of term, but it hasn’t worked out like that. Meanwhile, it looks as though the next stage of the US tenancy there will be agreed before the UN mandate expires with the end of the year, but…. it is subject to a public referendum some time during next year, so it will remain uncertain.
Iraq was supposed to be peaceful and harmonious to coincide with George Bush’s end of term, but it hasn’t worked out like that. Meanwhile, it looks as though the next stage of the US tenancy there will be agreed before the UN mandate expires with the end of the year, but…. it is subject to a public referendum some time during next year, so it will remain uncertain.
Not on the Bandwaggon
We name two of the countries we report who are not best pleased about Obama becoming president, and see trouble for themselves. We don’t include North Korea because we doubt that they knew an election was going on… besides what’s an election?
We name two of the countries we report who are not best pleased about Obama becoming president, and see trouble for themselves. We don’t include North Korea because we doubt that they knew an election was going on… besides what’s an election?
British Foreign Policy
We mourn the fact that the land of Palmerston, Canning, Disraeli, Gladstone, and Churchill has nothing more than a ‘me-too’ foreign policy, dependent on whatever the US is doing or saying at any time. We consider Gordon Brown’s Mansion House speech - the traditional annual platform for Britain s Foreign policy and our verdict is …pathetic! As to the ridiculous situation David Miliband is pursuing, on Georgia’s application for NATO Membership, the outgoing US administration is now tying itself in knots. Britain was strongly supporting the previous US policy of admitting Georgia to Nato membership, despite the evidence now in the public domain of Saakashvili’s adventurism. The US has throttled back on that, but Britain now has to choose between as usual, walking carefully in their footsteps, or sticking to its original position of admitting Georgia (knowing they won’t get in), or doing the intelligent thing and supporting Germany and France who have generally represented ‘the voice of reason’ during the eight Bush years.
We mourn the fact that the land of Palmerston, Canning, Disraeli, Gladstone, and Churchill has nothing more than a ‘me-too’ foreign policy, dependent on whatever the US is doing or saying at any time. We consider Gordon Brown’s Mansion House speech - the traditional annual platform for Britain s Foreign policy and our verdict is …pathetic! As to the ridiculous situation David Miliband is pursuing, on Georgia’s application for NATO Membership, the outgoing US administration is now tying itself in knots. Britain was strongly supporting the previous US policy of admitting Georgia to Nato membership, despite the evidence now in the public domain of Saakashvili’s adventurism. The US has throttled back on that, but Britain now has to choose between as usual, walking carefully in their footsteps, or sticking to its original position of admitting Georgia (knowing they won’t get in), or doing the intelligent thing and supporting Germany and France who have generally represented ‘the voice of reason’ during the eight Bush years.
China and Tibet
With negotiations over and CHINA lambasting Tibet’s representatives, we follow the story to date.
With negotiations over and CHINA lambasting Tibet’s representatives, we follow the story to date.
We have a new feature, Hall of Shame
This month we look at an imprisoned immediate past president of a so-called democracy who has not been charged or tried. He is on Hunger strike!
This month we look at an imprisoned immediate past president of a so-called democracy who has not been charged or tried. He is on Hunger strike!
Much more of course than these selected snippets to see the old year out.
Posts
