Tuesday, 27 January 2009

 Middle East Strategic Information (MESI) Analysis
No. 11  January 27, 2009
  
 MESI Articles of the Week
 
 

Averting Iranian Influence in Post-War Gaza: The Rehabilitation Issue
Shimon Shapira

It is of prime importance to prevent Iran from acquiring influence in post-war Gaza through any assistance programs. Iran is already positioning itself for influence in post-war Gaza. On January 14, 2009, the Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Akbar Mohtashami, arrived in Lebanon heading a 40-man delegation in order to direct Iranian support for Hamas. The main objective for Israel and the international community should be to deny Iran the attainment of this objective and to transform the Palestinian Authority, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, into the principal factor, along with Egypt, entrusted with the rehabilitation work in Gaza. More..

The George Mitchell Appointment: The Tactics of "Symmetrical Negotiations" May Not Work in "Asymmetrical Conflicts"
Lenny Ben-David

The Middle East that Mitchell will confront today is much changed from the one he wrestled with eight years ago. And the parties to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict bear little resemblance to the antagonists he dealt with in Northern Ireland. The 2001 Mitchell Report was issued years before Hamas' coup in Gaza and its open fealty to Iran. Hamas remains dedicated to Israel's destruction. Its alliance with Iran and its affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood mark Hamas as an enemy of moderate Arab regimes such as Egypt and Jordan. As such, Hamas cannot be compared to the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which wanted to throw the British out of Northern Ireland but had no aspirations to capture London. Moreover, while the IRA had limited international contacts, it was not a part of a European-wide network and was not backed by a petrodollar-rich, oil-producing country like Iran, which was also on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons, and thereby emboldening its regional surrogates. More...

Profile of an African Hezbollah
Dan Brett

It is Ashura Day and thousands of uniformed men goosestep under an Nigerian sun. At the front of the parade, portraits of political idols - Khomeini, Khamenei and Nasrallah - are held aloft as the followers express their devotion to Tehran's Weliyat-e Faqih, "source of truth". Hundreds of thousands of Shi'ites chanted "Death to Israel, death to America, death to England!" while waving Palestinian, Hamas and Hezbollah flags. The Shi'ite radical Shaykh Ibrahim Zakzaky, bedecked with his crisp white turban and surrounded by grave-looking bodyguards in black suits and dark glasses, implores his followers to seek martyrdom in the war against the enemies of the form of Islam, the Jews, which is being dictated by political mullahs thousands of miles away. Yet, this is not Iran and it is far from the Middle East. Welcome to the new centre of Shi'ite extremism, Kaduna state in northern Nigeria. And according to one former Iranian official, it is poised to strike Western interests on Iran's behalf. More...

Amnesty International Versus IDF Combat Ethics
Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan D. Halevi

The Amnesty International human rights organization once again passed tendentious and selective judgment on IDF combat ethics. The organization condemned the warning phone calls that the Israeli forces made to Gaza residents in order to minimize the number of civilian casualties during its missions. Amnesty claimed these warnings intended to sow terror and were a violation of international law. Amnesty International and other human rights organizations have often ignored the IDF's dilemmas and its strong history of morality, while largely ignoring attacks on Israel by terrorist organizations. The IDF acted correctly and in an unprecedented fashion when it passed on advance warning in such a manner. It would have been proper for Amnesty that dubs itself a human rights organization, to praise IDF conduct and recommend to other armies to act in a fashion similar to that of the IDF. More..