| Irish seeking the warm embrace of the EU | |
After months of economic battering and relentless political pressure the Irish appear to be about - yet again - to reverse their earlier decision on an EU referendum - this time the Lisbon Treaty.
This has a flavour of “Keep good hold of nurse, For fear of getting something worse” about it. The Irish must be scared about their economy more than most as the euro has strengthened against the pound and the dollar. As Ireland’s main export markets are the USA and Britain the collapse in the Irish economy and mass unemployment is far worse than in most countries. National debt is so high that along with Greece, Portugal and Spain the national credit rating has been downgraded.
Although the EU cannot help them the population clearly can’t see can other saviour.
They’ll learn the hard way.
Christina
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IRISH TIMES 16.2.09
Most would vote Yes as FG, Labour alter stance
ANALYISIS: Support for the Lisbon Treaty has grown, driven mainly by farmers and the well-off, writes STEPHEN COLLINS .
THE CONTINUING swing to the Yes side in the latest Irish Times / TNS mrbi poll reflects a decisive shift in opinion among Fine Gael and Labour voters in favour of the Lisbon Treaty since the referendum last June. Overall, 51 per cent of voters say they would vote Yes.
As the economic crisis deepened over the past few months, support for the treaty among middle-class voters has hardened considerably and farmers have swung into the Yes camp in large numbers.
The only group now opposed to the treaty are the least well-off DE social category voters.
While a majority of women have also come into the Yes camp, they are still considerably less enthusiastic about it than male voters.
Support for the treaty among the most well-off AB social category is now running at 66 per cent, while opposition to it has dropped to 18 per cent.
Among farmers, 66 per cent are also now in favour, with 22 per cent against.
The poll question is based on the conclusions of the EU summit in December that Ireland will be allowed to retain an EU commissioner in a clarification of the treaty, and that legal guarantees on other Irish concerns such as neutrality, taxation and abortion will be produced before the referendum.
The continuing shift in opinion into the Yes camp since the last Irish Times poll in November will come as a boost for the Yes side.
It should be noted, however, that the Irish Times polls in January and May also indicated a clear lead for the Yes side and it was only the final poll of the campaign that put the No side ahead.
One key difference between this and the poll of a year ago is that a substantial majority of voters have come to a clear view on the issue.
The poll in January of last year showed that 64 per cent had no opinion and even the May poll, in the middle of the referendum campaign, found that 47 per cent had no opinion. Now more than 80 per cent of the voters have a view on the issue and, even if all 16 per cent of the undecided voters swing into the No camp, the treaty would still be carried.
Among the women, 47 per cent intend to vote Yes, while 35 per cent will vote No and 19 per cent are undecided.
This represents a shift since the last poll in November, which showed a majority of women were still in the No camp.
Men are more decisively for the treaty – by 56 per cent to 32 per cent – with just 12 per cent having no opinion. Again this represents a shift into the Yes camp since November.
In regional terms, the Yes lead is now biggest in Connacht and Ulster, where 53 per cent support the treaty and 30 per cent are on the No side.
The Yes lead in Dublin is 52 per cent to 34 per cent, while in Munster it is 50 per cent to 31 per cent and in the rest of Leinster 50 per cent to 36 per cent.
In party terms, 60 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters intend to vote Yes and 31 per cent No.
Fine Gael supporters are equally strongly in favour by 59 per cent to 29 per cent.
Among Labour voters, the Yes side is ahead by 53 per cent to 34 per cent, and among Green voters by 57 per cent to 33 per cent.
Sinn Féin is the only party whose supporters are still opposed to the treaty – by 49 per cent to 30 per cent – but the No lead among party supporters has declined.
Private sector workers are marginally more inclined to favour Lisbon than public sector workers, but the undecided group is much larger among public servants.
Asked if, in the current crisis, it is better for Ireland to be part of the EU, an overwhelming majority of 80 per cent to 13 per cent say Yes, with a very small number of undecided voters at 13 per cent.
There is a substantial majority in favour of the EU among all social classes, age groups and party supporters.
Sinn Féin and Green Party voters are easily the most negative about the EU, but there is still a decisive majority in all parties in favour.
Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour voters are all equally enthusiastic about the EU.
In class terms, the best-off AB group is the most supportive; the poorest DE group the most negative.
In age terms, older voters over 50 are the most positive, while those in the 18-24 age group are the most negative.
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