We can't have "perceptions"

Monday, February 02, 2009

We can't have "perceptions"

Breaking a recent vow never to listen to BBC radio, I took the time out to enjoy reporters, commentators and sundry others twittering on about the foreign workers' dispute, noting how completely out of their depth they all were, especially the MPPs, who seemed to have little idea of what they were talking about (so what else is new?).

After all these years of ignoring the EU, pretending it wasn't happening, and now it is leaping up and biting them on their hairy a***s, and they don't know what to make of it. Thus we get Alan Johnson, the Health Secretary – and former union leader – blathering on about the need for "fresh directives" in order to make it clear that British workers cannot be undercut on their own turf.

This is backed by the Unions who also want "a new EU directive" to overturn the Viking and Laval un Partner cases, clearly failing to understand that all the ECJ was doing was clarifying that which has been in the Treaty of Rome since 1957.

What these poor darlings actually want, therefore, is not so much a new directive as a new treaty – which, of course, they cannot have. Thus, one suspects they are thrashing around looking for a way our of an intractable problem, having to confront that looming elephant, which is getting more visible by the day.

Also great fun is watching the great europhiliac Peter Mandelson squiriming, trying to explain to us that its "alright chaps" – you can go and get jobs in Italy. "Let them eat cake", doesn't even begin to measure up to that piece ofhauteur.

Paul Kenny, leader of the GMB was less than impressed, spitting with rage, declaring that, "For Mandelson to come out with the Norman Tebbit line to get on your bike and go to Brussels is outrageous."

Then we have the Lord M telling us that us that there is "no problem" with EU rules as Total – owners of the Lindsey oil refinery – have provided "full reassurance" and dispelled the "perception" that Britons had been discriminated against. Planet, which, on?

The revered Gordon isn't having an easy time of it either. Saddled with his fatuous slogan, "British Wogs for British Dogs" … no, sorry that was the BNP slogan – "British jobs for British workers," he is now telling these ardent jobseekers, looking for rapidly vanishing stock of British jobs, that these "wildcat strikes" are "not defensible". They were "not the right thing to do," says the man who has already given most of his job to foreign workers, yet still gets pay increases.

There is even more merriment to be had from the Lib-Dums warning that challenging EU labour laws would be a "huge, self-defeating step too far", as they desperately seek to prevent their darling EU gurgling down the plug hole as British workers finally get wise to the joys of being socommunautaire. The blue flag is about to follow the same route as the red flag, in that deliciously irreverent song.

Needless to say, pretend eurosceptic "two jobs Willy" Hague, wants it both ways. The Conservatives "strongly support" the free movement of Labour within the EU – presumably he is not talking about the Labour Party, as he is more interested in one-way movement there. "In Europe and screwed by Europe", wasn't it?

Meanwhile, when they've finished devising new and interesting things to do with blue flags,today up to 1,000 construction workers at Sellafield may be telling Mr Brown what he can do with his slogans, and thinking up some of their own. Some might even offer suggestions for doing new and interesting things with all sorts of objects. Why stop at flags?

However, they might be beaten by the rush of global warming we have been having lately, which might actually stop them getting to work in order to stop working. 

The last word, however, must go to Sadiq Khan, the Kommunities Minister, who is telling us: "What we cannot have is the perception that foreign companies are abusing the rules of the EU to penalise British workers who have the skills to do the job." 

We most certainly cannot have "perceptions". Whatever next?

COMMENT THREAD

Sunday, February 01, 2009

A promise of peace

Having spent the last three months immersed in writing up an account of the Iraqi occupation in the British sector, from May 2003 to date, the "great work" is finished all bar the all-important processes of editing, cleaning up and revision. Writing 90,000 words, give or take, has been an interesting experience, and highly educative. If anything, I am appalled at my own ignorance when I embarked on the project.

The story, though, is not quite at an end. British troops cease operations in May and must be out of the country by the end of July, barring 400 or so who will continue training and mentoring duties. 

Already, the British government and the military are re-writing history to make out that the occupation was a tremendous success, achieving everything they set out to achieve. Everything went to plan, especially if – as Montgomery was often accused of doing – you re-write that plan after then event and forget what you said at the time.

Aside from the posturing of the British, great events are taking place with the regional elections completed yesterday and the count underway. Little of what is at stake, however, emerges in the British media, and one must look elsewhere for a hint of what is important.

If you know what you are looking for, The Washington Post provides that hint. Buried in its syndicated report, you find a suggestion that the election was "in part" a referendum on two of Iraq's influential personalities – Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

While al-Maliki hopes to deepen his growing influence through election victories by his loyalists, we are told, al-Sadr is hoping to reverse his waning political clout by supporting independent candidates.

That indeed is the issue. More than anything, it was Sadr's Mahdi Army which cast is reign of terror over Basra and the south, latterly displacing the Fadhila and Badr militias, to become the major threat to peace and stability, not only in the south, but in the whole of Iraq. The hope is that Sadr is a busted flush, and there is every reason to think that this is the case.

In that context, you will find numerous references to last year's "Charge of the Knights" operation, masterminded by Maliki, when the grip of the Mahdi Army was broken in Basra. However, while Muqtada was faced down, he was not defeated. In 2004, in the first Mahdi Army uprisings, his attacks were seen off and his followers sustained heavy losses. They were to gather strength and return in greater force.

This time, however, it is different. Earlier, Sadr's armoury and weapons distribution centre in Maysan, with its hub in al Amarah, was theoretically under British control but, in fact, under the control of the Mahdi Army, left largely undisturbed. As long as this centre remained undisturbed, Muqtada had stocks of weapons, and a cadre of fighters on which he could rely.

What makes the current so different is that, now, al Amarah has been neutralised. And, while "Charge of the Nights" was well-reported, in which the media consistently called it wrong, the follow-up operation, barely reported, was far more significant, a comprehensive and humiliating defeat for Muqtada.

As far as we can ascertain, the operation actually started last May, with US Air Force F-16s and Navy F-18 Hornets and Super Hornet bombers performing "shows of force" and precision bombing through May and into June. At one stage, an RAF Tornado joined the fray. More airpower, it seemed, was committed to this stage of the operation than the British had enjoyed throughout their whole tenure in Maysan.

As this phase of the operation started, on or around 10 May, Iraqi Special Operations Forces detained three suspected "Special Groups criminals" in al-Amarah. On 5 June, the unit mounted another raid into the city and captured one more such "criminal". As guests of the Iraqi Army, one can only speculate on the hospitality they were afforded – and the intelligence they offered in exchange. Nine days after the second raid, Iraqi and US troops were pouring into the area, ringing the city. Operation Basha'er as-Salaam – "Promise of Peace" – had begun. 

Backed by the Iraqi Army's 10th Division, special forces units, and elements of the US 10th Mountain and 1st Cavalry Divisions, amounting to some 22,000 troops in all, Maliki issued an ultimatum to the Mahdi Army. Repeating the successful strategy he had used in Basra, he gave them three days to lay down their arms – offering an amnesty to those who did. He also offered cash for any heavy weapons surrendered. 

Maliki was, he said, giving the "outlaws and the members of the organised crime groups a last chance to review their stance." Iraqi and US soldiers then set up security checkpoints on the main roads, distributing leaflets urging people to stay indoors and remain calm.

To press home the point, US Navy Hornets made low passes over the city. Faced with such overwhelming force, Muqtada caved in, sending a delegation to the city to order his fighters to stand down. And it was a complete and utter capitulation. While Muqtada had made a fight of it in Basra, here he held his hands up and surrendered.

On 19 June, as the ultimatum expired, the troops moved in. Not a shot was fired. Militia fighters were seen throwing their weapons into the canals. One of the first targets for the troops was Mayor, who was arrested and detained, with about 16 other Sadr organisation officials.

Moving through the rest of the silent, fearful city, the Iraqi Army brought with them a secret weapon - over 10,000 halal ready-meals. Setting up distribution points in 12 neighbourhoods, they handed them out to all comers. By midday, the streets were thronging with life.

Following the troops were "community transportation improvement teams," ready to start a programme of city public works and highway sanitation. Before that, teams of national police, brought in with the troops, conducted house-to-house searches.

Far from meeting resistance, as had the British, they met with enthusiastic citizens telling them where to look. The results speak for themselves. Within days, the search teams had detained approximately 200 militia and collected more than 220 weapon caches, distributed in homes, businesses and public areas throughout the city.

The haul amounted to 2,262 mortar bombs, 1,034 mines, 971 artillery rounds, 749 rocket-propelled grenades, 598 rockets, 259 missile launchers, 176 IEDs, 259 grenades, 43 heavy machine-gun barrels, 141 EFPs and 22 missiles. After a month of occupation, the Iraqi Army had not seen a single gunfight, not one IED attack, nor received any indirect fire.

Operations continued in Maysan, occasionally meeting with sporadic resistance. It was quickly suppressed, and more caches were found. On 16 August, Iraqi and US troops discovered near al Amarah, 250 EFP plates, 125 107 mm rockets, two rocket launchers, 15 120 mm mortar bombs, one mortar tube and two sniper rifles.

By early October, Col Philip Battaglia, commander of the 4th Brigade Combat Team of the Army's 1st Cavalry Division, was confident that the resistance had been broken. The weapons haul now exceeded 8,000, including about 600 EFPs.

Said Battaglia, "al-Amarah ... was an area where these devices were assembled and then from there shipped to other parts of the country, into Baghdad and other places." He added, "We believe - we know - that we have interrupted the flow of these explosives." 

Gen Petraeus then announced that the flow of weapons was drying up throughout Iraq. "We think we are literally running out of safe havens and strongholds and starting to run out of these areas where there were these very significant caches," he said. 

With that, the scourge of al Amarah was ending. Muqtada's power base had been broken and, since then, there has been a return to near-normality in Maysan province.

The elections held on Saturday were the first opportunity for Iraqi citizens to pronounce a verdict on the operations. From the look of it, Maliki's supporters seem to have made string gains in the south, especially in Basra and also in Muqtada's earlier stronghold, Najaf.

Even then, a later report in the Washington Post is reading it wrong. That puts the contest as between the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and Maliki's Dawa Party and his allies, but the real battle is indeed between Muqtada and Maliki.

If the unofficial results are confirmed, then there is hope for the peoples of Iraq, and some optimism that this beleaguered country might at last see that "promise of peace". If it does, the turning point may have been Basra, but the enemy was defeated in al Amarah – without a shot being fired.

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Pointing in the wrong direction

Given a choice between a heatwave in southern Australia, which is reckoned to have cost the lives of 19 people, and a severe ice storm in mid-Western USA, killing at least 42 people and leaving 1.3 million without power, which story would you run?

Well, for the warmist Telegraph, that is a no-brainer. You run not one, nortwo but three stories on Australia in quick succession, making sure all your readers are told that this is the "worst heatwave in more than 150 years", where the temperature has climbed to 43°C for three successive days in Melbourne, about 7°C less than a typical summer in southern Iraq.

What you don't point out is that if it was hotter 150 years ago, then this pre-dates the infamous "global warming", concern for which drives this piece. Just for balance, though, you include two lines telling us, "In the southern areas of the United States, thousands of people were still stuck without power after terrible ice storms."

In those "southern areas" things are bad. In some parts of rural Kentucky, there is no water because the power supply to the water utilities has failed. About a million people were still without electric Friday, and small communities are frantically struggling to help their residents. 

Some are asking people to evacuate their homes and head south to find shelter, with tiny Crittenden County housing about 9,000 people in emergency accommodation in the town's elementary school and other public buildings.

The fight to return power to Kentucky and other areas affected by the ice storm is difficult because of the sheer number of outages, but also because of the ice itself. Crews have joined the effort from around the country but, even as conditions ease, it gets worse. As ice is melting, power lines and tree limbs are springing upward and hitting other power lines.

Currently, reports indicate that there is no immediate relief in sight. In Kentucky alone, about 545,000 people are still without electricity, and 200,000 are without mains water systems, three days after the devastating ice storm hit the state.

The wider point, of course – which has been made several times on this blog – is that, between the notional (but non-existent) warming that the greenies are twittering about, and cooling, the latter is far more dangerous. Al Gore and his mate Jim Hansen, in diverting attention to what is increasingly looking like zero possibility, may be doing more damage than can possibly be imagined, by pointing in the wrong direction.

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