Britannia Radio

THE TIMES         17.2.09
Even Labour MPs are shortselling the bust PM
The defection of the Government's welfare guru is the latest sign 
that Gordon Brown is sliding inexorably to defeat
Rachel Sylvester

Political authority is like market confidence. Once it has gone, it 
is difficult to get back. In a way that is neither fair nor rational 
a slide can quickly turn into a slump.

Just as Lloyd's shares continued to tumble yesterday so the Prime 
Minister's reputation is going through the floor. Gordon Brown has 
had a personal boom and bust every bit as real as the economic one as 
the political market reaches the conclusion that Labour is heading 
for electoral defeat.

The decision by the welfare guru David Freud to resign as a 
government adviser and join the Conservative frontbench [Ahem! A slip 
of the mouse, methinks!   'Join the Conservative team' perhaps-cs]  
is a vivid demonstration of the change in the balance of power. This 
was nothing to do with policy differences and everything to do with 
political reality.
"I got on incredibly well with James Purnell, there was no problem 
about policy," he told me yesterday, "but you have to assess where 
you can make the most impact." You do not have to be Mr Freud's great-
grandfather Sigmund to work out that he believes the Tories will soon 
be in government and wants to work with them on plans that will take 
years to implement.

Just as public figures flocked to Labour in 1997, now celebrities and 
business leaders are following the polls towards the Conservatives. 
Last week it was Carol Vorderman throwing snowballs at David Cameron, 
yesterday a group of TV chefs backed Tory food-labelling plans. Eric 
Schmidt, the head of Google, who has his finger on the zeitgeist, has 
joined the Conservative business council. Richard Caring, owner of 
The Ivy and Le Caprice, who lent Labour £2 million in the 2005 
election campaign, turned up at the Tories' recent black-and-white 
ball with a £70,000 donation in kind. Think-tanks, keen to attract 
business sponsorship, are concentrating on centre-right policies - 
Demos, new Labour's favourite wonk-house, recently launched a project 
on Progressive Conservativism.

Across Whitehall civil servants are carefully pulling back from the 
Labour administration. I am told that it is getting harder to recruit 
fast-streamers for plum jobs in ministerial private offices - the 
bright young things don't want to become too associated with the 
politicians of what they assume to be an out-going regime. Ministers 
have a growing sense that officials are dragging their feet on 
policy. "It's as if they're playing for time until the next lot get 
in, and that creates some tensions," an aide says. The meetings 
between senior civil servants and opposition frontbenchers that take 
place before every election are being conducted with "more 
seriousness" this time.

Meanwhile, politicians are thinking increasingly of life after 
Gordon. Cabinet ministers are jostling for position in preparation 
for the leadership contest that would follow a Labour defeat. Harriet 
Harman - who, as deputy leader, has won one party election - is said 
by colleagues (and rivals) to be campaigning assiduously for the top 
job. Her call for a "class-war law" - putting social class on the 
same footing as race and gender in equality legislation - was seen by 
other ministers as a blatant attempt to suck up to the Labour Left. 
Her demand for an inquiry into whether City bonuses discriminate 
against women was viewed as a cynical attempt to jump on to a 
populist bandwagon. "Harriet's positioning like mad," one senior 
figure says. "She's written off the election and she's thinking about 
herself."

She is not the only one. Ministers claim that Ed Balls, the Schools 
Secretary, is "on manoeuvres" with speaking engagements to party 
groups all over the country - his speech suggesting that the global 
recession would be the worst for 100 years was seen as an attempt to 
reach beyond his ministerial brief. Ed Miliband's opposition to the 
third runway at Heathrow was interpreted by MPs (and No 10) as an 
attempt to appeal to Labour's green wing. Mr Purnell's pronouncements 
on child poverty are scrutinised for signs of modernising zeal. There 
is talk of alliances between some candidates and discussions about 
whom kingmakers such as Lord Mandelson and Jack Straw will back.

It matters little if any of these ministers really are preparing for 
a leadership contest - the idea that every intervention by the 
possible candidates is seen in this light shows how febrile the 
atmosphere in Cabinet is. Indeed, with splits over everything from 
bank bonuses to the third runway being instantly leaked to the press, 
it is increasingly apparent that discipline around Mr Brown's top 
table has broken down. The Prime Minister recently set up a 
communications sub-committee of the national economic council, 
chaired by Lord Mandelson, in an attempt to get the message straight 
on the recession - but with individual ambition taking precedence 
over party unity it will remain difficult for ministers to speak with 
one voice.

There is, I gather, a new row brewing over the long-awaited Bill of 
Rights and Responsibilities. The Prime Minister has been called into 
adjudicate because the Home Office has rejected the original draft 
produced by the Justice Department - "it was supposed to be about 
reducing the political fallout of the Human Rights Act," a source 
says, "but all they came up with was a load more rights. The whole 
thing is a complete fiasco."

The bars and tearooms of Westminster are buzzing with ever more 
bizarre rumours that Mr Brown could create a government of national 
unity with Vince Cable in the Cabinet, or resign to take up a post as 
head of a new global financial regulator. I recently had the first 
text message of the year saying "leadership challenge after local 
elections". It won't happen but the Prime Minister should worry that 
his own MPs are shorting his stock.

  "There is a massive sense of fatalism both among MPs and civil 
servants," a former Cabinet minister says. "Gordon's lost all 
authority. How can this go on for another 16 months?"