Friday, 30 January 2009

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Today's Daily Reckoning:

Wall Street Gets the Boot
London, England
Friday, January 30, 2009

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*** Doing whatever it takes to get prices up – and you know what that means...a record-breaking December...

*** Shameful bonuses on Wall Street...the capitalist system is deleveraging, while the public sector is leveraging...

*** When the fixes make the situation worse...the next Poniz scheme: U.S. government...and more!

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There is no idea so absurd that the majority of people won’t come to believe it ...when it suits them.

We saw yesterday that the chattering classes are moving towards inflation. Rising prices are no longer seen as evil; they are good.

Of course, it takes time to overcome well-established taboos, prejudices and good sense. But every day, the talkers are on the TV stations...the writers are in the newspapers and magazines...and the blowhard economists are in parliaments worldwide.

“Inflation is good,” they say.

We’re ready to do “whatever it takes” to get prices rising again, says the new U.S. Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner.

What will it take? Economists and policymakers debate...but gradually a consensus is taking shape: it takes inflation!

The Dow fell 227 point yesterday. Gold rose $25 – it’s back over $900.

Records were broken. New houses didn’t sell in December – at a record pace. Consumer confidence fell to a record low. And the number of people getting jobless benefits rose to a record high.

Kodak said it was letting 3.5 to 4.5 thousand people go. Sprint cut 8,000. Corning axed 4,900. Unemployment is up in every state, reports the Wall Street Journal .

And the airline industry said it lost $5 billion last year.

There is a report at CNN about a woman who lost her $80,000 a year job and then couldn’t find anything nearly as good. She’s earning less than a quarter that amount, working at some make-do employment. “I never imagined in a million years,” that something like this could happen to me, she said.

Little by little, the gravity of the situation is sinking in. The economy is weakening. But government is strengthening. Money, power...and hopes for the future...are flowing in its direction.

Yesterday was a day of strikes throughout France. Elizabeth reports:

“I got to Paris on the train. The metro wasn’t running...or at least, that’s what it said on the sign. So, I stood in line for about an hour to get a taxi. Then, the taxi got caught up in a traffic jam and it took another hour to get home.

“As usual, the unions were protesting all sorts of things. They each have their own complaint. But they becoming very active... They see that capitalism has been weakened, and its leaders are confused, so they’re moving to the attack. They think they have an opportunity to get more privileges...more benefits... And they’re probably right.”

Yes, dear reader, capitalists have been whacked so hard they are dizzy. They wobble on their pins... slur their words and speak incoherently. The world improvers see their chance. They’re moving in with their rabbit punches and haymakers. They hope to wallop the rich hard... “squeeze them until the pips squeak,” as a British Labor prime minister once put it.

Yesterday, President Obama, seeing Wall Street on the mat, walked over and gave it the boot.

The $18 billion in bonuses, paid out on to Wall Street honchos last year, were “shameful,” said he. It was the “height of irresponsibility” to take so much capital out of the system when it was losing money, he pointed out.

Of course, he’s right. It was certainly irresponsible. And the Wall Street crowd deserves the boot, no doubt about it. But it’s a shame no one mentioned it in 2006 or 2007 – not even Mr. Obama – when the bonuses and the irresponsibility were even higher. In 2006, the bonuses rose to $62 billion...as the street sold trillions worth of CDOs, MBSs, and other unmentionables.

But that’s just the way it works. As we keep saying, the ‘innocent fraud’ of the market is OUT. Armed robbery is IN.

Government – in the hands of the world improvers – doesn’t flimflam investors like Dick Fuld and Hank Paulson did. Instead, it creates a Bernie Madoff fraud – a pyramid scheme that even the Egyptians would envy. And, unlike Wall Street, Washington takes money from people even without asking...like a convenience store stick-up man without the stocking on his head.

And now – in the confusion of the credit crisis – their hour has come round at last...the politicians and world improvers are coming out swinging, grappling, kicking – getting all the power and money they can, while the getting’s good.

*** While the capitalist system is de-leveraging, the public sector is leveraging. First, the government is taking debt away from the private sector banks and investment houses...moving it onto its own books. Second, it is borrowing like there’s no tomorrow. (Leading us to humbly predict that there are relatively fewer tomorrows than yesterdays for the dollar-based international monetary system.)

 David Leonhardt, writing in the New York Times , announces:

“Once governments finally decide to use the enormous resources at their disposal, they have typically been able to shock an economy back to life. They can put to work the people, money and equipment sitting idle, until the private sector is willing to begin using them again. The prescription developed almost a century ago by John Maynard Keynes does appear to work.”

Not to us it doesn’t. But that won’t stop Leonhardt, Obama, Frank, Pelosi, Bernanke – or anyone else. Leonhardt goes on to cite economist Mancur Olson, who noticed that things change in a crisis. The bigger the crisis, the more they tend to change.

Leonhardt completely misses Olson’s point. Olson explained how losing WWII actually helped the Germans and Japanese. They were able to restructure their governments and their economies; they became the two most successful economies of the 2nd half of the 20th century. The New York Times columnist thinks this happened because they fixed the system. He thinks that’s what Olson was talking about. Leonhardt even entitles his article, “The Big Fix.” And he uses it to urge the Obama administration to put into place such big ‘fixes’ as a new system of national health care...and a better, national system of education.

But Olson wasn’t talking about fixes at all. The Germans did not fix their system. Neither did the Japanese. Instead, WWII fixed them both. Their industry and their government were destroyed – by bombs, artillery, tanks and aircraft. Olson noticed what comes after destruction: Renaissance.

America is a long way from that. Its politicians and opinion mongers – such as Leonhardt – are still in their bunkers...still directing what is left of their troops. Still raising money. Still taxing. Still spending. Still fixing. They hope to save the system, not rebuild on the ruins.

Here at The Daily Reckoning , we believe their fixes actually make the situation worse...and hasten the day when the whole thing collapses.

*** “I’m not optimistic about the global economy,” says our old friend, Marc Faber. “The next Madoff case – the next Ponzi scheme – is the U.S. government. It will go bust. It is only a question of time.”

When will the U.S. government go bust? When the weight of all the fixes finally crushes it. That is when the last bubble of the entire bubble cycle finally explodes – when the government itself is de-leveraged...when U.S. Treasury bonds crash...and the dollar comes down.

What do you do to protect yourself? There aren’t too many choices. Because you never know when or how it will happen.

“Gold functions as a protection against your central bank doing stupid things,” says Felix Zulauf.

“One day the price of gold will be higher than the Dow Jones,” adds Faber.

(Here, we urge dear readers to take advantage of what is a relatively low price for the precious metal...and stock up now. There is a way to still get gold for just a penny per ounce...learn about it here. )

Faber, in Barron’s makes a couple other suggestions:

Short the Treasury bond market, using the Pro-Shares Ultra-short Lehman 20+ Yr. ETF. It moves twice as much, inverse to the long Treasury market.

Buy Gabriel Resources. It’s a Canadian company that could “go ballistic,” says Faber, when the mining sector takes off.

Keep reading for today’s essay, below...

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Guest Essay:

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: When it comes to war and adultery, make-believe may be better than the real thing. Certainly, it is safer. In the War on Terror, the enemy had no tanks...no aircraft...no ships...no armies...no celebrated strategists...no famous generals...no sophisticated weapons...no military culture...no leather trench coats...no burnished helmets...no battle cries... The problem was, it was hard to find the enemy at all. Bill Bonner explores...

THE GOOD WAR
by Bill Bonner

The Washington Post reports that the War on Terror is over. No armistice has been announced. No treaty has been signed. The whole thing is just being dropped quietly, like a burnt-out cigarette. Too bad. It was our favorite war.

In the few words that follow, we explain why. First, the background:

“The history of the world is but the biography of great men,” was Thomas Carlyle’s contribution to the genre. But here at The Daily Reckoning we are more of the ‘cometh the hour, cometh the man’ school of history. When something needs doing...there is always finds some clown dim enough to do it. Osama bin Laden was that man.

“Bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy”, was what he was up to, he said in a videotape. He even did the math. “Every dollar spent by al-Qaida in attacking the US has cost Washington $1m (£545,000) in economic fallout and military spending,” said the report.

“We, alongside the mujahideen, bled Russia for 10 years, [in Afghanistan] until it went bankrupt ... So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

How many generations will still tell of bin Laden’s triumph? He brought down not just one empire, but two. His band of terrorists leeched the Soviets so thoroughly, they fainted. It was no coincidence that the Soviets lost Afghanistan in the same year their empire disintegrated. Then, he delivered a challenge to the America’s ‘amour propre.’

The attack on the World Trade Center incited a death wish. The feds flashed a Red Alert; Americans cowered in their houses and sealed their windows and doors against biological attack. The 9/11 attackers could have been pursued by the usual gendarmes – at negligible cost. Instead, in the general panic, the Bush administration decided to go all out. Thus it was that the greatest stimulus package since WWII began – in haste and in delusion.

The federal budget went from its biggest surpluses to its biggest deficits. Interest rates were cut too – to an emergency rate of 1%. Within 24 months, the bubble in the Nasdaq was replaced by much bigger bubbles – in housing, finance, derivative debt, art, private equity, executive compensation, student loans and other forms of private debt. In effect, bin Laden suckered the fattest man on earth into having another éclair. The thunder coming from the financial markets for the past 18 months is the noise of his midriff exploding.

But we are not writing to complain about Osama bin Laden or the Bush Administration’s reaction. When it comes to war and adultery, make-believe may be better than the real thing. Certainly, it is safer. In the War on Terror, the enemy had no tanks...no aircraft... no ships...no armies...no celebrated strategists...no famous generals...no sophisticated weapons...no military culture...no leather trench coats...no burnished helmets...no battle cries.... The problem was, it was hard to find the enemy at all. The Department of Homeland Security conducted 3 billion airport inspections looking for them. We remember getting patted down so thoroughly we felt we should leave a tip. But how many enemy combatants do you think they nabbed? Not a one.

There are two possibilities. The first is that the security procedures were so fearsome that terrorists dared not try anything funny. The second is that there weren’t really many terrorists at large – at least, not in the United States of America.

But compare it to WWI or WWII...or even a penny ante affair like the Spanish American war. The War on Terror mobilized the whole nation in a Great National Cause...at much expense, much damage to the Constitution, and much inconvenience, but without actually causing much real suffering. Sure, a few hapless Muslims, caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, were put on the rack. And yes, the cops in London gunned down a Brazilian electrician. Back in the United States, young couples did not embrace as they had in WWII – that is, as if there would be no tomorrow. Instead, they spent money as if there would be no tomorrow! No doubt, the desperate spending contributed to the bankruptcy of the whole system of bubble finance. But compared to the pain of a shooting war; the War on Terror was a delight. As far as we know, the Department of Homeland Security suffered not a single casualty. Not even any self-inflicted wounds. No executions for treason. And hardly any reported cases, neither of fleeing in the face of the enemy...nor collaborating...nor sabotage.

What a shame to let such a marvelous war to end without even a victory parade. Some of the agents should at least get medals for courage under fire...or exceptional valor.

Perhaps some special award Such as the special agents who arrested Tamera Jo Freeman. A ‘Black Heart’ medal might be appropriate. The woman was on a flight to Denver when her children got into a squabble. She spanked them both...and then Homeland Security agents put the cuffs on her. Charged with committing an “act of terrorism” she spent three months in jail and lost custody of her children.

And there ought to be some medal for the Pentagon flatfoot who put the long arm of American law all the way across the Atlantic and onto the shoulder of Gary McKinnon. Mr. McKinnon, as the mayor of London informed us on Tuesday, believes in UFOs. And to prove that the U.S. army is hiding information on extraterrestrials, he hacked into the Pentagon’s computer...leaving his email address and a message: “Your security is crap.”

Rather than thank him for this useful observation, the Defense Department no doubt put out a billion dollar consulting contract for someone to tell them their security is crap...and put out a warrant for Mr. McKinnon’s arrest on a terrorism charge. That kind of service above and beyond the call of duty should be recognized.

So form up the battalions of veterans! Assemble the legions of luggage inspectors and metal detector operators...and all the thousands of investigators, worn down by five years of following leads to nowhere! Dress them up in bright, clean uniforms...and give them their moment of glory. Pin medals on their chests. Then have a jolly march down Fifth Avenue. Line the streets. Give them a hearty hoorah as they march by. Throw out the ticker tape. Young girls ...fling yourselves at them...and get a kiss! And then, send them home.

Enjoy your weekend,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

Editor’s Note: Bill Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily Reckoning . He is also the author, with Addison Wiggin, of the national best sellers Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century and Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis .

Bill’s latest book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics , written with co-author Lila Rajiva, is available now by clicking here:

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