Ynet.com - December 21, 2008
So whoʼs telling the truth?
Is Russia indeed supplying advanced missile system to Iran, as Tehran claims?
Ron Ben-Yishai
Part 1 of analysis
Is Russia indeed supplying advanced missile system to Iran, as Tehran claims?
Ron Ben-Yishai
Part 1 of analysis
So who should we believe? Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his ministry's spokesman, who only a few weeks ago declared that Russia will not be selling Iran the advanced S-300 missile system, or deputy chairman of Iranʼs parliamentary commission on national security, Esmaeil Kosari, who on Sunday announced that Russia already started implementing the deal?
According to Kosari, Russia is already transferring to Iran components of the advanced interception system, which according to experts could greatly hinder an Israeli or American aerial strike aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program.
Seemingly, one of the sides is lying, either the Iranians or the Russians. Yet a thorough examination of the official declarations on the subject, as well as publications in the Russian and Iranian media raises yet another possibility: It is certainly possible that both sides - in technical terms at least - are telling the truth. But not the whole truth.
The explanation to this has to do with the fact that any such missile system is made up of several basic components. Those include radar, a control center, the missiles and their launch vehicles, peripheral equipment, and a logistic system.
It is very possible that the Russians are not providing the Iranians with the entire system for the time being, but rather, for example, only the radar and other peripheral equipment. The modern and advanced radar of the system, should it be possessed by Iran, already upgrades its air defenses. It also allows for the operational deployment of the missiles and other system components within a short period of time, if and when Russia decides to supply the Iranians with the entire S-300 system.
Information received in the West and published by the media informs us that Iranian operators are already training in Russia on using the S-300 system. A hint that this is in fact what the Russians are doing can be found in the words of the Iranian deputy chairman of the national security committee. Kosari told the Iranian news agency Sunday that his country is starting to receive components of the system. He did not say that the missiles themselves have arrived.
And so, the Russians were able to tell a Western source less than a week ago that they are not supplying the missiles, yet in practice also meet their obligations in line with the missile acquisition deal signed by President Putin and Iran's defense minister exactly a year ago in Moscow.
The Russians conducted themselves in a similar fashion in the deal signed with Tehran for supplying fuel to the nuclear reactor they built for the Iranians in Bushehr. There is no reason why the Russians will not do the same this time around.
We must keep in mind that despite the delays in the abovementioned deal, Russia ultimately delivered the goods. We can assume that this will be the case with the S-300 missiles as well - on condition, of course, that the Iranians pay the full price of the deal, estimated at $1 billion.
| Bad news, good news Russian missile system sold to Iran problematic, but not most advanced Ron Ben-Yishai Part 2 of analysis The Russians are claiming that the system is also capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at a range of more than 40 kilometers. The S-300 system's guidance system is very similar in its performance and characteristics to the American Patriot missile system, which is considered sophisticated. The missile is ready for use in a closed-off area, and there is no need to test it for 10 years. The entire system is also very quick to deploy. The implication of this is that the moment the system is possessed by Iran and becomes operational, Israel's and America's ability to attack and neutralize Iran's missile and nuclear systems will be greatly eroded. This is the bad news. The better news is that the Russians apparently sold the export model of the system, S-300pmu 1, which is less sophisticated and boasts inferior performance compared to the system's newest model, known as Favorit. The system's development started about 30 years ago, and we know that three or four different models of it exist. The Russians do not sell the most advanced model to foreigners, for fear that the technology would make its way to the West. On the other hand, S-300 systems of the model sold to Iran were also sold to many other countries in the world, including China, India, and even Cyprus. The US possesses a model of this system sold by Belarus, and Turkey is about to receive the same system from the Russians. Both countries maintain tight military cooperation with Israel. These facts point to the theoretical possibility that Israel would develop methods and means to overcome the impressive capabilities of the S-300 system, which Syria is also negotiating for with the Russians. However, it appears that the mission of finding a response to this system is not easy. The proof of this is the effort undertaken by Prime Minister Olmert in his last visit to Russia to convince Russian President Medvedev to refrain from selling the system to Iran and Syria. For the same reason, Defense Minister Ehud Barak urgently dispatched senior security official Amos Gilad to Moscow last week. Yet another question is why Russia ignores Israel's pleas, Washington's requests, and even its own declarations - while signaling to Iran that it is willing to provide the system, or at latest major components of it. There are apparently three reasons for this:
| |||
Posts
