Friday, 9 January 2009

 Home truths from the Czechs

Friday, 9 January, 2009 3:08 PM
From:
Gordon Brown is like a wounded bull at a Corrida, putting his head  
down and charging wildly ahead   So it’s unlikely that he’ll take a 
blind bit of notice!

But he should do or we’ll end up like Ireland.  (see “The irish could 
always devalue the (renewed) punt” just sent)

xxxxxxxxxxx cs
===================
FINANCIAL TIMES     9.1.09
Czech minister warns EU of debt risk from stimulus plan
    By Tony Barber in Prague

A European Union fiscal stimulus plan may harm the ability of some of 
the 27 member nations to refinance debt, the Czech finance minister 
said yesterday.

Miroslav Kalousek, whose country took over the EU presidency on 
January 1, said members were divided between advocates of the €200bn 
($274bn, £181bn) extra deficit spending and those insisting on fiscal 
discipline.

EU leaders approved the stimulus last month, leaving it largely up to 
each government to decide how much to boost their economy by 
increasing budget deficits.

Some hard-hit countries, such as Ireland, Spain and the UK, are 
willing to let the deficits rise substantially, while others, such as 
Belgium, Germany and the Czech Republic, emphasise control of public 
finances.

Mr Kalousek said: "There is no way of concealing the risks . . . 
attached to the expansion policy by means of which some countries 
want to tackle the crisis."

An increase in deficit spending often necessitates issuing more 
government debt. Investors have shown a strong appetite for less 
risky bonds in recent months, but there are signs the appeal is 
waning. Germany failed to attract enough bids to sell €6bn of 10-year 
bonds on Wednesday - an ominous sign for governments that practise 
less fiscal discipline.

Mr Kalousek said: "Some say this is a crisis that has to be tackled 
through expansion. Others say the crisis should be accompanied by 
even more rigorous discipline and that, if discipline isn't adhered 
to, we'll have problems refinancing debts."

He said Czech public finances were in good order, but "often I'm 
woken at night by a nightmare - how am I to refinance the debt?"

It was important the EU fiscal stimulus should be short term and 
require a ra-pid return to discipline once the crisis ended, he said.

"This world crisis was not triggered by the financial policies of 
this or that government. It was a total crisis of confidence on the 
banking and financial markets," said Mr Kalousek. "For that reason I 
think it's extremely important that the lack of confidence should not 
be made even worse by unreliable policies on the part of certain 
countries."

He also cautioned against regulatory overreaction to the financial 
turmoil, saying: "History teaches that abrupt political decisions can 
be of more harm than use. I have no reason to believe it will be 
different this time."

The Czech minister's opinions carry weight as he will chair the 
monthly meetings of EU finance ministers between now and June. He 
stressed he would be impartial and always seek compromises among the 
group rather than impose his personal policy preferences.