Britannia Radio

Dr. Aaron Lerner

 

I can well appreciate that to an outsider this sounds impossible rather
than absurd. In fact, an outsider might think that this is some kind of
sophisticated Israeli conspiracy. But it isn't.

So here goes with the painful truth:

#1. The decision makers in Israel are fully aware that an arrangement to
stop the smuggling that relies on Egypt is doomed to failure. They may make
excuses that this time it will be different and that lately the Egyptians
have been trying harder but they know that this is exactly what the argument
was on numerous previous occasions. And they know that at the very same
time that these soothing reports were being issued the sheer volume of
smuggling traffic going through the tunnels was so huge that it was clear
that Egyptian efforts against the smuggling were nothing more than a drop in
the bucket.

#2. The decision makers in Israel also are fully aware that Egypt is
hypersensitive of criticism on this matter. So much so that each time we
bring this issue to a head the Egyptians make it clear that if we continue
pushing it that our very sensitive and important relations could be
jeopardized.

#3. The decision makers are also aware that there is only so much a third
party such as American observers/advisor/technicians/whatever can do on
sovereign Egyptian soil - whatever may be written down on paper. And that
American-Egyptian relations could also face the same dilemma as Israel has
in #2, thus further limiting the efficacy of a third party solution on
Egyptian soil.

And now for is the most disturbing part of the painful truth:

#4. Despite all of the above, as of at least the earlier part of the week,
the decision makers in Israel have not even walked through the option of
redeploying in a widened Philadelphi Corridor as a solution.

That's right.

It isn't that they held a detailed discussion and concluded that after due
consideration that this wasn't a workable solution. They never held a
discussion considering the option.

And that's a pity.

Because many of the very same decision makers who don't want to consider the
option of redeploying in a widened Philadelphi Corridor are trying to come
up with a way to finish this operation in a way that makes it clear that
Hamas didn't win. And if the operation ends with Hamas people waiving
their rifles and making v signs but also Israeli flags fluttering over the
Philadelphi Corridor then the winner will be clear to all: Israel. And the
loser will be clear: Hamas - for causing Israel to retake the Philadelphi
Corridor.

What will ultimately happen? Will developments suck Israel into doing the
right thing even if the decision makers didn't intend to do the right thing?

Possibly.

Consider the following:

While Israeli officials are now saying that a problematic UN Security
Council Resolution calling for a ceasefire can't dictate what Israel does on
matters of national security, the pressure will be on to do achieve
something within hours rather than days, weeks or months.

And the special status of the Philadelphi Corridor gives Israel enough
"wiggle room" to grab it, "adjust it" and hold it indefinitely while
asserting that the withdrawal of forces from the "Palestinian Gaza Strip"
constitutes fulfillment of the UNSC resolution.

 

Disturbingly stupid remarks by Amos Gilad: Will know if smuggling when rockets fire

Dr. Aaron Lerner                   Date: 11 January 2009

In a live interview broadcast on Israel Radio this morning Amos Gilad, the
head of the Defense Ministry's political-security branch who is handling
anti-smuggling arrangements with Egypt, said that the pubic details of the
results of the talks are not particularly relevant and that Israel would
know if there is smuggling if rockets are fired from Gaza.

It would appear that as far as Gilad is concerned, should the
Olmert-Livni-Barak team he represents strike an arrangement with Egypt,
critics of the arrangement should have no ability to criticize it and the
failure of the arrangement can only be determined when Hamas fires the
rockets it smuggles in.

For all practical purposes, Hamas can smuggle in rockets that can reach
Haifa and that isn't a real problem until they are launched.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il