Monday, January 12, 2009
Analysis: Testing Time for Turkey
By Yigal Schleifer
Israel's operation in Gaza is proving to be both a test and an opportunity for its strongest ally in the Middle East.
Turkey is trying to position itself as a regional Mideast mediator, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s harsh criticism of Israel and rising popular anger in the country against Israeli actions could strain relations with Jerusalem and compromise Ankara's ability to play the role of honest broker.
For the past few years, Turkey has sought to establish itself as a regional power broker, strengthening ties with neighbors it previously had kept at an arm's length and even bringing Israel and Syria together for a round of secret meetings in Istanbul.
Shuttle Diplomacy
Erdogan has been conducting his own shuttle diplomacy during the Israel-Hamas conflict, visiting Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia earlier this month in a bid to broker a cease-fire between the foes. At the same time, however, his criticism of Israel has been significantly stronger than even most Arab leaders.
Israel is “perpetrating inhuman actions which would bring it to self-destruction,” Erdogan said at a recent municipal election campaign rally. “Allah will sooner or later punish those who transgress the rights of innocents."
Erdogan also called Israeli actions a "crime against humanity" and reportedly is refusing to take phone calls from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert with his nation's troops in Gaza.
The Turkish newspaper Vatan noted that the only other leaders in the Middle East to use language like Erdogan's have been regional firebrands Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Muammar Gadhafi, the presidents of Iran and Libya, respectively.
Conduit to Israel
The question is whether Erdogan's statements have undercut Turkey's ability to deliver on what it insists is the added value it brings to the Middle Eastern negotiating table: its ability to serve as a conduit to Israel.
"Erdogan's choice of language presents Turkey as being ready to carry Hamas' demands to the U.N. Security Council and as being unable to remain an equal distance from both sides,” Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Bilgi University, wrote recently in the daily Sabah.
“This depicts Ankara as a less effective player than it really is and than it must be,” he wrote. "It restricts Turkey's ability to play an active role in what happens. It damages Turkey's credibility."
Still, experts say that mutual interests -- particularly over regional security issues -- will likely keep Turkey-Israel relations from rupturing. On the eve of the Gaza operation, which began Dec. 27, the two countries signed a $141 million deal in which Israel will provide the Turkish air force with airborne space imagery intelligence systems over the next four years.
"Long term, I don't see much impact," said Lale Sariibrahimoglu, a military analyst based in Ankara. "Both nations need each other."
Cold Atmosphere
Sami Kohen, a columnist with the daily Milliyet and a veteran observer of Turkish foreign policy, agrees.
“There might be a kind of a cold atmosphere between the two countries for perhaps weeks to come, but I don't anticipate any further action by Turkey in terms of reducing relations, particularly in terms of diplomatic ties,” Kohen said.
Indeed, despite his strong rhetoric, Erdogan has rejected calls by members of the Turkish Parliament to suspend Turkey's ties with Israel.
"I would like to remind those who call for Turkey to freeze ties with Israel that we administer the Republic of Turkey, not a grocery market," Erdogan recently told parliament.
Erdogan's reaction to Israel's Gaza operation is based on real anger that his efforts of the past few years to bridge divides in the Middle East -- particularly between Israel and Syria -- may be going up in smoke as a result of the Gaza operation. But there is also a domestic component to his response.
Angry Reaction
Turks have reacted angrily to Israel’s actions, with large protests taking place nearly every day around Turkey. Even a basketball game in Ankara between Turkish and Israeli had to be called off after protesters stormed the court.
"This is the first time that the public reaction has been so widespread,” Kohen noted. “It's very intensive this time. There haven't been such widespread and spontaneous anti-Israel sentiments before.”
“It's not just the Islamic circles,” he added. “It's also the secularists and the nationalists. The protests have been representative of the whole of Turkish society.”
Meanwhile, Jewish community leaders in Turkey say they are concerned that the strong anti-Israel sentiment is also turning anti-Semitic.
Anti-Israel Billboards
Dayanisma Vakfi, an Islamic group, has been putting up graphic billboards all over Istanbul showing a bloody and smoldering baby's shoe. Written next to the shoe in big letters are the words, "You cannot be the children of Moses" and, in smaller words, “Thou shalt not kill.”
A Jewish community official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “We are worried about the combination of all the biting, scathing items in the press that are coming out and the personal reactions that we are seeing."
With Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) facing nationwide municipal elections in March, the government's relations with Israel could be a liability.
Placards have been appearing at protests showing Erdogan and Olmert shaking hands and accusing the AKP of "collaborating" with Israel.
But Erdogan may also find himself walking a tightrope when it comes to distancing Turkey from Israel. Ankara has long depended on Israel to act as a conduit to Washington and to American Jewish organizations that frequently have acted as a kind of surrogate lobby for Turkey in Washington. In the past, Jewish organizations have been instrumental in helping Turkey block efforts to introduce resolutions in Congress recognizing Armenian genocide claims.
"There is real anger with Erdogan on Capital Hill and among people who follow Turkey in Washington," said a Washington-based consultant who closely monitors Turkish affairs. "Nobody is threatening anything right now or knows if there are going to be repercussions, but this is going to have an effect."
The consultant added, "There is a sense that Erdogan's used up a lot of good will."Hadley on Iran
Iran remains the top problem for the United States in the Middle East, according to U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley. At a speech in Washington about U.S. foreign policy, Hadley spoke of the difficulties the Iranian regime continues to pose, difficulties that must be confronted by the upcoming Obama administration:
"The biggest challenge in this region is Iran. Negotiations with Iran, as some have proposed, without leverage on Iran will not produce a change in Iranian behavior or advance U.S. interests. The outgoing administration and its international partners will leave the incoming team with significantly increased leverage on Iran. The issue is how the new team will use this leverage to produce a different Iranian policy on its nuclear program, terrorism and Middle East peace."
In an interview with the Associated Press, Hadley said it "would be foolish to talk without leverage, because talking and negotiating without leverage won't get you a deal that will advance your interests."
Hadley said that the successful efforts of the United States in recent years to strengthen ties with Europe have made it possible for the Obama administration to be able to enforce tougher sanctions on Iran in order to pressure the regime to change its destructive policies.
Hadley said that the biggest threat to the United States and to the stability of the world would be "the world's most dangerous weapons falling into the hands of the world's most dangerous terrorists." And all the elements of national power – including diplomatic, economic and military – must be integrated to advance the cause of peace.
"When properly employed," said Mr. Hadley, these tools can be mutually reinforcing. Hard power makes soft power more effective. And by maintaining the credible threat of military force and economic sanctions, we add weight to our diplomacy."Muslim Cleric: 'All Jews Must be Killed'
French Synagogue Firebombed
Foreign Confidential....
Two Molotov cocktails were hurled at a synagogue north of Paris, the latest attack in what France's interior minister said Monday is a new wave of anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim attacks over the violence in Gaza. No injuries were reported.
President Nicolas Sarkozy met with religious leaders and reiterated the need to avoid "transposing" onto French soil a foreign conflict the country has been working to ease, his office said.
Firebombs broke a window and charred the walls of a pizzeria on the ground floor at Chabad House Ohr Manahem, in the town of Saint-Denis, said Isroeil Belinow, the synagogue's assistant rabbi. Belinow said police found 15 other unignited firebombs nearby.
Interior Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said France has faced a "very clear increase" in anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim attacks since Israel started an offensive against the militant group Hamas in Gaza on Dec. 27.
"We must do everything to stop the importation into our country of the situation that's taking place in the Middle East," Alliot-Marie told RTL Radio.
She declined to provide specific figures on the increase, though insisted police have been instructed to protect religious sites and places of worship.
France has Western Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim populations, and Middle East tensions have in the past spilled over into vandalism or other incidents.
In the Chabad House attack, prayers had just finished and the rabbi was getting ready to go home Sunday night when he heard an explosion, Belinow said. Neighbors saw flames and called police.
- AP
Tuesday, 13 January 2009
The following is an editorial reflecting the views of the U.S. Government.
Chabad House North of Paris Hit
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