Friday, January 02, 2009
Notable Predictions for 2009
Israel Gets Rid Of Iran's Nuclear Threat
Will Israel use its altercation with the Iranian-backed Hamas as a stepping stone toward a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities? The signs are that an Obama Administration, committed to "tough diplomacy," will be less likely to let Israel take matters into its own hands and strike Tehran as it did Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981.
Lack of U.S. support would make such airstrikes more difficult, and leave Israel even more vulnerable politically on the world stage. With the Jewish state just this week sending warplanes to annihilate Hamas terrorists, defying heavy international pressure for a cease-fire, it seems clear Israel won't hesitate to defend itself.
Should Bibi Netanyahu and the Likud Party return to power in coming elections, Hamas — and its patron, Iran — might be in bigger trouble. Israel might be tempted to go for broke, taking out Iran's burgeoning nuclear threat rather than letting Tel Aviv go up in a mushroom cloud.
China Falls Into Recession
After decades of stunning 10% GDP growth, China's economy stumbled late in 2008. It will continue to slow in 2009 — and possibly beyond. The main trigger for their slump: Soaring energy prices during early 2008, and a steep decline in U.S. demand for China's goods.
In 2007, China posted a $262 billion trade surplus, most of it rung up with the U.S., which ran a $709 billion trade deficit the same year. China has a pile of nearly $1.8 trillion in reserves, thanks mainly to its persistent trade surpluses. But that might shrink as its economy moves into a slowdown and China invests money overseas.
This will have a major impact. Already 20 million people a year leave farms and rural areas of China to find work and a better life in the big cities. If China grows by 5% or less over the next year or so, it won't create enough jobs and will face serious social pressures that could break into open violence. In 2007, China experienced at least 85,000 acts of rebellion, usually put down quickly and brutally.
Despite its rapid growth, China still only ranks No. 81 on the U.N.'s human development index, a gauge that combines health, education and income. Things are far worse for the more than half of China's 1.3 billion people who live in rural areas. If they tire of communist rule and endemic corruption, things could get very ugly.
Given China's dilemma, its best hope might lie with Wal-Mart
Friday, 2 January 2009
IBD's 2009 Predictions include the following:
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