Tuesday, 10 March 2009

Jim Rogers' No. 1 trade right now



Tuesday, March 10, 2009


To keep its borrowing costs down, the U.S. government will likely start buying Treasuries… driving prices up and yields down. Jim Rogers says this is only delaying the inevitable inflation and "setting things up for a gigantic fall down the line." 

The Fed has already cut its rate for overnight loans between banks to a range of zero to 0.25% and more than doubled its assets to $1.9 trillion in the past year. Goldman Sachs estimates the U.S. will nearly triple debt sales this year to a record $2.5 trillion. This flood of Treasuries will eventually drive yields up. 

Rogers covered his short position in Treasuries in the fourth quarter at a small loss, but he's "waiting to short them again." He calls the trade "one of the great shorts of our time somewhere down the road.” 

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Crux note: One way to play a fall in long-term Treasu