Wednesday, February 11, 2009Israeli Elections: Major swing to the Right, but how far?
It is clear that there has been a major swing to the Right due to today's elections in Israel, but it is not clear yet how far, and how much this will affect the composition of the next government. Here are the results, according to the major exit polls, by bloc:
So far, both the polls and early voting results show a clear trend away from the Left and the religious parties towards the Right. The Arab parties traditionally support the Left but have never served in a government. The religious parties tend to support the Right but normally one or two religious parties can be wooed into a Left-wing government as well. That means that Tzippi Livni and Kadima may be given the opportunity to create a government, but under much worse conditions than a few months ago when Livni tried to form a government and failed. According to the exit polls she would need at least two religious parties or one major Right-wing party to create a 61-seat majority, which by itself would be a substantial shift to the Right from the current coalition. It would also leave a much more powerful Right-wing opposition than there is in the current Knesset. A more natural coalition would be a Right/religious coalition but that depends on the final results, who President Shimon Peres chooses to be the first leader to try to form a coalition, and the dynamics of the coalition-building process. The big question: how similar will the final results be to the exit polls? All polls in Israel seem to be slanted to the Left. Even massive exit polls with tens of thousands of respondents tend to be wrong by substantially more than the statistical margin of error. Apparently this is due to the political bias of the pollsters, their choice of questions, their lack of ability to reach a truly representative sample, and/or the lack of truthfullness of all the responses. Sometimes this is noticed, as when Benjamin Netanyahu squeaked out a victory in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. Sometimes it is not noticed, as in 1992 when an exit poll of 20,000 people showed that the Left (Labor and Meretz) had a majority of 61 seats. In the end they only had 56, which was an error of 8.2%. Even small polls of 500 respondants are supposed to have a margin of error of only 4%; with 20,000 respondants the margin of error should have been close to zero. But the incompetent polling was ignored since the Left still had a "blocking majority" with the Arab parties and went on to create a coalition. Are tonight's exit polls slanted to the Left as they have been so many times in recent years? If so, Benjamin Netanyahu may again squeak out a victory, as he did in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. If not, he may still get a chance to form a government, either now or later. So far (at 1:30 AM Israel time) the early results show an even bigger lead for the Right/Religious bloc and an even narrower lead for Kadima over Likud, but it is going to be a long night before the final results are in.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009Exit Polls: Kadima Holds Slim Lead Over LikudThe polls closed at 10:00 PM and the major Israeli media [here, here and here] have published their exit polls and initial election returns which show Tzipi Livni and Kadima with a slim 2 Knesset seat lead over the Likud and its party leader Binyamin Netanyahu. The exit polls indicate that Kadima won 28-30 Knesset seats while the Likud garnered 27-28 Knesset seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party won 14-15 seats while Ehud Barak and the Labor party showed 13 seats on all of the exit polls. Shas finished fifth winning between 9-10 seats. The early voting returns (as of 1:10 AM in Israel) reflect the same pattern as the exit polls, but with an even narrower gap between Kadima and Likud, and slightly stronger results for the Right/Religious bloc at the expense of the Left/Arab bloc: Kadima has 28 seats; Likud, 27; Yisrael Beiteinu, 16; Labor, 13 and Shas, 11. The returns to this point show a potential right-wing coalition block of 67 Knesset seats and the strong possibility that Netanyahu and Likud would likely be designated to form the government by President Shimon Peres, although Likud finished 2nd to Kadima in the voting. Ynet's Attila Somfalvi, however writes of the possibility that the election results could compel a prime ministerial power-sharing rotation between Netanyahu and Livni recalling the rotation which followed the 1984 election between Likud's Yitzchak Shamir and Labor's then leader Shimon Peres.
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Israeli Elections: Major swing to the Right, but how far?
It is clear that there has been a major swing to the Right due to today's elections in Israel, but it is not clear yet how far, and how much this will affect the composition of the next government. Here are the results, according to the major exit polls, by bloc:
So far, both the polls and early voting results show a clear trend away from the Left and the religious parties towards the Right.
The Arab parties traditionally support the Left but have never served in a government. The religious parties tend to support the Right but normally one or two religious parties can be wooed into a Left-wing government as well.
That means that Tzippi Livni and Kadima may be given the opportunity to create a government, but under much worse conditions than a few months ago when Livni tried to form a government and failed. According to the exit polls she would need at least two religious parties or one major Right-wing party to create a 61-seat majority, which by itself would be a substantial shift to the Right from the current coalition. It would also leave a much more powerful Right-wing opposition than there is in the current Knesset.
A more natural coalition would be a Right/religious coalition but that depends on the final results, who President Shimon Peres chooses to be the first leader to try to form a coalition, and the dynamics of the coalition-building process.
The big question: how similar will the final results be to the exit polls?
All polls in Israel seem to be slanted to the Left. Even massive exit polls with tens of thousands of respondents tend to be wrong by substantially more than the statistical margin of error. Apparently this is due to the political bias of the pollsters, their choice of questions, their lack of ability to reach a truly representative sample, and/or the lack of truthfullness of all the responses.
Sometimes this is noticed, as when Benjamin Netanyahu squeaked out a victory in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. Sometimes it is not noticed, as in 1992 when an exit poll of 20,000 people showed that the Left (Labor and Meretz) had a majority of 61 seats. In the end they only had 56, which was an error of 8.2%. Even small polls of 500 respondants are supposed to have a margin of error of only 4%; with 20,000 respondants the margin of error should have been close to zero. But the incompetent polling was ignored since the Left still had a "blocking majority" with the Arab parties and went on to create a coalition.
Are tonight's exit polls slanted to the Left as they have been so many times in recent years? If so, Benjamin Netanyahu may again squeak out a victory, as he did in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. If not, he may still get a chance to form a government, either now or later.
So far (at 1:30 AM Israel time) the early results show an even bigger lead for the Right/Religious bloc and an even narrower lead for Kadima over Likud, but it is going to be a long night before the final results are in.
| Bloc | Current Knesset | Exit Polls |
| Arab Parties | 10 | 9 |
| Left | 60 | 46-48 |
| Right | 27 | 45 |
| Religious | 23 | 18-20 |
So far, both the polls and early voting results show a clear trend away from the Left and the religious parties towards the Right.
The Arab parties traditionally support the Left but have never served in a government. The religious parties tend to support the Right but normally one or two religious parties can be wooed into a Left-wing government as well.
That means that Tzippi Livni and Kadima may be given the opportunity to create a government, but under much worse conditions than a few months ago when Livni tried to form a government and failed. According to the exit polls she would need at least two religious parties or one major Right-wing party to create a 61-seat majority, which by itself would be a substantial shift to the Right from the current coalition. It would also leave a much more powerful Right-wing opposition than there is in the current Knesset.
A more natural coalition would be a Right/religious coalition but that depends on the final results, who President Shimon Peres chooses to be the first leader to try to form a coalition, and the dynamics of the coalition-building process.
The big question: how similar will the final results be to the exit polls?
All polls in Israel seem to be slanted to the Left. Even massive exit polls with tens of thousands of respondents tend to be wrong by substantially more than the statistical margin of error. Apparently this is due to the political bias of the pollsters, their choice of questions, their lack of ability to reach a truly representative sample, and/or the lack of truthfullness of all the responses.
Sometimes this is noticed, as when Benjamin Netanyahu squeaked out a victory in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. Sometimes it is not noticed, as in 1992 when an exit poll of 20,000 people showed that the Left (Labor and Meretz) had a majority of 61 seats. In the end they only had 56, which was an error of 8.2%. Even small polls of 500 respondants are supposed to have a margin of error of only 4%; with 20,000 respondants the margin of error should have been close to zero. But the incompetent polling was ignored since the Left still had a "blocking majority" with the Arab parties and went on to create a coalition.
Are tonight's exit polls slanted to the Left as they have been so many times in recent years? If so, Benjamin Netanyahu may again squeak out a victory, as he did in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. If not, he may still get a chance to form a government, either now or later.
So far (at 1:30 AM Israel time) the early results show an even bigger lead for the Right/Religious bloc and an even narrower lead for Kadima over Likud, but it is going to be a long night before the final results are in.
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