TELEGRAPH 30.12.08
The Tories' greatest asset is that they are not in power right now
A large majority of voters are convinced that the Labour Government
bears much of the responsibility for the current economic crisis.
By Anthony King
The great thing about the Westminster village is that it remains a
hot-house even in the coldest weather. Rumours abound and, depending
on which side of the House of Commons you sit on, waves of euphoria
alternate with the deepest depression. Most politicians claim to pay
no attention to the opinion polls. In truth, many do little else.
Only a few weeks ago Labour backbenchers were cock-a-hoop as the gap
in the polls between Labour and the Tories appeared to be narrowing.
Now the Tories' tails are up as the gap is evidently widening again.
Last month the Conservatives were only four points ahead. Now,
according to YouGov's latest survey for The Daily Telegraph, they are
seven points ahead – exactly where they were at the beginning of this
year.
Which of the two parties has the better grounds for optimism? The
short answer is the Tories.
The Conservatives have now led Labour by varying amounts for 15
consecutive months, ever since last year's fiasco of the general
election that never was. Moreover, according to YouGov, the Tories
have had the support of 40 per cent or more of voters throughout the
whole of those 15 months. They have not been in such a strong
position for so long since the late 1980s, before the poll tax
terminated Margaret Thatcher's career.
To be sure, the findings of YouGov's latest survey point to a swing
from Labour to the Tories of only 5 per cent since the 2005 election,
and if a swing as small as that were repeated at a general election
next year or in 2010, simple arithmetic suggests the Conservatives
would probably find themselves the largest single party but without
an overall majority.
But the arithmetic next time will probably not be simple. For
example, Labour during most of the past decade, has benefited from
the fact that, when push came to shove at a general election,
thousands of voters who would otherwise have backed the Liberal
Democrats or one of the minor parties have chosen to vote tactically.
They have backed Labour rather than see the Tories return to power.
On the eve of the last election, no fewer than 62 per cent of Liberal
Democrats told YouGov that, if they had to choose, they would prefer
to see Labour under Tony Blair re-elected. Only 22 per cent opted for
Michael Howard's Tories. Labour's lead among Lib Dems was a massive
40 points.
However, from many Liberal Democrats' point of view, the Tories under
David Cameron are an altogether different proposition. Asked to make
the same choice in the latest survey, only 45 per cent opted for
Labour, with 34 per cent opting for the Tories. Labour's lead among
Lib Dems is thus down from 40 points only three-and-a-half years ago
to 11 points today. An electoral cushion that New Labour strategists
used to rely on has turned into a much harder chair.
Moreover, all the evidence indicates that a large majority of the
electorate long ago lost confidence in Labour as a governing party.
Ever since the last war, YouGov and its predecessor organisations
have asked people at regular intervals whether they approve or
disapprove of the incumbent government's record to date. The last
time more people approved than disapproved of the present Labour
Government's record was more than five years ago and the proportion
who disapprove of it has averaged more than 60 per cent – sometimes
approaching 70 per cent – for most of the past two years.
The same goes for Labour prime ministers. Tony Blair was held in low
esteem during the last phase of his premiership, and the numbers for
Gordon Brown now bear a striking resemblance to Mr Blair's numbers
then. At the moment only 30 per cent of YouGov's respondents profess
themselves satisfied with Mr Brown as Prime Minister – while 60 per
cent are dissatisfied. The remaining 10 per cent are not sure what
they think. Mr Brown did enjoy a brief honeymoon when he took over in
the summer of last year, but that state of bliss lasted only a matter
of weeks.
In other words, given the economic downturn and voters' long-standing
doubts about New Labour, it was hardly surprising that Labour's
fortunes plummeted during the spring and summer of this year and that
the Tories' forged ahead.
Nowadays a substantial Tory lead should be regarded as normal. What
is more surprising is Labour's partial revival during the past two or
three months.
The explanation for it almost certainly lies not in any long-term
trend back to Labour but in Mr Brown's well-publicised journeys to
world capitals and the Tories' evident loss of direction, with Mr
Cameron apparently siding with the Prime Minister before changing his
mind and condemning him for mortgaging Britain's future.
According to YouGov's surveys in October and November, a majority of
voters thought Mr Brown was handling the immediate financial crisis
well while the Tories were dithering and could not make up their
minds how to handle it.
However, when we look back in a few months' time, Labour's spurt this
autumn, which has already been partially reversed, is almost certain
to look like a temporary blip in a long downward spiral. Next year
will bring not only a stagnant housing market but home repossessions
on a large scale, bankruptcies, reduced industrial output, factory
closures, boarded-up shops in every high street, more expensive
holidays abroad and mounting unemployment – with steeply increased
taxes in prospect. Those in debt will suffer, but millions of
conscientious savers will suffer just as badly, with the implosion of
the stock market and interest rates at almost derisory low levels.
Under those circumstances, it will be a near-miracle if Mr Brown and
his Government prosper politically. As this year's acute economic
crisis becomes next year's chronic crisis, the Tories have no need to
be subtle. All they have to say is: "You got us into this mess and
it's clear you can't get us out of it." YouGov's monthly findings
already show that large majorities of voters are convinced Mr Brown
bears "much of the responsibility for allowing borrowing and lending
in this country to get out of hand in the first place".
Needless to say, the Conservatives' greatest asset is that they are
not in power. Fortunately for them, their greatest asset almost
certainly trumps their greatest liability, which is that few voters
have any idea how the Tories will comport themselves if and when they
regain power. For the foreseeable future, the devil that voters don't
know looks like being more attractive than the one they do.
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University
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